baseball gods productions

Thoughts about baseball, from the perspective of sports psychology and the role of sports in society. It includes team and player analysis, predictions, and what I think needs to be changed in Major League Baseball. Brought to you from the heart of baseball, Brooklyn, by baseball gods productions.

Sunday, March 18, 2012

Woe is Mets?

Danny Abriano wrote an interesting column on his Rational (Sometimes) Mets Musing blog called When Pessimism Breeds Absurdity. His point is that the Mets are being portrayed as a horrible team, where in reality they are a slightly below average team with the potential to contend in the near future.

He also has a poll for How Many Games Will the Mets Win in 2012? 78% of voters chose either Between 70 and 77 (40%) or Between 78 and 85 (38%). I would say that the Mets will probably win between 76 and 79 games in 2012. They will most likely be fighting the Nationals or perhaps the highly-combustible Marlins for 4th place. Not good, but hardly catastrophic.

The Mets that finish 2012 will look a lot different from the ones that start the season. I expect Mike Pelfrey will be gone, and either Chris Young or Matt Harvey to replace him in the rotation at some point. Some of the relief pitchers will probably be released or traded, and I expect to see some younger guys take their place, possibly even Jenrry Mejia 2.0.

David Wright might be gone by the trading deadline, replaced by a few decent prospects, with Justin Turner likely taking over at 2B and Daniel Murphy sliding over to his natural position at 3B. This one is 50-50, depending on a lot of variables. I would like to see him stay, but won't be devastated if he is traded for some top prospects.

Other possible trade candidates include R. A. Dickey (please don't), Jason Bay (unlikely to find takers), Johan Santana (along with a boat-load of cash, still unlikely), Jon Rauch, Frank Francisco, Ramon Ramirez, Bobby Parnell, Tim Byrdak, Manny Acosta, Ike Davis, and Jon Niese. The last two would only be traded if they get a huge return in prospects.

As of now, this is how I see the opening day 25 man roster:

Ruben Tejada
Daniel Murphy
David Wright
Ike Davis
Jason Bay
Andres Torres
Lucas Duda
Josh Thole
Mike Nickeas
Adam Loewen
Justin Turner
Ronny Cedeño
Lucas May/Mike Baxter/?? (until Scott Hairston comes back)

Johan Santana
R. A. Dickey
Jon Niese
Dillon Gee
Mike Pelfrey
Frank Francisco
Jon Rauch
Ramon Ramirez
Manny Acosta
Bobby Parnell
Garrett Olson (until Byrdak comes back)
Miguel Batista/D.J. Carrasco (if they can't trade him)/Danny Herrera

D.L.: Tim Byrdak, Scott Hairston

The bottom line for me is that I am a Mets fan, so I will follow and root for the team, no matter what. I am curious what moves Sandy Alderson will make, and how the players will perform.

Let's Go Mets! Play Ball!

© Judy Kamilhor 2012