Time to root for the Braves to win the NL East

Last week, I cancelled my DVR recordings of Met games. This week, I am officially rooting for the Braves to beat the Phillies, since obviously the Mets have no chance. I am also hoping against hope that Omar Minaya starts turning some veterans into prospects, otherwise known as "selling."

If he is afraid to sell players because ownership wants to sell tickets, he does not have a good read on the emotional state of Met fans. Most fans, including me, would rather see some hungry, young players brought in to finish the season, instead of watching this collection of broken-down, and/or broken-spirited guys.

It is time to start planning for the future, or at least the part of the future that is 2010. Anyone that is not part of the long-term plan needs to go, especially those guys that have some value to someone else. The Mets should be willing to eat most of their salaries, in order to maximize the return on players such as Gary Sheffield, Livan Hernandez, Brian Schneider, Elmer Dessens, and Luis Castillo. If Carlos Delgado returns this year, I would also include him in the list. It's probably too late to trade Jose Reyes this year, but I would shop him in the off-season.

Castillo, under the most intense fan dislike that one can experience, has actually been the Mets' most consistent offensive contributor this year. If they can entice another team to give up something useful, now is the time, before he gets hurt again, or starts to play like it was 2008.

Baseball is a young man's game, and Omar Minaya is obviously an old man's GM. He needs to adjust or get fired, simple as that. If I were the Wilpons, I would get rid of Minaya, Tony Bernazard, and any other front office guys that are causing division in management. It is time to hire player development experts and fill the organization with great teachers, especially at the lowest levels.

One great move would be to fire Dan Warthen, and hire Greg Maddux to be the pitching coach. The Braves have always had a better GM, a better manager, and usually a better pitching coach than the Mets. It's time to steal one of their great minds and start training pitchers in the Braves' way.

Caroms Off the Wall

You know your team is in trouble when an injury to Fernando Nieve is the final nail in the coffin.


© Judy Kamilhor 2009

Pretty vs. Gritty part two

I ran into an old friend (a Yankee fan) yesterday, and he said he'd read the Mets were grittier than they used to be. He thought that they'd be in great shape when the parade of injured stars comes back in the next few weeks. I agreed that the Mets would certainly be adding more talent than any other team over the next few weeks, even if only half their guys actually make it back. But what happens when you add pretty to gritty? Does the grit rub off on the stars, and make the whole team tougher, or does the pretty rub off on the gritty role-players, and everyone goes back to the way the Mets have played the past two Septembers: full of stars and no toughness at all?

Then the Mets go out and play a crappy game against the Phillies, losing to a guy who hasn't pitched in the major leagues since 2007. Okay, so the team used to be about a 3 on the grit scale of 1-100, and then they went up to about a 22. Much grittier, but in the scheme of things still way behind the Phillies (were a 90, now maybe a 55?) and the Marlins (always at least an 80, even though they kick the ball around a lot). Even the Braves have a good chance to end up ahead of the Mets this year, since they have always beaten the Mets in the player development and player acquisition departments.

When teams get in the mode of waiting for stars to return, they often slump once the guys get back in the lineup, because the guys who have been carrying the load subconsciously ease up. The returning stars haven't gotten their timing and confidence back yet, and suddenly the whole team is spiralling down again.

The key players for the Mets over the next few weeks will be Johan Santana, David Wright, Francisco Rodriguez, and Ryan Church. The current leaders will need to step up and keep it up while the team transitions back into the star-studded, underachieving team of the recent past.

Most importantly, they need Santana to get back to his dominant self that we haven't seen in many weeks. I just think he has to be injured for his slump to go on this long. He doesn't look right at all, his velocity has been down, his strikeouts down, walks up, and his temper has been flaring up an awful lot. The team rarely plays well behind him (true since he joined the team), and it seems to be getting to him.

Fair or not, he has the team on his back, and he needs to do some heavy lifting, with help from Wright, Church, and Rodriguez. If the team expects Reyes, Beltran, Delgado, Maine, Perez, Putz, and Wagner to dramatically improve the results right away, they will be sorely disappointed.


Caroms Off the Wall

About the red hats: give each team a choice of a red, white, or blue hat with the red/white/blue logo, if you absolutely must have these stupid patriotic hats for Memorial Day, July 4th, and whatever else the marketing gurus come up with.

The Mets looked like Phillies or Soviets or Red Chinese. Bad!



© Judy Kamilhor 2009

Maybe Pelfrey needs to sit a bit

Everyone has been asking the question which starters should be replaced when Maine and Perez return. The consensus seems to be that Redding should be replaced by Maine, and Perez should go to the bullpen for a while.

My thought is that when either Perez or Maine is ready--which looks like a couple of weeks at the earliest for either of them--Mike Pelfrey is the one that should be moved to the bullpen for at least one turn, and then Redding when the other starter is ready. Pelfrey has not looked good lately, and my guess is it is some combination of physical and mental fatigue.

Pelfrey is one of those young guys whose total number of innings increased very rapidly from one season to another, and the "Verducci effect" predicts that he will be injured or less effective the following season. I thought a big guy like Pelfrey would not have a problem with all the work, but he seems mentally susceptible to all kinds of distractions and heavy thoughts, so who knows?

In any event, if/when Maine and/or Perez is ready, it makes sense to give Pelfrey a bit of a break, just to see if it helps him get rejuvenated. Right now, Pelfrey is their number two starter, and he's going need to pitch a whole lot better if the Mets want a chance to make the playoffs.

I'm sure they will be shopping Redding as soon as Maine and Perez have shown they are healthy and reliable (as reliable as they can be, that is). I know this won't happen, but the Mets should really consider being a seller rather than a buyer this July, trying to convert some older guys into prospects and hungry younger players. Sheffield, Livan Hernandez, and Carlos Delgado (if he's ready in time) would be the guys I would look to convert into legitimate younger players, if the Mets are willing to pay most of the vets' contracts.

As I've said here for years, getting younger would actually improve their prospects, so to speak, for winning this year, since it is now officially a young man's game again in the post-steroid, post-amphetamine era.

I wouldn't mind no trades at all, but I absolutely don't want to see more prospects and young players shipped off for a fading veteran or two.


Caroms Off the Wall

Fernando Nieve looks like the real deal to me. What a break if it turns out to be true.

© Judy Kamilhor 2009

A Tale of Two Popups

Last night, the Mets visited the new Yankee Stadium in the old Bronx, and the game ended with a predictable outcome: the Yankees won. How it got there was less predictable, although more than most people would think.

The Mets played like they bet against themselves. The game ended on a dropped popup to the second baseman with two outs and runners on first and second. Yes, it was horrifying, but what really stood out to me was that the runners and the batter did not assume the ball would be caught. Mark Texeira scored from first base on a dropped popup in very shallow right field.

I guarantee that if the situation was reversed, the Mets would not have scored two runs on that play. The runners would have given up, assuming the ball would be caught, and the runner on first would probably be standing on second base, not even realizing how big a mistake he just made. The batter probably would have been thrown out at first, and the game would be over with the same outcome: the Mets lose.

Obviously, that was the key play that determined the outcome. Catch the ball, Mets win; drop the ball, Yanks win. However, there was another play that the Yankees made that I doubt the Mets at full-strength (no injuries) would have. Popup over the mound. The pitcher fades back, and at the last moment, the shortstop barrels in, full-speed, to snatch the ball right above the grass. Derek Jeter made the play; Jose Reyes never would have.

Reyes is faster than Jeter, and a better athlete in every way except one: Jeter possesses great baseball instinct--the ability to create the perfect play at the perfect time--and Reyes does not. Reyes would have seen the pitcher, and veered off at the last moment to avoid getting hurt. We've seen it time after time.

For what it's worth, I think Alex Cora would have caught the ball. The Mets, when/if healthy, can have baseball instinct with mediocre talent, or no baseball instinct with huge talent, at the key defensive position on the diamond. Of course, they choose Reyes 99% of the time when both are available. What Reyes gives in talent, he takes away in laziness, fear of getting hurt, and a basic lack of baseball instinct.

My point is that whether the Mets had their regular starting lineup, or the lineup they put on the field yesterday, they still would have found a way to lose this game to the Yankees. And this game is the perfect demonstration of why the Mets have not made the playoffs since 2006, and why they fail in the clutch time after time.

© Judy Kamilhor 2009

I Was Wrong About Gary Sheffield

I need to admit I was very wrong about the Mets' decision to acquire Gary Sheffield. I was wrong in thinking he was done, and I was wrong about his effect on the clubhouse. He seems to have become an ideal veteran teammate, if he wasn't all along.

The reports of his outspokenness convinced me he was trouble, and the stories of his immaturity early in his career colored my opinion about him. I don't know how long he can continue his hot hitting, but I am not worried about him hurting the team's chemistry. Now that Daniel Murphy is playing first base, I'm not concerned with Sheffield taking away playing time from him. Now that Ryan Church is on the DL, Sheffield can't take away his at bats either.

Delgado's injury opened the door for Sheffield to become an every day player again, and so far so great. The trick from now on will be to give Sheffield enough rest to remain sharp. He is older, and does seem to need periodic rest, which Jerry Manuel seems to recognize.

I still say that the best thing the Mets can do is to trade Jose Reyes (plus Toronto's choice of Redding or Oliver Perez plus half his salary) for Roy Halliday (and Marco Scutaro). The one thing the Mets need more than anything is another ace, one that is a proven winner with a tough mentality and someone to lift his teammates to a higher level of production. I believe that Roy Halliday is that pitcher. Clearly, the Mets have shown that they can win without Jose Reyes. They are a more fundamentally sound team and a grittier team without him. Once Alex Cora returns, I would feel comfortable with Cora and Scutaro sharing the shortstop position.

They don't need to upgrade on Tim Redding with another fifth starter, as some baseball writers are suggesting. They need to upgrade on Oliver Perez as their number two starter, with a second ace. Since they can't photocopy Johan Santana, trading for Roy Halliday is the next best thing.

And I'm really pleased Omar Minaya traded Castro instead of demoting Omir Santos. That bodes well. Santos is clearly at his best right now, and sending him down would make absolutely no sense. Between him and Brian Schneider, the Mets have two starting catchers who work well with their pitchers. They still have Robinson Cancel for depth in Buffalo, so catching becomes a relative strong point for the first time in several years.


Caroms Off the Wall

I want to see more of Wilson Valdez, the new shortstop who sounds like an oil spill. He already showed some good instinct when he decoyed a baserunner into hesitating at second on a hit and run base hit, and not scoring.


© Judy Kamilhor 2009

Thank the baseball gods for Nolan Ryan

Here's the best news about baseball I've seen in a while. Nolan Ryan is transforming the Texas Rangers into the kind of team I want to see, with starting pitchers pitching deeper into games, and staying healthy. I hope it succeeds, so all the other teams will be forced to follow suit.

Go Rangers!

copyright Judy Kamilhor 2009

Gritty and Pretty, Part One

Just when I counted the Mets out for the season, they shocked me by winning two of three in Fenway Park. I expected them to win one game at the most, and only because Johan Santana was pitching the first game Friday night.

Saturday's game was one of those delicious baseball games that I thought Boston had about a 99% chance of winning, and yet, in the most stunning of 9th innings you will ever see, the Mets scored two runs on a disputed homerun by my new favorite, rookie catcher Omir Santos, off one of the most dominant closers in the world, the Irish Jig master himself, Jonathan Papelbon.

The bottom of the ninth was almost as amazing as the Mets' infield defense channeled their 1999 version and made one great play after another to preserve the victory for substitute closer J. J. Putz, who weirdly throws the ball five miles per hour faster when the scoreboard says it's the 9th inning rather than the 8th. (Can't the CitiField scoreboard operators just pretend it's the 9th inning whenever this guy pitches?)

I've been saying for years that the Mets have a lot of talent, but they lack the killer instinct necessary to be a championship team. Several years ago I came up with a list of psychological skills a team or an individual needs to be a winner in professional baseball (or other sports):

1. handling adversity
2. maintaining success/killer instinct
3. handling pressure (of the situation or the setting, such as New York)
4. seizing opportunity/handling expectations and hype

This year, I realize there is one crucial mental skill that is needed in order to win:

5. baseball instinct


The Mets have been handling adversity quite well the past few days, as almost half the team is injured to some degree or another, including most of their big stars, Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, Francisco Rodriguez, J. J. Putz, and several of their important role players, Alex Cora, Oliver Perez, and Brian Schneider.

Their ability to maintain success is generally weak, often following up a hot streak with a streak of dreadful play that causes the fans to question the team's toughness. They have been one of the streakiest teams the past few years, although it seems that this year every team is going through a series of alternating extreme hot and extreme cold streaks that stand out for being so unexpected. The Red Sox, Marlins, Orioles, and Padres are a few teams that have been particularly volatile.

Handling pressure is something the Mets struggle with. The pressure of living up to Johan Santana's greatness usually causes the team to make too many mental and physical mistakes whenever he pitches. His last start on Friday, it seemed like Santana simply decided that he was going to win no matter what his teammates did. The Mets' broadcasters made the same point during the series, and it rang true. Maybe the team can rise above that specific pressure from now on. Unfortunately, the general New York fan/media pressure seems to defeat the team as often as their opponents.

As for seizing opportunity, well, Omir Santos has totally demonstrated that ability. If the Mets send him down when Schneider comes back from the disabled list, then the Mets really don't deserve to win this year. Omir Santos has shown me that he is the best all-around catcher of the three. If I were the GM, I would look to trade either Castro or Schneider, and keep Santos as the starter. I know that won't happen because contracts and reputation are overvalued and performance is somehow undervalued in today's baseball economics.

Santos is one of the few gritty, intense players, and they need his energy. The Mets have too many pretty players (Beltran and Reyes above all), and not enough gritty players (Santana, Santos, Cora). They have a few players who have the potential to be gritty players but aren't quite there yet, for various reasons.

David Wright seems to be evolving into a gritty leader, but it is a long process. Ryan Church seemed like the kind of guy who would run through a wall to make a catch, but between all the concussions and his weird relationship with Jerry Manuel, his grittiness seems to be evaporating this year. I don't expect him to last the year with the Mets, as it seems like he has some kind of mental obstacle that he needs to overcome, and New York might not be the place to do that kind of deep growth work. He has struggled with overcoming adversity, maintaining success, and seizing opportunity in the past two years, and missing third base the other night is a clear example of missing baseball instinct or even self-sabotage.

Daniel Murphy is a gritty player with (usually) good baseball instinct that is struggling mightily this year with the heightened expectations of the team and the fans. I think he will be fine; I'm glad he's at first base, where he belongs. He reminds me of John Maine in that they both put extra pressure on themselves to be perfect, and it hurts them more than it helps. Perfectionism doesn't work in baseball, or in anything else for that matter. Murphy and Maine need to learn to relax and just play within their talents. They are both very talented young players, and should have successful careers with the right coaching and support from teammates and, dare I say, fans.

Delgado and Castillo have been disappointing more for a lack of leadership than for anything they have done on the field this year. I think they have both struggled in making the New York adjustment. Delgado doesn't seem to like the fans very much, nor the media, or maybe his injuries have kept him from taking an active leadership role. In any event, he is very smart and very talented, and the younger Mets need him to step up when he comes back, or else it's time to consider trading him at the trade deadline and giving Murphy first base for the rest of the year and beyond.

Castillo has played well, but I still get the feeling that he will disappear one way or another when the Mets most need him. With Alex Cora hurt, a Castillo injury would be disastrous unless Tatis can play second base well enough to handle the position for an extended period.

Ramon Martinez had an impressive rebound from his horrible start, at least defensively, which is what they need from him right now. I didn't realize that he was actually still rehabbing from a sports hernia when they abruptly called him up. He has handled adversity remarkably well. They still need Cora back as soon as possible, and off course Reyes needs to be healthy and happy, at least until they trade him for Roy Halladay and Marco Scutaro (in my perfect gritty world).


Caroms Off the Wall

David Ortiz is having the same first half this year as Carlos Delgado had last year. Let's hope his second half is as good as Delgado's was last year. I doubt it, though. There is no way he is only 33 years old, by the way. More like 37.


© Judy Kamilhor 2009