baseball gods productions

Off-Season Strategy for the Mets (Slightly Revised)

2011-12-03T10:33:00.001-05:00

I don't know about you, but I have already given up on the possibility of the Mets making the playoffs, expanded or not, in 2012. I'm okay with this, as it should prevent Sandy Alderson from having to sign overpriced players to make it seem like they are going for it this year.

The Mets' goals this off-season seem to include:

Getting one or two late-inning relievers for one or two years each, and spending no more than $10 million on them in 2012.
Resigning Jose Reyes if they can keep it to 5 years or fewer, and $85 million total or less.
Signing one or two cheap back-of-the-rotation starters for incentive-laden one year deals (see Chris Young and Chris Capuano in 2011).
Holding onto most if not all of their top prospects.

I'm okay with this approach. I would like for Alderson to say the team is rebuilding, rather than talking around it the way he usually does.

Here are some of my thoughts so far:

If the Mets don't resign Reyes--which is very likely at this point because I think the Marlins are very serious about him--they should sign Yoenis Cespedes (and maybe Jorge Soler, too, to give Cespedes someone to mentor in Spring Training) to give the fans someone to show up for. This guy looks like the most entertaining player outside Reyes (and Andrew McCutcheon).
For starters, Jason Marquis would be fine. Might bring some family and friends out to Citi Field. And why not Tim Wakefield and his super-slow knuckleball to make R. A. Dickey's hard knuckler look even faster. But the guy I'd really like to see is Dontrelle Willis. That guy was born to be a Met. If they can get him for an incentive-based one year deal, this would be one move I would love to see. He can even pinch-hit!
Consider bringing Jason Isringhausen back as one of the two late-inning guys, assuming he is willing to accept a one-year contract for up to $4 million.
Sign Takashi Saito or Jon Rauch as the other late-inning guy, for a similar contract as Isringhausen. There is no need to get a top-of-the-line closer for a rebuilding team.
Trade Mike Pelfrey and/or Angel Pagan for the best prospects possible, or a decent reliever or 4th outfielder-type. Non-tender both if they aren't traded.
Sign Endy Chavez for some feel-good memories and perhaps a well-timed bunt or two.

I would keep Daniel Murphy and Justin Turner, and now is not the time to trade David Wright. Wright (AKA Mr. Met) is more valuable to the Mets than to anyone else, and I would really like for him to still be here when the Mets get competitive again in 2014 or so. As one of several top offensive producers, he is fine. The problem is when he feels he needs to carry the team. He's not that good, period.

If the Mets follow my plan, I think they would win 75-81 games in 2012, depending a great deal on how Jason Bay and Johan Santana do. I know fans are really down on both of them, and can't wait until their contracts can be bought out, but really, why can't they have bounce-back years? I have a lot of respect for both of them, class-acts all the way (except maybe on the golf course).

At the trade deadline, assuming that they are out of the playoff race already, I would listen to offers for all of the over-30 guys (except Dickey), and consider any trade that brings back legitimate prospects.

As I said, I'm okay with a real rebuilding process that focuses on player development and prospect-collecting. I totally agree with Alderson when he says that the team needs to develop a top-notch work ethic from the Rookie Leagues to the Major League team. Let's use 2012 to create a winning attitude at all levels of the system, and get rid of the guys that don't fit that mold.

Let's Go Mets!

© Judy Kamilhor 2011

Wild Card Is Great Some Years, But Not This Year

2011-09-05T12:06:00.002-04:00

The two Wild Card races are practically over, and it's only Labor Day. Not a big deal in itself, but it takes away the drama of the American League East division title race between the Yankees and the Red Sox. Does it really matter who wins, since both are virtually guaranteed a playoff spot already?

I know it's never going to happen, but I think baseball would be better with four eight team divisions, and four playoff teams. This would require adding two expansion teams, and perhaps some radical realignment.

It would eliminate the Wild Card, which is fine with me, since it would return baseball to its special position as the only sport that doesn't reward teams for finishing second.

I know that it's much more likely that baseball will go in the opposite direction and add two more Wild Card teams. The proposed system would still be an improvement over the current system, if only because it will make it harder for a Wild Card team to win the World Series, which has happened way too often.

Going back to my radical proposal, there is something great about the eight team unit, harkening back to most of baseball history, when there were eight teams in each league, and the only interleague play happened in Spring Training and the World Series. Of course, it would be double that old model, but I like the symmetry and mathematical beauty of it all. And the DH would have to be eliminated, which is one of the best parts.

Here's my dream MLB configuration:

North

Minnesota Twins

Detroit Tigers

Toronto Blue Jays

Cleveland Indians

Chicago Cubs

Chicago White Sox

Milwaukee Brewers

Cincinnati Reds

South

Atlanta Braves

Florida Marlins

Tampa Bay Rays

Texas Rangers

Houston Astros

Kansas City Royals

St. Louis Cardinals

Senadores de San Juan

East

New York Mets

New York Yankees

Philadelphia Phillies

Washington Nationals

Baltimore Orioles

Brooklyn Cyclones

Boston Red Sox

West

Seattle Mariners

San Diego Padres

Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles de Anaheim

San Francisco Giants

Arizona Diamondbacks

Colorado Rockies

Oakland Athletics

It would be great to return to the 154 game schedule. One reason there are so many injuries is that the season is too long and there is too much travel. Now that amphetamine testing has slowly eliminated that aspect of the game, players need more down time to recover from fatigue.

One possibility would be to go way back and have teams only play against other teams in their league, so that each team would play 22 games each against the other seven teams in their region. Or there could be some kind of rotation of the regions, so that one year West and South were in the same league, and only play against the 15 other teams in those regions. The first round of playoffs could be a seven game series called the Regional Championships. And how about a best of nine games World Series?

Big changes are coming, so why not dream of what I'd really like to see?

Caroms Off the Wall

The other day, the Washington National were trailing by two runs and had runners on first and second with no outs against the Mets. The batter hit a hard grounder right to the short stop, clearly a double-play grounder. Right after the Mets turned the double-play, it occurred to me that the runner on second should have let the ball hit him. That would have resulted in one out (the runner on second), and still having runners on first and second, instead of having two outs and a runner on third. I wonder if a runner has ever had the presence of mind to do that, instead of instinctively dodging the ball and running to third?

© Judy Kamilhor 2011

All-Star Break Edition

2011-07-09T12:25:00.000-04:00

Two more games before the All-Star break and the Mets are three games over .500, guaranteeing that they will be over .500 at the break. I've never been this excited by a .500 team. They play the game the right way, at least better than in several years. They are even developing a killer instinct, which has been the missing link since the 1980s.

Yesterday's win was especially good to see, because in losing the game before, it looked like the news about Jose Reyes missing more time than initially expected may have had a negative effect on the team's confidence. Right now, attitude is the key ingredient, because it's not pure talent that is driving this team. Terry Collins has already shown me more than his two predecessors about motivating and getting the most out of his players. I admit that I did not expect him to be this good for this team.

I don't envy Sandy Alderson right now, because the decisions he has to make are challenging ones. What I would do in his position is:

Keep Jose Reyes and keep letting him know how important he is to the team.
Trade Francisco Rodriguez to anyone that makes an offer, to get rid of that horrible vesting option. I don't think Rodriguez is worth investing more money in, even if he would be willing to get an extension and void the vesting option.
Keep Carlos Beltran and offer him a one-year extension to reward him for his excellent season. His agent is Scott Boras, which means he will probably not accept, but it can't hurt to try.
Trade Mike Pelfrey for the best offer, either pieces to help now, or legitimate prospects. Pelfrey needs a less stressful environment to reach his full potential. He is one bad throw away from full-on Steve Blass disease.
Call up Chris Schwinden to start until Johan Santana is ready to step in. I fully expect that to be this year, probably in August.
If they trade Rodriguez and don't trade Pelfrey or another starter, I would even ask Santana if he is willing to be the closer for the rest of the year.

To the last point, Santana would be available sooner since he won't have to stretch out his arm. I can't see him being able to pitch more than 5 innings per game at least for the first few starts. He would be more valuable in the bullpen and he would probably be an awesome closer because of his ultra-competitive nature. It's also the least disruptive move for the rest of the pitching staff, keeping everyone in their current role.

For the next few weeks, three key guys are Lucas Duda, Nick Evans, and Dillon Gee. These guys need to step up and prove they are legitimate major leaguers. Gee has had a disturbing string of starts, and he needs to prove that he has gotten back to the way he was pitching earlier. I think he will, because I'm impressed with his fearless mindset and ability to make adjustments.

Duda and Evans will probably be sharing first base until Reyes, Davis, or Wright come back, and they need to hit well enough to keep the offense flowing. They don't need to replace Reyes's production, but they both have enough power to contribute some extra base hits and RBIs along the way.

I expect that the Mets will have a better second half than the first, and will end up with 85-89 wins and will fall a bit short of the NL Wild Card. All in all, that would be quite encouraging, and bodes well for 2012. Good luck, Sandy Alderson, it's your turn to give this team an even brighter future.

© Judy Kamilhor 2011

Meet the Mets

2011-05-08T12:11:00.000-04:00

The season is going about how I expected. The Mets are an almost .500 team with some top level talent and some promising young players. There are some useful veterans under affordable contracts. The new GM and front office appear to be committed to fiscal sanity, which is good for the long-term prospects of the team. The new manager seems to be changing the culture in a positive way.

Even when they are losing, they don't look horrible for the most part. The losses are generally by one run, and according to many baseball analysts, that is partially due to luck and tends to even out over the long run.

There are two major issues that are casting a cloud on the team. One is the precarious owner finance issue that will be addressed if not resolved with the selling of a minority stake in the team. The leading candidate sounds like a potential Bernie Madoff clone, which is very disturbing. My preference (as I imagine it is for most Met fans) is for the Mets to sell the team completely, to someone with sound finances and a hands-off approach to the business of baseball. The current situation is a distraction at best, and a potential disaster at worst.

The Wilpons probably won't sell unless the lawsuit against them is successful, so it's wishful thinking to expect them to sell sooner rather than later. The team can survive this situation, though, so all is not lost.

The other major issue is the recent injuries to three of the team's best young pitchers. Bobby Parnell, Jenrry Mejia, and Pedro Beato are significant pieces now and in the near future. The Mets need at least two of them to come back better than ever, or else the team will be set back significantly.

It is alarming that three of the team's hardest throwing pitchers are all injured. I would really like to see the team find a way to cut down on pitchers' injuries, using biomechanics and training methods. This is obviously a problem throughout baseball, and it will require a lot of research and experimentation to solve. The first team to find a way to significantly minimize pitching injuries will be very successful on the field.

A third issue that has already gotten a lot of attention is the debate over selling off valuable pieces before the trade deadline, both to reduce the budget and to deepen the stock of prospects and younger, cheaper players.

I think most fans are resigned to trading Carlos Beltran and Francisco Rodriguez, and just want the team to get some useful players in return. My only preference with these two players is that the Mets be willing to eat enough (meaning most) of their salaries to get a significant return, rather than a salary dump in which they get little to nothing of value.

It would make sense to trade guys like Chris Young (assuming he is healthy enough to pitch again), Chris Capuano, Scott Hairston, Willie Harris, and even Jason Isringhausen, if there are any takers, of course. I would be open to releasing Willie Harris as soon as Angel Pagan comes back, as he is not playing well, and has made some questionable comments about the team's clubhouse, which makes it sounds like he doesn't really want to be here.

That leaves the more valuable players: Jose Reyes, David Wright, R. A. Dickey, Angel Pagan, and Mike Pelfrey. This is the group that will be interesting to watch. Of this group, I don't think it's a good time to trade any of them. The ones that make sense to trade if/when they start playing better are Angel Pagan and Mike Pelfrey.

As for Jose Reyes, I would try to sign him to a three year extension, in the range of $45-51 million dollars. I would not sign him for more than three years because I really don't think he will age well, being a strictly physical player with somewhat questionable baseball instincts. The idea of trading him now is scary, given how well he is playing, and how popular he is in New York. If other players are traded, and with all the money coming off the books next year, this contract is affordable and fair, and may be enough to entice Reyes to stay where he says he wants to be.

If he won't sign a three year contract, they would have to trade him for the best package available by the deadline. If he keeps playing the way he is playing now, some team will be willing to offer top prospects for him, especially if the Mets offer a negotiating window. There is one other option which is intriguing, and many people have already proposed this: trade him now and resign him during the off season. That would be great, as long as they don't give him more than three years.

I'm looking forward to the rest of the season, to see how the front office handles all of these issues. I have more confidence in how the team is being run than I have had in a long time.

© Judy Kamilhor 2011

1986 Calls of the Mookie Wilson Ground Ball

2011-02-04T08:43:00.000-05:00

How many people remember Vin Scully's famous call of the ground ball that "gets through Buckner" to allow the Mets to win game 6 of the 1986 World Series, and to then win it all in game 7? How many people also remember Bob Murphy's call of the same play?

This link on Metsblog.com includes comments that show that some people have forgotten that there were several calls of this play, one on the national broadcast (Vin Scully), and one on the Mets' local radio broadcast (Murphy), and I'm sure one on the local Boston radio broadcast as well. I'd like to hear that one, actually.

The "gets through Buckner" vs. "gets by Buckner" is what has caused the confusion. The calls are so similar, but each one is from the unique perspective of one of the greatest broadcasters in baseball history.

By the way, the Metsblog link is from the Eephus League website, which is truly unique and beautifully designed. Check it out!

© Judy Kamilhor 2011

"Closer" Than You Think, Decisions About K-Rod

2010-12-30T15:36:00.000-05:00

There is a mini-debate going on about what the Mets should do about Francisco Rodriguez's insane vesting option for 2012. One side says the Mets should sign another closer to alternate with Rodriguez, to keep him from finishing the necessary 55 games required to trigger the $17.5 million salary for 2012 (there's a $3.5 million buyout if he doesn't reach the vesting requirement).

The other side says it doesn't make sense to pay another closer to prevent Rodriguez from reaching the vesting option. There are other options, and I would like to see the Mets choose any one of the following:

1. Trade him now or at the trade deadline, with the receiving team taking responsibility for any 2012 payments ($17.5 million or $3.5 million), and the Mets paying most or all of his 2011 salary. The Mets don't even need to get a real player or prospect in return, but it would be nice to get something for their $11.5 million for 2011.

2. Keep him and use him as co-closer with Bobby Parnell being the other co-closer, and justify it with the very real possibility that Parnell will be the closer in 2012 if not before (if Rodriguez is traded, injured, and/or incarcerated.)

Of course, both options could be chosen together by using co-closers until the trade deadline, and then trading Rodriguez.

In any event, I always like to point out the other options that the media often misses.

© Judy Kamilhor 2010

Outlook for 2011: New York Mets

2010-12-29T16:16:00.000-05:00

So far, the Mets have added Boof Bonser, DJ Carrasco, Ronny Paulino, and Cindy-Lou Who (I mean Chin-Lung Hu), and have lost at least half a season of Johan Santana, and full seasons of Hisanori Takahashi and Pedro Feliciano. They have also let go of John Maine, Sean Green, and my favorite, Chris Carter. They have neither added nor subtracted Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo, or Doug Sisk (I'm dating myself).

There are two distinct camps of Met fans forming this off-season: the Same-Old-Mets camp and the new Sandy and His Pals Are Living Baseball Gods camp. I am much closer to the latter than the former, but I am waiting and watching very closely to see how things are different before I anoint Sandy Alderson's feet with oil.

Alderson and his pals seem to be exploiting the market inefficiency of overpriced, overlong contracts to overaged players, by exercising extreme fiscal restraint this off season. I am assuming, based on interviews with Alderson, that this is the plan for 2011 only, and that more money will be spent next off season, as long as the team looks fairly competitive. Money will be spent intelligently, though, and that's the real difference from past regimes.

In the future, financial flexibility will be the second most important characteristic of winning baseball teams. The first, of course, is a strong player development system, from drafting, scouting, training, and everything in between. Smart choices and smart spending will eventually lead to winning, as long as the players are handled properly from a medical (and mental) standpoint.

I believe the Mets are finally heading in the right direction, and that it will take a while before it becomes visible in the standings. This is much smarter than making a big, expensive splash with a deeply flawed organization, as they have done so often.

2011 looks like a transition year, and I'm okay with that. What I will be looking at closely is how effective Terry Collins will be in instilling a new attitude and a new way of playing the game, that is actually more like the old way of playing the game, before home runs and 7th inning specialists took over.

One request I have of the new brain trust is to focus the player acquisition process on increasing the baseball instinct of the organization as a whole. That should be counted as the 6th tool. It's hard to measure, which is why is doesn't get nearly the attention it deserves in the media.

I had the good fortune to watch MLB Network's countdown of the best defensive plays of 2010 the other day, and there was one play that stuck in my mind even though it was only in the 70s in their list. Rickie Weeks of the Milwaukee Brewers races into the hole between first and second, and lunges for a hard ground ball. Seeing that the pitcher was going to have to cover, he bounces the ball not once but twice, to slow it down enough for the pitcher to get to it just as he reached the first base bag. I've never seen an infielder do this in my very long career playing and watching softball and baseball.

There were the usual array of players diving, jumping, and tossing the ball with their gloves, which I love, of course. I've also seen plays just like them thousands of times, and have actually done them myself a long time ago. What Rickie Weeks did was a perfect example of baseball instinct, because there is no way he ever practiced that or even saw someone else do it. His instinct kicked in at just the right moment, and to me this play should have been much higher in the list.

I define baseball instinct as creating a spontaneous winning play using a deep understanding of the game in addition to, or sometimes instead of, great talent. Derek Jeter's famous flip to get that idiot, Jeremy Giambi, at home in the playoffs is another classic example. Who else would have been there at that moment? No one. Can you imagine Jose Reyes doing something like that? I sure can't.

In Memory Of . . .

The ranks of the baseball gods has increased to include Bob Feller and Robin Roberts, along with a slew of all-time greats announcers such as Ron Santo (all-time great player, too, of course), Ernie Harwell, Dave Niehaus, and the Yankee PA announcer extraordinaire, Bob Sheppard. George Steinbrenner joins them to offer some vinegar and perhaps, an increased budget.

The baseball gods' team grows ever stronger, and those of us left here have to rely on our memories more and more. RIP, great baseball men.

Happy New Year, everyone! I hope 2011 brings you a winning attitude and successful seasons for your favorite teams.

© Judy Kamilhor 2010

Celebrate Well

2010-12-25T14:16:00.002-05:00

be the present
be the light
be forgiving
be child-like

be the answer
worth the wait
be the savior
be awake

let compassion,
generosity
be your passion
for the city

become Santa
share the wealth
let your fanta-
sy be health

for all, good will
to people
in the mosque, temple,
or the steeple

peace on earth
old guy in red
a miracle birth
the story said

three wise men
brought gifts so rare
remember the spirit
remember the care

if you celebrate Christmas,
please celebrate well
no more hate
we'll all feel swell

© Judy Kamilhor 2010

Winter Meetings

2010-12-06T16:14:00.001-05:00

I wish I were at the Winter Meetings in Orlando, Florida, right now. Mostly because it's warmer there, but also because I want to know everything that is going on. This is the time of the baseball year that is the most interesting to me, because I really enjoy the team-building planning process.

Of course, watching the games is great, but as I've gotten older, I have found that I think about being a GM rather than a manager or player. Not much has changed in the personnel department for the Mets, but everything has changed in the front office, and for that I am truly grateful and excited. There are no guarantees in sports, but I trust Sandy Alderson and his staff a lot more than any regime since the Frank Cashen era of the mid-1980s.

2011 will be a year of rebuilding to some degree, but mostly a year of taking stock of the organization from top to bottom. This is something that I have been requesting for a long time, and I finally trust the front office to do it properly.

At first, I was not happy with the selection of Terry Collins, but after seeing him and listening to him, I am more than willing to give him a chance. His job, as I see it, is to change the culture. I'm really glad Wally Backman and Chip Hale are still with the organization, because I expect one of them to be the manager with a few years. Terry Collins taking over now will make the manager's job of the New York Mets a lot easier in the future.

This really is no job for a beginner. Terry Collins sounds like just the drill sergeant the clubhouse needs to get kicked into a higher gear. My hope is that the Mets use this year to rid the clubhouse of all the guys that are not championship caliber, meaning having a winners' mentality.

The Mets of October 2011 will be very different than the current Mets, and I am looking forward to watching the evolution of the team over the next 10 months and beyond. Being a Met fan means having patience and an open mind. Fortunately, my job has provided me with opportunities to learn both on a daily basis.

© Judy Kamilhor 2010

Raise Your Hand If You Predicted Texas and San Francisco Would Meet In the World Series This Year

2010-10-24T21:45:00.000-04:00

If you predicted this matchup before the season, please contact Fred Wilpon immediately and demand to be made the new GM of the New York Mets. If you even predicted this matchup before the playoffs started you're a freaking genius.

All I can say is YAY! The Yankees and Phillies won't win this year, and the team that wins will win for the first time in over 50 years. Good for the Rangers and Giants, and good for baseball, to spread the joy around, at these for one year.

I've been happily wearing my new Texas Rangers hat around New York the past few days and have taken some flack for it, but so what. I've been rooting for them for a few years, ever since Nolan Ryan starting changing the team's pitching philosophy from the minor leagues on up. It's starting to pay off big time. If they resign Cliff Lee, they could become the next dynasty, although teams rarely stay on top for very long anymore.

The Yankees did exactly what I expected this year: they were good, but not as good as in 2009, because last year everything went their way and this year it didn't. Simple as that. It's very hard to have everything break just right year after year. I predicted the Red Sox to win the division because in 2009, most of their risks didn't pan out, and that usually reverses itself when the risks were ones worth taking. This year, they had even more bad breaks, such as losing Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis for much of the season, along with Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Cameron, and Josh Beckett. You know it's bad when J. D. Drew is your healthiest outfielder.

Now it's down to the two survivors, and I am hoping that Texas wins. Texas reminds me of the 2004 Red Sox in the way they love to play baseball and really seem to enjoy each other. The chemistry is great, and I attribute much of it to Ron Washington. The manager is important, contrary to what some people think (yes, Billy Beane, I'm talking to you.)

The manager sets the tone, and the tone of the Texas Rangers is spot on. Bruce Bochy has done a great job, too. He has now had very successful seasons with two teams that were not predicted to do too well. The Xs and Os might not matter as much as they do in football, but attitude and preparation are very important in baseball, and the Giants and Rangers demonstrated what prepared teams with positive attitudes can accomplish.

Good for them, good for baseball, bad for the big bad Yanks and Phils.

© Judy Kamilhor 2010

Go Texas!

2010-10-15T13:55:00.000-04:00

My Texas Rangers' cap is on the way. Nothing would make me happier than to see Cliff Lee and the rest of the Rangers celebrating a World Series Championship, preferably in Citizen's Bank Park or the New New Yankee Stadium.

This is the franchise I want the Mets to emulate when they start the massive rebuilding process they need to become successful again. I love Nolan Ryan's attitude about pitching, and hope that it rubs off on the rest of MLB as soon as possible.

I really hope that Cliff Lee resigns with Texas and that they become as much of a dynasty as you can these days.

© Judy Kamilhor 2010

Waiting

2010-10-15T13:48:00.000-04:00

There is an unfamiliar sense of optimism around the Mets these days, if only because there is nothing to criticize as all the scapegoats have been removed, and no one has taken their place. Some interesting names are being tossed about as potential GMs, and from there, the managerial search will begin in earnest.

I don't know nearly enough about these people to predict how they would do as the GM, but it's nice to think about someone like Rick Hahn or Sandy Alderson taking the reins and setting a new course for the team.

My preference, as I've said several times, is to hire a team president who is an experienced, visionary leader with a proven track-record in building winning organizations. Sandy Alderson, Terry Ryan, John Hart come to mind, and even Bobby Valentine, one of the brightest baseball minds around.

Once the president is in place (and Jeff Wilpon and Saul Katz are removed), then I would have that person choose a bright, young GM to put the vision into action. People like Rick Hahn, Jon Daniels, Josh Byrnes, and Jerry DiPoto come to mind for this piece of the puzzle. I want someone young enough to be able to follow through on the necessary rebuilding process, under the guidance, as needed, by the President.

Then, the President and GM will select some possible managers and interview them until a new manager is selected. My personal choice would be Wally Backman. I think he would be the perfect field leader to instill a more fiery work ethic and a refusal to accept losing.

I would also hope that the President and GM start building a front office with a good balance of traditional scouting expertise and advanced statistical acumen. Amateur scouting needs to be the primary focus of the organization. Building a deep, talented, winning farm system is the only way to win these days, and the right leaders need to be in place to make this happen.

The major flaw of the Omar Minaya regime is Minaya's insistence that New York won't tolerate a rebuilding process. That's bull. Fans want a winning organization for years to come, and are willing to do it the right way. I believe that the game has changed enough in the "post-steroid" era that the rebuilding process can be much faster than it used to be. The best players now are mostly younger players who had to rise through a tougher-testing minor league system. The added bonus is that they are also healthier and cheaper.

My guess is that the Mets can become a consistent winner within 2-3 years if they follow my plan, and they probably won't have another year as bad as 2009 in the meantime.

Let's Go Mets!

© Judy Kamilhor 2010

Lookalikes: Ike Davis and Jay Gibbons

2010-10-03T11:10:00.001-04:00

All My Predicted Playoff Teams Still Alive, Just Barely In Some Cases

2010-09-28T14:01:00.000-04:00

It's the last Tuesday of the season and all my eight predicted playoff teams are mathematically alive.

I was right about Minnesota and Texas. I was right that Philadelphia would make it but wrong about how. The Yankees might end up as the wild card as I predicted. The Braves still have a decent chance to make the playoffs, just not as division winners as I expected. However, my other brilliant picks have not done quite as well.

Boston is hanging by a red thread, instead of winning the division. The St. Louis Cardinals are on that same red thread, behind the team that I have predicted to win in each of the last few seasons, the Cincinnati Reds. Why couldn't I pick them one more time?

The biggest disappointment has been the Colorado Rockies, but only because I expected them to have a month-long hot streak in September, instead of a two week long hot streak leading into an ice cold streak in late September that has just about knocked them out of both races.

All in all, though, I have to say that I didn't make any horrible picks this year. Like say, that the Mets would have made the playoffs! On the other hand, I'd rather be happy than right, right? Maybe.

© Judy Kamilhor 2010

Is It Spring Training Yet?

2010-08-29T19:17:00.003-04:00

Here's a link from Metsblog.com, that shows how the Mets' starters have done over the past 22 games. They have a 2.58 ERA, averaging 7 innings per game, and have a won-lost record of 8-9. Unbelievable!

Too bad it's not 1919. Well actually, in any era, when your team scores fewer runs than they allow, it isn't going to be pretty. But really, doesn't this team belong in the Dead Ball Era?

Why Do Home Teams Win So Often?

2010-08-12T20:10:00.000-04:00

Tom Verducci asked why the home team winning percentage is so much higher this year than in the past, and I sent him my answer to the Sports Illustrated website. My theory is that amphetamine testing is the reason.

Think about it: road players are taking long flights, sleeping in hotel rooms, and otherwise less comfortable and refreshed than home players. In the old days, players dealt with issues like fatigue by taking amphetamines like candy. Now, they are getting tested, and after a second positive test, they get suspended.

I've thought that it would take a while for the effects of this to be noticed, because it would take awhile for all amphetamine users to test positive the first time (results of which are not announced). There would be no reason to stop until after the first positive test, so it all makes sense that there was a bit of a delayed reaction.

I would say that amphetamine testing has also had an effect on the rise of pitchers and the fall of hitters these days. Pitchers are pumped up when they are pitching, and probably rely less on amphetamines to keep their focus. Most pitchers are pitching no more than six innings at a time, so fatigue is less of a factor.

Hitters, on the other hand, need to focus on seeing pitches every 30 minutes or so, which is much harder to do than focusing on pitching one pitch after another; in other words, pitchers get into a rhythm, while hitters have to kick it into gear a few times a day, with no chance to get into a real groove.

Maybe this sounds totally crazy, but I really believe that amphetamines have had a tremendous impact on baseball, and people have not started to examine it systematically.

© Judy Kamilhor 2010

July 4th Weekend Part 2

2010-07-04T18:44:00.000-04:00

The Mets are still ten games over .500 after a 3-4 road trip that should have been a 4-3 road trip if Francisco Rodriguez had been able to hold a two-run lead on a Saturday afternoon when 35 year old knuckleballer, R. A. Dickey, out-pitched the future Hall-of-Famer, Stephen Strasburg.

They have six games left before the All-Star break, with one off-day conveniently scheduled right in the middle of the week. If Jerry Manuel does not take advantage of the off-day to move Mike Pelfrey and Johan Santana up a day, he should be fired on the spot.

vs. Cincinnati, July 5-7
Pelfrey
Santana
Niese

vs. Atlanta, July 9-11
Dickey
Pelfrey
Santana

This accomplishes several things, including putting Takahashi back in the bullpen for the Atlanta series where he belongs for the rest of the year. It also gives Pelfrey the first start of the second half on normal rest, and keeps Santana from having eight days rest before his first start after the break. Most importantly, it gives the Mets their best chance to win at least four of the next six games going into the break, and a great chance to cut into Atlanta's lead in the NL East.

And, if the Mets manage to acquire Cliff Lee in the next few days, they could throw this trio against the Braves:

Lee
Pelfrey
Santana

!

I am beginning to think I know the Mets better than Jerry Manuel. I said out loud to myself before Takahashi pitched to Ryan Zimmerman in the sixth inning today to remove Takahashi. Manuel left him in to give up a three-run home run to Zimmerman. Takahashi is fairly predictable at this point, and it was clear that he had reached his expiration date after putting the first two guys on base in the sixth inning. Fortunately, they were able to hold on this time.

I also had a strong feeling that Dickey would outpitch the phenom, and I thought the Mets would win the game before it started. However, when I checked in on the CBS Sports Gametracker and saw that Rodriquez was pitching to Adam Dunn with the bases loaded, one out, and a 5-3 lead, I knew that the Mets would lose. I checked back when my subway rose above ground for a few moments, and sure enough, they lost 6-5. If I know these things, why doesn't the manager?

Beltran On His Way Back Soon

Everyone is obsessing about what the Mets should do when Beltran comes back. My solution is to make Beltran the 4th outfielder, starting him no more than four times a week until he proves he is physically capable of playing more than that. I would rest Bay once a week, Pagan twice a week, and Francoeur once or twice a week, allowing Beltran to start four games and Chris "The Animal" Carter to start once.

Of course, injuries and slumps will force some adjustments, but I don't think Beltran should play every day, because he will just get hurt again. He has arthritis, which doesn't actually go away. Playing him four days a week should keep him fresh and productive the rest of the way, which is all the Mets need from him.

Catching a Break

Here's how the catching should work for the next few week at least. Barajas obviously needs more rest than he has been getting. He is a hitter that needs to be fresh in order to produce, and with the extra catcher on the roster, there is no reason to burn out Barajas.

Josh Thole has shown that he can hit well enough to stay in the major leagues, and he has also shown, surprisingly to me, anyway, that he is the best at catching R. A. Dickey. From here on out, Thole should absolutely be Dickey's personal catcher, and should maybe start one other game a week, and spend the rest of the time as an ace pinch hitter.

So, I would start Barajas four times a week at the most, with Blanco and Thole splitting the other games, depending on the Mets' starter and the other team's starter. I like Blanco catching Pelfrey and Santana whenever possible, and Barajas catching Niese all the time.

Caroms Off the Wall

I will be very satisfied if the Mets can win 4+ games going into the All-Star break, and stay ahead of the Phillies. And I'd be more satisfied if the Mets can pull off a couple of brilliant trades in the next few weeks to bolster the rotation and bullpen. As it is, they are adding an All-Star in Carlos Beltran without having to surrender any prospects or money. That's better than most teams will be able to do.

© Judy Kamilhor 2010

July 4th Weekend

2010-07-03T11:13:00.001-04:00

To get Cliff Lee or not to get Cliff Lee, that is one question. If/when Lee becomes available, the Mets should be right there with a good offer, including one blue chip prospect (Jenrry Mejia or Wilmer Flores), a couple of other lesser prospects, and the willingness to pay Lee's remaining salary. This is one of those times when the team is actually one or two players away from a possible playoff run, and if they can add those pieces without destroying their prospect pool, they should do it.

In addition to Lee, the Mets need a guy like Joaquin Soria to be the "8th inning guy" that Jerry Manuel craves. I love the idea of having two closers, so that you can use one in crucial situations and the other in save situations. I'm not a big fan of the current bullpen usage and terminology; I prefer having guys that pitch when I want them to pitch, and do well in all situations. There is way too much specialization going on, without much to show for it.

The Mets have managed to get rid of some of the non-productive players that they started the season with, but there are still three I'd like to see leave. Luis Castillo has limped his way to oblivion, and the Mets need to release him as soon as he is ready to come off the DL. Oliver Perez and John Maine should be right behind him, although there is a chance that some team would be willing to trade for Maine.

I said it in Spring Training, and I'll say it again, I wonder how long it will be before Ruben Tejada is the team's best choice at second base. I'd say that time is now. Having Tejada at 2B makes the team younger, faster, better defensively, and it forces Jose Reyes to become more of a mentor than a student. Not that Tejada needs to learn that much, because his baseball instinct is actually better than Reyes'.

Chris "The Animal" Carter has been a breath of fresh air, and I like his bat, but I have come to the conclusion that he has the yips. The last two throws have demonstrated the problem clearly. The first was a lollypop toss that was frightening to watch. The next one--clearly after being told to fire the ball in--was at a 45 degree angle to where he was aiming, which is actually not that easy to do. I wonder if that is why Boston traded him in the first place? As much as I love The Animal, I think his future lies in the AL as a designated hitter. For now, though, I like his bat off the bench.

It's time for my favorite Japanese pitcher, Hisanori Takahashi, to be returned to the bullpen. Starting was a good opportunity for him to show what he could do, and the answer is that he can pitch really well for about three innings before the trouble starts. This is a great asset in a reliever, and a terrible one in a starter. Once the Mets get Lee (I'm trying to be optimistic here), Takahashi can go back to the pen, and the Mets have improved both areas of the pitching staff. Once they add Soria or someone like him, the bullpen becomes a possible strength, and gives them a legitimate shot at a playoff spot and maybe a chance to advance a round or two, or even more.

It's still hard to imagine Jerry Manuel leading a team to a World Series Championship, but this team has a feel about it that could lead to 1969-like magic, with young guys like Ike Davis, Mike Pelfrey, and Jon Niese leading the way. Keeping Tejada and ditching Castillo will help, and replacing Maine and Perez with Lee and Soria, will improve the odds dramatically.

Caroms Off the Wall

Is it bragging to point out that I picked Boston, Minnesota, Texas, Atlanta, St. Louis, and Colorado (just wait) to win their divisions? I had the Yankees and Philadelphia as wild card picks. All in all, my picks are doing pretty well so far, although a few years ago, my teams proceeded to collapse en masse at the end, causing me to swear off making future predictions.

© Judy Kamilhor 2010

Memorial Day Assessment

2010-05-31T14:07:00.001-04:00

Every year around Memorial Day, I take stock of the Mets. This year's version is the streakiest, hardest to predict group I can remember. I haven't done the research, but I'm guessing that not too many teams win 10 of 11 games in the same season that they go 6-16 on the road.

Beating the previous year's two World Series teams five times in a row should indicate a very good team, right? So how did they lose 8 of 9 and 7 of 8 in two separate horrible streaks? Obviously, the home vs. road record is seriously strange (19-9 at home, 7-16 on the road), and indicates that there is potential for a better record if they can correct whatever is wrong on the road.

Some improvements I would like to see:

Release Oliver Perez, or find a clever way to suspend him or put him on the mentally disabled list.

Replace Gary Matthews, Jr. with Jesus Feliciano as the backup CF, or sign Willy Taveras or Jonathan Van Every to be the backup CF until/if/when Beltran returns.

Bring up Dillon Gee to take the 5th starter spot, and let Jonathon Niese earn his way back into the rotation by dominating in Buffalo.

Put Fernando Nieve back in the bullpen, and use him no more than once every three days until he regains some effectiveness. If he doesn't, please release him, too. His getting off to a great start actually hurt the team, since it led to his overuse and now-total ineffectiveness. Bring up Bobby Parnell if Nieve pitches his way off the team.

Start Chris Carter once in a while, at least to keep him from going postal, and to give the team a spark.

Try Jeff Francoeur in CF a few times in laughers to see if he is capable of providing assistance for Angel Pagan until/if/when Beltran returns. The only reason Gary Matthews, Jr. is on the team (I hope) is that he is the only player on the current roster who can play CF besides Pagan. Please change that as soon as possible, one way or another.

Stop wasting relief pitchers by getting them warmed up and sitting them down over and over. Stop wasting relief pitchers by using them to pitch to one batter. Pedro Feliciano is one of the team's best pitchers; there is no reason to take him out after one batter. Please stop doing this!

Consider platooning Alex Cora and Luis Castillo, at least until Castillo's foot gets better. The man can barely walk, for the baseball gods' sake.

Consider replacing Fernando Tatis with Mike Hessman, who is absolutely tearing up Triple A. Like Chris Carter, Hessman will never be better than he is right now, so why not see what he can do in the major leagues as a pinch hitter.

Get Wally Backman warming up in the managerial bullpen. Let's see how he does in Brooklyn this year, and then next year, he's the guy I want in the dugout. Bobby Valentine should be offered the GM job in the offseason, or even the team president position. Jeff Wilpon must be pushed aside somehow.

All in all, the Mets are better than I expected, but still maddeningly inconsistent. The best news is that the culture of handing jobs to higher paid guys regardless of performance seems to be ending. Having his job on the line is helping Jerry Manuel make better decisions, especially in the starting rotation. You have to pay the guys either way, so why not play the best players and see what happens.

Caroms Off the Wall:

Maybe the Mets need to hire a road manager, pitching coach, and hitting coach. Or perhaps a chaperone. What are these guys doing before and after games?

© Judy Kamilhor 2010

Amazin'

2010-05-24T19:11:00.002-04:00

They are only three games into the dangerous six game stretch against the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies, but the Mets have already won as many games as I expected, after finally taking a rubber game in their series win against their New York rivals.

Somehow the team's weakness became their strength, at least for a few games, and the starting pitching led the way. The offense was surprisingly good, getting two out hits and power where they had been lacking earlier in the season.

The Mets are basically a .500 team that is not as far from being a playoff contender as I thought. They have a bad record in one-run games, which can be a sign of bad luck or, in my opinion, a sign of the lack of clutch hitting, pitching, fielding, and base running, otherwise known as good baseball instinct. Unfortunately, it's not something that can be taught, but it can be scouted and acquired. In other words, to those people who question why Alex Cora is still on the team, it's because he (usually) demonstrates excellent baseball instinct, being in the right place at the right time, and making the winning play, his terrible throw to Jose Reyes against the Yankees notwithstanding.

The things that are working right now: they have at least two reliable starters in Johan Santana and Mike Pelfrey, and maybe another one in my favorite, Hisanori Takahashi. Once Jon Niese returns, the Mets rotation could be good enough to lift the team in the standings a bit. I believe that the only way to move forward is to abandon the John Maine/Oliver Perez restoration project and trade or release both of them. It's time to develop one or two more starters from the minors, such as Dillon Gee and (please) Jenrry Mejia.

The offense seems to be rounding into shape a bit, and will be helped by the return of Daniel Murphy as a utility player and possible second baseman in a few weeks. Luis Castillo's foot is hurting at a bad time, as he is very replaceable. Alex Cora offers a good alternative to Castillo, and I think the Mets have a slightly better chance to win with Cora at second than Castillo, because of his better range and better instinct.

The weak areas right now: the bullpen has been weakened by Takahashi moving to the rotation, and it is time to send Jenrry Mejia to the minors to resume his development as a starter. Some sports writers have used the term "convert" to a starter for Mejia, which is silly since he's been a starter his whole career except for a few weeks this year. Stretching him out won't take that long, but improving his secondary pitches might take a bit longer.

The good news is that Ryota Igarishi is back (shaky in his first game), and should resume his excellent pitching soon. And although Raul Valdes would probably be an effective starter, the team is better off keeping him as the long man/utility man in the bullpen, and calling up Gee to take the fifth spot in the rotation.

Changes I would like to see: Chris Carter needs to start in RF at least 2-3 times a week, at least until Jeff Francoeur gets his groove back. I would even consider something of a platoon with them, using Francoeur as a defensive replacement when the team is winning late, and starting him against lefties.

There are at least two center fielders available in Willy Taveras and Jonathan Van Every. I would sign one or both to minor league contracts and use one to replace Gary Matthews, Jr. as soon as possible. Taveras at least offers one better than average skill in his excellent speed. Matthews is not good at anything, unfortunately, and the team would be better off without him.

Caroms Off the Wall

Very sorry to hear about the passing of Jose Lima. He was a colorful character and good for the game. RIP, Jose.

© Judy Kamilhor 2010

The Animal Arrives, Finally

2010-05-11T10:55:00.001-04:00

On March 15, I wrote: "The last expected position battle is for the last bench spot. The candidates are Mike Jacobs, Frank Catalanotto, and Chris Carter. While most baseball writers and sportscasters say it should be Jacobs or Catalanotto, I say it should be Chris Carter, at least to start the season. My main reason is that he is the only one that is in his prime, and it's time to see what he's got now, because he's probably never going to be any better. Jacobs seems to be starting the downhill portion of his career, and Catalanotto is just trying to hang on. Ideally, the two older guys are willing to go to Buffalo for a while, to see how things shake out, and Carter makes the team as the left handed bat off the bench and backup at 1B and the corner OF spots."

Well, better late than never, I say. Chris "The Animal" Carter has finally been called up, to replace the DFA'd Frank Catalanotto. Good move. Now that Ike Davis is the regular first baseman, Carter becomes the backup to Francoeur, Bay, and Davis, and the number one left-handed pinch hitter. I think he'll do well, but it's possible that he is one of those guys that mashes minor league pitching, but as soon as the lights of The Show are turned on, he shrinks from the glare. Only time will tell, but it's a risk that had to be taken. Go Animal Go! GRRRRRrrrrrrrrrr!

I hope Catalanotto ends up at Buffalo, for insurance, like Jacobs. So this move solves one problem, and leaves one more glaring need among the position players. It's time for the Mets to find another backup center fielder to replace Gary Matthews, Jr. I would not be surprised if Carlos Beltran has played his last game as a Met, or at least, that he will miss the entire 2010 season. I don't really think Angel Pagan is up to the task of being the full-time CF all year, and I believe the Mets need to start planning for the future even if Beltran returns this year.

My long-term choice in CF is Kirk Nieuwenhuis, currently playing well at Double A Binghamton. In addition, I think the Mets should trade for someone like David Dejesus to help Pagan, and fill in if Pagan gets hurt. Maybe Pagan has finally gotten over his fear of success issue and has decided he belongs in the major leagues as an everyday player. I hope so for the Mets' sake and his.

As for the pitching, I'm really happy to see that John Maine is doing much better. I was ready to toss him off the plank a few weeks ago, but maybe he has resurrected his career. That leaves Oliver Perez as the big question mark in the rotation, although he's not really a question mark as much as a negative exclamation point (-!-). It's cute as an emoticon, but a big negative on the field. Time for Ollie to go away, to wherever failed phenoms go. Maybe he will turn out to write really well, like my old friend Pat Jordan.

The plan right now seems to be to wait until Ryoto Igarashi returns from the DL, and then consider replacing Ollie with my favorite pitcher, Hisanori Takahashi. The only question then is what to do with Oliver Perez. I think they should release him if they can't send him to the minors to relearn how to pitch. I doubt anyone will want to trade for him, unless the Mets pay all of his salary minus the league minimum. Maybe they can trade him to the Phillies!

All I can say is thank the baseball gods for Japanese pitchers. The Mets seem to have finally had some successs with their Japanese players after many disasters and disappointments.

Caroms Off The Wall

Jenrry Mejia needs to pitch more often in the majors or go back to the minors and get back to starting. I truly prefer that he goes down and develops some more as a starter, so that the Mets can call him up in a couple of months and put him in the rotation for the stretch run.

Once Igarashi returns, I'd consider calling up another reliever and putting Mejia where he should have been all year, either Binghamton or Buffalo, wherever the best pitching coach is.

© Judy Kamilhor 2010

Why Baseball Is A Crazy Game

2010-05-09T20:47:00.000-04:00

Who's better, Johan Santana or Oliver Perez?

Stupid question, right? Well, if you look at wins and losses, Santana is 3-2 and Perez is 0-2. If you look at ERA, though, Perez is at 4.50 and Santana at 4.54. ERA usually represents a decent, if quick, look at pitching performance, but obviously it is useless this year in answering my question.

The difference between Santana and Perez is that Santana knows how to pitch, is a great competitor, and is capable of winning even without his best stuff. Perez, not so much. One additional statistic that begins to differentiate between the two pitchers is innings pitched.

Santana has pitched 41 2/3 innings in seven starts so far (5.95 per game), while Perez has pitched 30 innings in six starts (5 per game). Santana has pitched fewer than 6 innings twice so far, while Perez has pitched six or more innings just twice.

I'm sure that by the end of the season, Santana's ERA will be considerable lower than Perez's, but it's really strange that their ERAs are so close right now, given that most fans would love to see Perez kicked out of the starting rotation (if not out of New York City altogether), and few people are suggesting that Santana is hurting the team.

Again, I suggest that the best solution to the team's problem with its starting rotation is to use John Maine and Oliver Perez as costarters, essentially sharing one game every five days, while adding Hisanori Takahashi or calling up Dillon Gee to be the team's fourth starter.

I don't know why teams don't get creative with this stuff, given that starters can barely pitch six innings nowadays, and there is so much reliance on questionable bullpens to decide games. What about having eight starters who split games, with a four man rotation of four sets of costarters? You would need no more than three extra pitchers, all of whom should have experience coming into a game with men on base and being able to close out a game when necessary.

Ideally, you would have four righty starters and four lefties, and you would chose the one to actually start based on the opponent, ballpark, and how well the two are performing at the time. The other starter would come in around the 5th or 6th inning, but only to start an inning, never with runners on base. That's what the three extra guys are for.

If you have a guy like Roy Halladay, then you would use either six costarters for the three games following Halladay (assuming he's willing to pitch on three days' rest most of the time), or eight costarters, with Halladay pitching 8 or 9 innings every fifth day.

The whole concept of starting pitchers is practically pointless given that pitchers pitch much more effectively when they are in the bullpen and don't have to see the same hitters three or more times every game. With a costarter system, the starters and the backup starters would only see a hitter twice a game for the most part, thus theoretically at least, improving his performance.

In addition, the lefty-righty substitution would screw up any platooning that the opponents are doing, an added benefit.

Bear in mind, however, that my real solution to the crappy pitching across MLB is to go back to Nolan Ryan's system: complete games by "real" starters who know how to pitch, and know how to finish what they start. Back to 9 or 10 man pitching staffs, and a bench of position players, with a third catcher and everything.

Either way, though, no more 12 and 13 man pitching staffs! And no more Eighth Inning Guys (or baseball gods forbid, Seventh Inning Specialists).

Caroms Off the Wall

Even with the unfortunate loss today, the Mets are still better than I expected. And the Red Sox are much worse. Baseball is a really crazy game.

© Judy Kamilhor 2010

Damn Phillies, But All Hope Isn't Lost

2010-05-03T19:49:00.000-04:00

It's not the end of the world, but it sure would have been nice for the Mets to win yesterday with their ace against the oldest pitcher on Earth. There's plenty of season left, and it looks like the Mets can make something good out of this season that didn't seem very promising (to me) before the season started.

I have to say that although I don't like the way Jerry Manuel manages a game, I have to give him credit for creating the right tone by focusing on the importance of how a team and individuals handle the inevitable adversity that baseball brings so often.

With a little more creativity in making the best of the team the Mets have, and the players they are still missing, I can see this being a relatively successful season, especially with the questionable talent and performance level in the National League this year.

The first thing I would do if I somehow woke up and found myself sitting in the manager's office at Citi Field is minimize my worst asset. That asset is the back of the starting rotation, and my solution is simple: Use John Maine and Oliver Perez as co-5th starters, and put Takahashi or Dillon Gee into the 4th slot.

The way it would work is that depending on the opposing team and the stadium, I would choose one or the other of Maine and Perez to start when their turn comes up. The other pitcher would come in to start the 5th or 6th inning, with a reliever being used if the starter gets knocked out in the middle of an inning. The two of them should be able to pitch 8 or 9 innings combined, thus making the fifth spot in the rotation a time to save the bullpen not expend it when either Maine or Perez starts. If Gee is brought up, I would replace Manny Acosta, and not a position player.

If somehow whichever guy starts pitches really well, and pitches 7+ innings and the game is close, I would use my usual late inning guys and keep the other co-starter available for long relief in the next couple of games. Maine and Perez would have an opportunity to show significant improvement, and if they don't improve, it won't kill the team.

I would also like to see Chris Carter replace Frank Cattalanotto as soon as possible. Cattalanotto is a good guy, and was worth a shot, but he is not contributing anything but good quotes and a good story. Carter has a good energy level, and possibly a more powerful bat, which would be really nice in the late innings.

As for yesterday, I am not worried about Santana, because his velocity was the same as it's been all season. His location was off, and every pitcher has that happen once every few starts. The team scored some runs for him, which was nice to see. My hope is that the rest of the team will pick him up, starting tonight against the Reds, after he has picked them up so many times.

Lastly, Reyes needs a day or two off.

© Judy Kamilhor 2010

Mets After 5 Games

2010-04-11T10:30:00.000-04:00

So far, so almost-2009. The Mets have demonstrated some of last year's problems, especially a lack of clutch hitting and some questionable defense. The injury problems have certainly not disappeared, although most of the pitchers are healthy, which is a huge lift.

On the other hand, there are definitely signs for optimism. The starting pitching has been a little better than expected, the bullpen has been much better than expected, and Jose Reyes is "back." I'm using quotes because Reyes looks like a player who missed major league Spring Training. And not just at the plate. The funny thing is that every time I saw a video clip of Reyes during the early part of Spring Training, before the whole thyroid issue came up, he was bobbling grounders left and right.

Playing shortstop in the major leagues is not easy, and it takes a while to get into the flow. The good news is that the Mets might easily have won yesterday if Reyes had been in mid-season form with his legs, defense, and hitting.

Oliver Perez looked okay to me. I know the results weren't great, but he's not spinning, and his focus seems a little better. I am concerned with the loss of velocity, and not just for Perez, but for Santana and Maine, too. If it weren't for Jennry Mejia, I would say the Mets are using a slower speed gun this year, but that's not the problem. Maine and Perez are too young to be losing 4-5 mph on their fastballs, so it makes me wonder what is going on. As for Santana, his results were good in game one, but he is not the dominant pitcher he was with the Twins.

Santana seems to have entered the second phase of his career, where command and grit will provide good results, rather than dominant stuff. If anyone can succeed that way, it's him, so I'm not too concerned. His slight decline, though, is another reason to put Mejia back in the minors as a starter, where he belongs. By next year, I'd love to see Mejia become the number two starter the Mets have needed desperately since Glavine and Pedro Martinez stopped pitching like aces while with the Mets.

I love the two Japanese relievers. Igarashi looks like John Belushi doing that samurai schtick from Saturday Night Live. Takahashi pitches like the late Tug McGraw, that wonderful old screwball.

My concerns so far:

John Maine: It's time to wonder whether he will ever again be more than a bottom of the rotation starter.

David Wright: He has the yips. There, I said it. His defense is regressing every year, and now he not only can't throw straight to first base, but he is backing up on grounders again, and letting them eat him up. And, if Fernando Martinez or Ruben Tejada had hit a ball against the wall and gone into a home run trot, they would have been ripped to shreds. When Wright does it, it's a big joke. Not acceptable behavior by Wright or the usually great SNY announcing team of Gary Cohen, Ron Darling, and Keith Hernandez.

First Base: How many teams have not one, but two first basemen in Triple A that are better all-around players than all their first basemen on the big club? It doesn't make sense that Jennry Mejia and Ruben Tejada are ready to play in the major leagues (at least to replace injured players), but Ike Davis and Fernando Martinez are not. And even if you want to keep Davis in Triple A for a few months to slow the arbitration/free agent clock, how about Chris Carter? The guy is in his prime; it's now or never, and he's obviously primed to be in the major leagues. Why not give him a few weeks to show what he can do?

Second base: Luis Castillo was probably the Mets' MVP last year, at least among position players. However, his lack of range and hustle on defense are killing the team. Alex Cora is a much better second baseman, and my guess is that there is not that much of a difference offensively to justify Castillo being the starter. At this point, I would like to see the two guys split the position for a while, and see if the team plays better with one or the other in the lineup. I wonder how long it will be before Ruben Tejada will be the best of the three?

And, I have to mention the poor decision to let Nelson Figueroa go and keep Sean Green. It's one thing to keep someone young and talented instead of a journeyman like Nelson, but Sean Green is neither. I suppose it's more an emotional thing than not, but wouldn't it have been cool for Figueroa to be introduced on Opening Day at Citi Field as a member of the 2010 New York Mets? Good luck in Philly, Nelson. You'll be missed.

So, I would say that this is still not a playoff caliber team, but there is definitely hope for the future in Davis, Mejia, Tejada, Martinez, and the other young prospects following them. My one hope is that Omar Minaya does not trade one or more top prospects for some aging veteran that has very little left. Those days are long gone.

© Judy Kamilhor 2010

I Won't Predict, I Won't Predict, Oh Why Not?

2010-04-03T14:36:00.000-04:00

These are my playoff teams for 2010:

AL
Boston
New York Yankees

Minnesota

Texas

NL
Atlanta
Philadelphia

St. Louis

Colorado

Mets Prediction:

The Mets will be better than last year, but not by much. A lot of people will be fired. The team in September will be much younger than the one in May, and will promise better things to come. There is virtually no chance for them to make the playoffs this year.

© Judy Kamilhor 2010

Response to Brooklyn Met Fan

2010-03-22T17:53:00.000-04:00

The big debate in the Queens part of NY baseball world is focusing on who should be the starting shortstop while Jose Reyes recuperates. Brooklyn Met Fan posted this article, and suggested that Tejada should start, because he is younger and more exciting.

My comment, posted on the BMF blog: Instead of platooning by opposing pitcher, Cora and Tejada should platoon by Mets pitcher, to give some cohesion to the defense and some confidence to the pitcher. Cora should play behind Santana, Maine, and Perez, three flyball pitchers who require steady defense, and some run support.

Tejada should start for Pelfrey, who requires range at SS, and the fifth starter. After a few rotations, the team can decide how to proceed. And then, Reyes comes back, and Tejada goes back to Buffalo to work on SS and 2B, just in case Reyes and/or Castillo get hurt/sick/very old.

The State of the Mets, Slightly Revised

2010-03-15T17:41:00.001-04:00

Midway through exhibition games, the team is starting to take shape. There are several position battles going on, more than the team expected before Spring Training started, due to the Jose Reyes thyroid situation.

Some battles are basically over, Angel Pagan will most likely be the opening day CF, and the starter until Carlos Beltran returns. At first base, Daniel Murphy will likely be the regular, possibly platooning with Fernando Tatis. As well as they have played, I agree with the idea of sending Fernando Martinez and Ike Davis down to Buffalo to get some more seasoning. If the Mets were soup, it would definitely need more seasoning.

Some expected battles are still very murky, especially the setup guy and the fifth starter. Kelvim Escobar's possible absence for at least the first part of the season opens this up to anyone who impresses enough. I expect Ryota Igarashi to be the guy on opening day, even though I think Pedro Feliciano is the best choice. If the Mets had other lefties to choose from, they could put Feliciano in as the "bridge" to Francisco Rodriguez, where I think he would excel. I've never seen him as a LOOGY, since he seems to pitch better with more batters to face. And he's probably their best reliever all-around, including Rodriguez. Certainly that was true last year.

The fifth starter competition is supposed to be between Jon Niese and Fernando Nieve (whose last names are exactly the same except for one letter, which is weird). Throw in Nelson Figueroa, the people's choice, and you have a good pool to choose from. When you watch them pitch, though, they look more like Triple A pitchers. There is one guy who looks like a major leaguer: Hisanori Takahashi. He's not only better than the other fifth starter candidates, but he may well be better than Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez, and John Maine.

This, Omar Minaya, is why you should always bring in more starters than you need, even if you think your guys are just as good. You never know. Pitching is like weather: unpredictable, and goes from awesome to awful in the blink of an eye.

I would still love to see the team sign Yunesky Maya (sometimes spelled Yuniesky, incorrectly I have discovered). Send him to Buffalo to get acclimated to American life, and have him available as soon as the inevitable injuries/illnesses/slumps/yips occur.

The last expected position battle is for the last bench spot. The candidates are Mike Jacobs, Frank Catalanotto, and Chris Carter. While most baseball writers and sportscasters say it should be Jacobs or Catalanotto, I say it should be Chris Carter, at least to start the season. My main reason is that he is the only one that is in his prime, and it's time to see what he's got now, because he's probably never going to be any better. Jacobs seems to be starting the downhill portion of his career, and Catalanotto is just trying to hang on. Ideally, the two older guys are willing to go to Buffalo for a while, to see how things shake out, and Carter makes the team as the left handed bat off the bench and backup at 1B and the corner OF spots.

The unexpected position battle is the temporary (we pray) starting shortstop. Ruben Tejada and Alex Cora are the leading candidates, with Anderson Hernandez and Russ Adams looming in the background. The least likely starting shortstop is the one that started out as the most likely starting shortstop, Jose Reyes. I don't know about you, but I am beginning to rethink the whole Wright and Reyes being the starting left side of the infield for the next ten years.

Not only is Reyes unlikely to age well--given his almost total reliance on his legs for his talent--he is having a very hard time just staying on the field right now. I don't want to be an alarmist (I know "alarmist Met fan" is redundant), but the Mets need to at least consider a Plan B for the shortstop of the future title. It's too late now, but I was really hoping the Mets signed the young Cuban Adeiny Hechavarria (again, also spelled Hechevarria, incorrectly I believe).

Right now, Wilmer Flores, Ruben Tejada, and Reese Havens are potential starting shortstops in the next few years, but all of them are projected to move to another position before reaching the majors. This is partially due to the presence of Reyes, but also to the lack of obvious defensive dominance at SS. Flores is projected to play 1B, 3B, or RF, and the other two are already being considered as second basemen by many around the team.

If I were the GM, I'd ask the White Sox about Omar Vizquel. He would be the perfect guy to start at SS while Reyes recuperates. And once Reyes comes back, Vizquel would be an excellent backup SS and mentor to Reyes.

Here's a post by Patrick Flood about Alex Cora, along with a couple of smart-ass remarks by me, bb gods. The good news is that Alex Cora makes up for poor range with excellent positioning and excellent baseball instinct. The bad news is that offensively, even with excellent baseball instinct, he still doesn't produce much. The challenge in choosing a starting (temp) shortstop is that Ruben Tejada is going to look like he covers more ground, because his range and speed are much better than Cora's, but his inferior positioning and knowledge of the league will cause him to not get to some balls that Cora will.

In other words, there are not enough defensive metrics available with Tejada to show which one is the better all-around fielder right now. This is a case where perception might win the battle: Tejada is perceived to be the top fielding shortstop available, so he will probably get the spot.

If the Mets can't get an obviously superior defensive SS, I would platoon Tejada and Cora, based on the Mets pitcher rather than the opposing pitcher. Santana, Perez, and Maine are flyball pitchers, so I would use Cora behind them; Pelfrey is a groundball pitcher, so I would use Tejada behind him. And I would look at the team's results for the first few weeks, to see if one SS is actually making more plays than the other, based on defensive metrics such as UZR, ground ball double play percentage, etc. You need to compare apples to apples as much as possible, and performance with the Mets over the first few weeks of the season is the best sample to look at.

Caroms Off the Wall

Don't you think Bob Ojeda would be a better pitching coach than Dan Warthen? I do. His analysis is so insightful, and I really enjoy listening to him.

© Judy Kamilhor 2010

State of Baseball Address

2010-01-30T14:41:00.000-05:00

Yes, Joe Magrane did this on the MLB network, but everyone's entitled to an opinion of the great game of baseball. So here's my assessment of the game, including what's working, what needs improvement, and some suggestions for the future.

First of all, the game is still vibrant. The fan base is passionate, the debates are inspired, and the game as a whole has not fallen off the national past-time landscape as many people feared over the past few decades. The MLB network IS the greatest thing since sliced bread, and maybe better.

My favorite TV show right now is the Hot Stove Live, except when they get a little too cute with the staged pieces. It's totally unnecessary, since the show is exactly what fans and people in the game need during the long, cold offseason. The best thing about Hot Stove Live, and the network as a whole, is the noticeable lack of loud, screaming, insulting analysts like you find on most TV and radio sports talk shows.

The one show I can live without is Front Burner. I feel terrible for Tom Verducci (MLB insider and Sports Illustrated Magazine's Senior Writer). He's one of the most engaging and insightful baseball analysts around, and on this show he has to act like a game show host. Sad, and again, unnecessary. I know it sounds strange coming from a "fan" rather than "real" baseball writer, but I don't need to hear what the fans think. That's what blogs and talk radio are for. I want expert analysis and access to the people playing and managing the game.

I appreciate the effort to integrate women into the network, but I have to say it won't be real to me until an unattractive, middle-aged woman is on the show, providing expert analysis and top-notch reporting, and not just showing cleavage and asking canned questions to the various insiders. That will come in time, and is not a problem specific to MLB network, so I am willing to put it on a back burner, if you will.

Back to the game itself, I've hated the DH since its inception and my opinion hasn't changed. However, I am beginning to wonder if the different rules for different leagues serves a useful purpose after all. The ongoing debate about which league is better, and which rule is better, keeps people passionately debating, which is good for the game. So while I would ideally love to see the DH banished to the same place as flat catcher's gloves and umpire's outside chest protectors, I am willing to keep it for the time being.

Video replay for home runs is very interesting, and the idea of replay for fair and foul calls makes sense. Any of the judgment calls like plays at bases and balls and strikes I would not like to see. I can't remember who suggested it, but it would be great to have a video replay umpire as an extra person on the umpiring crew, to avoid all the time wasting of the current system. Just please don't let the managers throw out red challenge flags. You can put an eye out with one of those.

I agree with Joe Magrane about bringing back bullpen carts. I always get nervous when I see a 300 pound setup guy sprinting in from the outfield. This is a heart attack waiting to happen, folks, and besides, the carts were fun, especially the baseball-shaped ones. It's also a great promotional opportunity, like NASCAR sponsor ads all over race cars.

Many people have addressed the slow play issue, and I have long thought that the use of relief pitchers has turned the last three innings of baseball games into the last two minutes of college basketball games, where constant play stoppages from intentional fouls bring the suspense to a grinding halt. My solution is that there should be a set number of warmup pitches each team can use each inning. Once that number is reached, any subsequent pitchers have to come in and pitch without warming up (other than in the bullpen, of course).

On a related note, the best idea I've seen from other baseball writers is that player visits need to be counted the same as bench visits to the mound. The second visit means the pitcher has to be removed. Those two rule changes would speed the game up and with any luck shorten the parade of relief pitchers at the end of games.

My favorite baseball person right now is not a current player, but rather Nolan Ryan. His effort to restore the dignity and effectiveness of starting pitchers by stretching them out to pitch more innings is the greatest thing since the MLB network. It has to be an organizational philosophy that starts the second a young player shows up in the minor leagues, and in Texas that is what they are doing. The baseball gods love this idea, and I know they are up there smiling at the Rangers and will nudge them into the playoffs before long.

The key idea here is that managers like Tony LaRussa, as brilliant as he is, have changed the mindset of pitchers to make them into these fragile pawns, rather than the powerful initiators of action and masters of their teams' fortunes that they used to be. With all the improvements in sports medicine, and the increase in size and strength of players over the past few decades, pitchers should be pitching more than they used to, not less. Pitchers should pitch fewer innings as they age, not more, the whole system has been backwards for too long.

The Verducci effect has been used to justify severe pitch counts and innings limitations, but if you look at what he says, it's the rapid increase in innings from year to year that hurts young pitchers, not the totals themselves. This does not contradict the Ryan experiment at all, just start them at a higher innings limit in the beginning and gradually increase it until it gives pitchers the strength and more importantly the confidence to pitch nine innings whenever necessary.

One of the best ideas related to rosters that I've seen (again, I wish I remembered whose idea this is) is to let teams use larger rosters (I would say 30 players for every team) in April instead of up to 40 in September. Many people have pointed out how stupid it is to have extra players possibly decide division and wild card races, especially when some teams bring up 10 players and some 3, causing all kinds of roster size inequities.

Just push the minor league season back a few weeks and let some competition spill into the early regular season. In September, the minor league teams would still be playing, but top prospects can always be called up as part of the 25 man roster. The loopholes about postseason eligibility need to be eliminated, too. None of this DL manipulations that allow players that were not on the major league roster on August 31 to be able to play in the playoffs.

There is debate about roster size during the season as well. Some advocate raising it from 25 to 26, to recognize the reliance on added pitchers over the years. Some even say it should be 24, to force managers to use pitchers more economically. To me, 25 is fine, as long as my other suggested rules changes and philosophical changes are put into effect. I miss the a deeper bench, including a third catcher, which allows other catchers to pinch hit, and allow for more pinch runners for catchers and others late in a close game. In other words, more strategy decisions.

If I had to choose 24 or 26, I'd go for 24. One thing we don't have enough of is the two-way player a la Brooks Kieschnick. A 24 man roster would encourage teams to find these guys to use as mop-up pitchers and pinch hitters, or even better, a useful two-way player like Micah Owings, who is a legitimate major league pitcher and position player.

I support a world-wide draft with bonuses based simply on round picked, so that less successful small market teams don't have to consistently pay more than more successful large market teams for their new prospects.

I would restrict the Rule 5 Draft to let only bottom half of the league teams add players, and only top half of the league teams lose players. The intent is to prevent stockpiling of talent by the winning teams like the Yankees. The way it is right now, teams like the Pirates actually get punished for stockpiling prospects, which makes no sense.

The whole 40 man roster structure needs to be reexamined. It is a throwback to an older day and age, and might not make sense anymore. It causes minor league players to get released simply because the team acquires a new major league player. Who does that help? Let minor league free agency take care of this kind of thing after the season.

Okay, I could go on, but this is enough for this year. Even Obama can't address everything all at once. The point here is that baseball is the greatest game, but it can always be improved here and there to keep the passionate debates and the hot stove fueled for years to come.

Caroms Off The Wall

RIP Jane Jarvis, first organist for the New York Mets. She's been missed since she stopped playing for the Mets and now she will be missed as the icon she was. The Mets should pay tribute to her by bringing back the organ and trashing that horrible canned rock music that is several decibels too loud and totally out of sync with the action of the field.

If you look up replacement level pitcher in the baseball statistics glossary, there's a picture of Josh Fogg.

Domo arigato, Mr. Delgado. (Thank you, Mr. Delgado, in Japanese, which the Mets used to flash on the big screen when Carlos Delgado hit a home run.)

© Judy Kamilhor 2010

Forgot about the Cuban defectors

2010-01-28T18:59:00.001-05:00

There are some more free agents out there that haven't turned down the Mets yet, as far as we know. Yuniesky Maya and Leslie Anderson, both Cuban defectors, could be worth a shot. Maya is a 27 year old pitcher, and Anderson is a 26 year old OF/1B, and both sound like they could help the Mets this year after a short time in the minors to adjust, perhaps.

I don't know what kind of money these guys are looking for, but at this point it's the kind of risk a team like the Mets should be willing to take. There is no draft pick compensation, no prospects to give in return, just cash, which the Mets keep saying they have.

As the guy says in the disturbingly humorous Cole Hamels ad, "Come on, Omar!"

© Judy Kamilhor 2010

Can't Believe the Mets Missed Out on Timo Perez

2010-01-28T14:46:00.002-05:00

Am I the only one who thinks Nick Evans would be a better platoon partner with Daniel Murphy at first base than Fernando Tatis? Nothing against (Little Buddha) Tatis; I love him, and if I had a daughter, I'd let her marry him, but he's not the answer. First things first at first, I don't really think Murphy has had enough time to show what he can do against lefties anyway. I'd like to see what he can do as the full-time first baseman before making any moves, but it's too late early around here.

Every day, I am more convinced that Omar Minaya is a bad general manager. And I am totally convinced that the Mets' management structure is broken and needs to be completely revamped. The good news is that a bad start will likely lead to the firing of Omar Minaya. The bad news is that short of a team sale, Jeff Wilpon is not going anywhere.

There are fewer and fewer free agents available every day, and yes, they're probably cheap, but since when are the Mets are a small-market team? Really, the only two advantages that the Mets have over other teams is the large-market promotional opportunities and money, money, money.

Now that they have to compete with teams like San Diego, Washington, and Kansas City for the dregs of the free agent season, the only reason a player would come to the Mets is for more money and more attention. And yet, no one is signing with the Mets, except for Omar's old friends, and oddly, Japanese guys that are totally unforecastable.

The only question is: what do the Mets do now?

If I were in charge, I'd try to trade for Bronson Arroyo without giving up top prospects, by paying his entire salary. If Cincinnati doesn't bite, I'd sign Chien-Ming Wang to a two-year, incentive-laden contract and let him work himself back into major league shape for the second half of the season. He is not going to be as good as was in his Yankee prime, but he is a bull-dog, and has proven to be able to handle New York, unlike Erik Bedard, Jarrod Washburn, and some of the others.

The only other pitcher of interest is actually Braden Looper. Met fans probably still hate him for being an ineffective (and injured) closer, but now he is a reliable and durable starter, along the lines of Jon Garland.

I'd also sign John Smoltz to be a reliever/part-time pitching coach. He is one of the best pitchers I've ever seen, and I think he has a few good innings left, and more importantly, pitching wisdom. Between him and Johan Santana, the Mets would at least have Hall-of-Fame caliber mentors for the holy unpredictable triumvirate of Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, and Oliver Perez.

I'd sign Orlando Hudson to a one year deal, and release Luis Castillo if I can't get any kind of prospect for him (and of course, pay 90-95% of his salary to give the other team a real reason to get him).

The team could use a couple of lefty relievers to add to the competitive mix in Spring Training. They need a real LOOGY so Pedro Feliciano can be used in a more extensive role as a set-up guy who can pitch more than one inning. I know Jerry Manuel prefers to use him more often for shorter stints, but I'm entitled to disagree with him, and I do about this. I've said for years that Feliciano is usually the best or second best reliever on the team, and has only recently gotten the love from the media. Maybe try to sign a failed lefty starter and see what he can do in the pen. Rich Hill would have been interesting in that role, but it's too late for him, too.

Signing Johnny Gomes as a competitor for the final bench spot would make sense, too. I'd rather have him than Gary Matthews, Jr. because at least he is good at something, hitting for power. Something the Mets certainly need more of. But then again, I'd rather have Gary Matthews, Sr. or Garry Maddox than GM Jr.

My last move would be to hire a guy like Will Carroll to consult about the injury problem, and maybe a brilliant sports psychologist/mental skills coach. If he or she (yes, I'm available) doesn't help the players, maybe the front office can pick up some IQ points. The Mets need to make some changes in how they deal with health, focus, and lacks thereof. Carroll is a genius when it comes to pitching injuries, and the Mets need more geniuses as much as they need more power.

Let's Go Mets! I'm trying hard to keep an open mind as I wait for pitchers and catchers.

Caroms Off the Wall

Domo arigato, Mr. Delgado.

© Judy Kamilhor 2010

Another Crazy Idea

2010-01-26T12:28:00.000-05:00

Okay, so maybe being off work is causing some kind of hallucinogenic effect, but here's another idea to consider for the Mets. How about trying Josh Thole at second base for the Buffalo Bisons. He can still catch a few times a week, but how about giving him a crash course in infield play? His hitting profiles better as a second baseman than as a catcher or corner IF or OF, and his strong arm can make up for some range limitations.

The fact is that Luis Castillo has very little range, and isn't as good a hitter as Thole right now. I've wondered what Daniel Murphy would be able to do at 2B as well. I know they tried him there briefly in the minors, but again, he can't be much worse than Castillo.

Signing someone like Russell Branyan, and eventually moving Thole and/or Murphy to 2B would be a radical move, but instantly improve the power and offense, without hurting the defense all that much (we'll see). This would require Murphy being sent down, which he probably would be anyway if the Mets sign another first baseman.

The point, as always, is that Mets need to be much more creative and intelligent with their resources than they are right now.

Random Caroms Off the Wall

It's great to hear about and see Santana and Perez throwing in Port St. Lucie. Makes me want to pick something up and throw it. Where's that Nerf ball?

© Judy Kamilhor 2010

Crazy Idea

2010-01-23T12:40:00.005-05:00

To add onto my last post, the other option for the Mets is to make a trade instead of, or in addition to, signing some more free agents. Two guys that I have wanted for the Mets for a long time both conveniently play for the same team.

Bronson Arroyo and Micah Owings are two pitchers that could help the Mets, in very different ways. Arroyo, obviously, would improve the rotation, giving the team a tough-minded veteran that thrives in pressure situations, at least judging by his performances with the Red Sox a few years ago.

Owings is the crazy part. I would love to see him become a two-way player ala Brooks Kieschnick, part-time at first base and part-time relief pitcher. Owings' career major league batting stats:

G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K AVE OB SLG OPS

112	184	170	23	51	14	2	8	31			8	56	.300	.331	.547	.879

112

184

170

.300

.331

.547

.879

He would be perfect as a platoon partner with Murphy at 1B, a pinch hitter, and a multipurpose reliever. He played 1B in college as well as DH, so he's no stranger to the position, and he is the real deal with a bat in his hand.

How about Mike Pelfrey for Arroyo and Owings?

© Judy Kamilhor 2010

Now What?

2010-01-23T10:11:00.004-05:00

The Mets have gotten one guy they really wanted in Jason Bay, and that's about it. What remains to be done is to significantly upgrade the rotation, replace Luis Castillo, provide competition for Daniel Murphy, and maybe add a veteran catcher.

When I heard that the Mets got Gary Matthews, Jr. I thought that just maybe, they had traded Luis Castillo for him, and were about to sign Orlando Hudson (or the other Orlando, Cabrera). No such luck. So now what?

What I'd love to see is for the Mets to sign at least two more pitchers, even three. Sheets, Smoltz, and Garland are my top choices, followed by Chien Ming Wang. I'm not sure about Washburn and Bedard being able to handle the pressure of NY fans and media. None of these guys have to get a huge contract at this point, so incentive-laden deals are the way to go. The Mets need a real competition for the starting rotation, unlike the past few years where everyone (that means you, Oliver Perez) was pretty much guaranteed a spot.

I would love to see Jon Niese step up and grab a spot in the rotation, but the Mets need more quality and depth, period.

As for the position players, upgrading second base is the only priority in my mind. Either Orlando Hudson or Orlando Cabrera is a significant enough upgrade to make it worthwhile to eat Castillo's contract and release him. Players making a whole lot more have been released (Sheffield, Byrnes), so what's the problem? It's not like they will have to pay all that much to the ODog and OCab. I read that the Mariners are considering trading Jose Lopez. He would be worth considering, as an immediate power upgrade, without hurting the defense and maybe improving it slightly.

If the Mets sign Sheets and Garland, or Sheets and Smoltz, I might be willing to trade Mike Pelfrey or John Maine for Lopez.

The bottom line is that the Mets still have options that will improve their chances in 2010, but they need to act boldly and intelligently, which is probably too much to ask.

© Judy Kamilhor 2010

What if Mark Messier ran the Mets?

2010-01-17T23:02:00.000-05:00

Joel Sherman's Hardball blog entry for January 14, 2010 was headlined Beltran Issue Gets Messier for Mets. And for one brief, shining moment I actually thought the Mets had somehow hired Mark Messier to fix their management problem.

No such luck. Omar Minaya and Jeff Wilpon are still running the team. The only thing that has changed since the end of last season is the calendar. No one is healthier, communication challenges still abound, and we are once again looking at Angel Pagan to open the season in the outfield.

My little misreading of Sherman's headline prompted me to think about the baseball equivalent of Mark Messier. Great leader, fearless player, single-minded determination to win, willing to put his team on his back. Two names that came to me are Derek Jeter and Keith Hernandez. Neither is quite up to the level of Messier, though, because Jeter often shies away from the media responsibilities of leading his team. Hernandez doesn't cut it for giving up on the Mets in game six of the 1986 World Series.

For pure leadership ability, the best in baseball that I know of was Gil Hodges. He wasn't brash and willing to put himself on the line the way Messier did in guaranteeing the Rangers would win in 1994, but he would sure look good in the dugout right now. If the team can't fix its top management, having a great field manager like Hodges would certainly help a lot.

So if it's not Jeter, Hernandez, or Hodges, I'm stuck. Maybe baseball has never had someone with Messier's qualities, and maybe baseball is a different enough game from hockey that there will never be someone quite like him. All I am saying is that the Mets need to rebuild their management from the top down, hiring a team president that will change the way things are done around here.

I am willing to give the team one more year, and then starting from the top, rebuild with the best baseball minds there are. Actually, I just thought of the perfect guy, but he's already doing this exact thing for the Rangers. The Texas Rangers. His name is Nolan Ryan. And the Mets traded him away.

© Judy Kamilhor 2010

Glad I'm a Red Sox Fan, Too

2009-12-24T16:30:00.000-05:00

It's much more fun rooting for the Red Sox than the Mets these days, although the Yankees have been making it tough to feel too optimistic. Thank the baseball gods for the AL Wildcard.

Since Jason Bay obviously wants no part of the Mets (or they just haven't gotten around to making a five-year contract offer), the Red Sox should sign him as the DH. That way, the OF defense remains outstanding, and the offense improves. The only big problem is Big Papi. Is it time to release or salary-dump their biggest clutch performer of the past decade? Yes.

Big Papi has one year left, for $12.5 million in 2010. There is a team option with no buyout for 2011 for another $12.5 million which obviously will not be picked up. There could be a team willing to take him on as DH for one year, maybe with Boston paying a bit of his salary. David Ortiz is listed as being 34 years old, by the way. I don't believe it.

© Judy Kamilhor 2009

To Rebuild or Not to Rebuild, Is that the Question?

2009-12-20T18:49:00.000-05:00

Bob Klapisch link

Mets Police link

On Fox Sports, Bob Klapisch posted the above article on December 19, 2009. Mets Police responded with the link under the Klapisch link above.

The following is my comment posted on the Mets Police site:

"If I trusted the management of this team, yes, rebuilding would be the dramatic and creative approach to fixing this team.

But I don't, and neither does anyone else, so I prefer continuing with the guys the Mets have now, with a few free agents brought in like Bay, a less-greedy catcher than Molina, and some guys like Sheets/Mulder/Bedard on incentive-laden deals.

When that fails to produce a play-off team, then fire Minaya and rebuild the management structure (getting rid of Jeff Wilpon from his position of total power would be the place to start)." (posted as kami haiku gmail)

If I had posted it on my haiku blog, I would have said:

don't rebuild the team
until you fire and rebuild
the Mets' front office

Off-Season's Greetings and Happy Holidays to all!

PS: Dear Jason Bay: If you don't want to play for the Mets, just say so!

© Judy Kamilhor 2009

Some thoughts while waiting for someone else to cook a turkey

2009-11-26T11:37:00.001-05:00

I'm not very optimistic about 2010 for the New York Mets, or 2011 for that matter. And as for 2012, well maybe we should hope the Mayans were right.

Amazingly, the Mets are still looking for a 2nd starting pitcher, something they neglected to do last off-season. And since the Mets usually try to fix last year's problem this year, they will probably miss out on anticipating what 2010's weaknesses will be.

If they sign Randy Wolf this year, for 2nd starter money, it will be almost as stupid as signing Oliver Perez for what they signed him for last year. The only reason Randy Wolf is a good idea is that he gets paid like a 4th starter and pitched better than that. He's not that good, and overpaying is exactly the kind of thing Omar Minaya does.

They need to sign John Lackey, or trade for someone really good. Josh Johnson is the guy I want. I'd trade any four prospects for him without a second thought. Roy Halladay would work, too, but he's considerably older than Johnson, so I'd give Toronto a weaker package, maybe three top prospects.

Getting one more top pitcher isn't enough, though. The Mets should be looking to add depth with low-risk, high-reward guys like Mark Mulder, Ben Sheets, and/or John Smoltz, on short-term, incentive-laden contracts. I'd also look to sign Jason Marquis or Joel Pineiro to compete with Pelfrey, Maine, and Perez at the back of the rotation.

In my mind, there are no untouchables on the Mets right now. Not one guy I wouldn't trade in the right deal. It's all about what you can get for the guy. Metsblog asked readers if they would be willing to trade Fernando Martinez, and it's the wrong question. What would you be willing to trade him for? That's the thing to ask.

I'd trade Martinez in a second if he were valued as a top prospect by the other team. Otherwise, I'd keep him and let him try to rebuild his value by having a healthy, successful season. I'd trade Jose Reyes if he were valued as a young all-star, not if what they can get in return is less than they would have gotten in the recent past. Selling low is bad strategy, period.

Angel Pagan is a good test case. If another team sees him as an every day outfielder, the Mets would be foolish not to trade him. I seriously doubt that he will ever be any more than he is, a 4th outfielder who is a big tease. He looks like he should be much better than he actually is, and the Mets should be trying to sucker someone into giving up a useful piece in exchange. Let someone else take this gamble.

Position player moves I would want to see are trading for someone like Mike Lowell to be the backup at 1b and 3b. He's a winner, and his contract only has one year remaining, freeing up the position for Ike Davis. I still believe in Daniel Murphy as the primary first baseman, even though I expect the Mets to trade him before long.

Like most people, I would love to exchange Luis Castillo (and some cash) for anything useful, and upgrade at 2b. Brandon Phillips would be my top choice, followed by Orlando Hudson, but only on a two-year max contract. A catcher with some power would be nice, although I am intrigued by a Josh Thole/Omir Santos combo. I really like both of them, and by 2011, it will probably be Thole starting and Santos backing him up.

There is no reason that the Mets can't sign Jason Bay or Matt Holliday, even if they sign John Lackey, or trade for an ace. The only chance the Mets have to win with this ownership/"leadership" group is to spend more money than their competitors. They are not going to be outsmarting anyone anytime soon. The guys they need are available; few teams seem willing to open their pocketbooks right now; so make the moves.

This idea of waiting to see how the market develops is for losers. Winners target the guys they think will help them win, and they go all out. See the 2009 Yankees.

To sum up, I'm not confident that the Mets will make the right moves, but I'll try to keep an open mind. The Mets could be just two players away from winning the World Series; those players are Satchel Paige and Josh Gibson in their primes.

Caroms Off the Wall

I've been a fan of the Strat-O-Matic Game Company for many years, almost back to their beginnings and my own. They recently completed a set of cards for the best players from the Negro Leagues, and I have to say that these cards are a wonder to behold. Do yourself a favor, and buy this set along with the game, for any young (or old) baseball fan on your holiday shopping list. And buy one for yourself. You won't be disappointed.

© Judy Kamilhor 2009

Inevitable Since June

2009-10-30T17:56:00.000-04:00

If you're a Met fan, this World Series matchup has been inevitable since June. The worst possible teams in the worst year in Mets' history, at least the most catastrophic and disappointing.

I thought I would be able to root for the Yankees, since the Phillies are my most despised team right now. What I didn't count on was the sheer weight of almost fifty years of rooting against the Yankees no matter whom they were playing against.

I've hated the Phillies--really deeply despised--for only about 49 months, since they knocked the Mets out of the playoffs on the last day of the 2007 season. I've hated the Yankees my entire life, which is getting longer by the second.

So, I'm left with this: do I root for a long, great series, which is good for baseball? Or do I root for someone, anyone, to win in five games, with no rainouts, so the series will end approximately midnight on Monday, November 2, so that my misery will be over as soon as possible? Tough choice. I'll let you know what I decide.

Caroms Off the Wall

I like Pedro pitching a lot better than Pedro talking. I'm glad he's not on the Mets anymore. If his ego were any bigger, he wouldn't fit under a mango tree.

© Judy Kamilhor 2009

Post-Season Observations

2009-10-18T12:38:00.000-04:00

Since the Phillies, Yankees, and Dodgers are my three least-favorite MLB teams, it's been a little hard to get excited about this year's playoffs. Thank the baseball gods for my DVR, so I can skip through a lot of it.

I did watch most of the game last night between the Angels and Yankees, and have to say that the play by Maicer Izturis was about the stupidest big-time mental error I've ever seen. My immediate thought was, why isn't this guy on the Mets? The only possible reasons to throw to second on a ground ball to the second baseman in that situation are: to get a double play, or if the play at second is much easier than the play at first (in other words, the ball is hit up the middle). No way either of these is true, so the only play, as Tim McCarver said, was the play at first. Often, baseball instinct means making the less-flashy right play, instead of trying to make a spectacularly unnecessary attempt.

Between that game-killing play, and the Erick Aybar neglecting to touch second base on the phantom double play, I have to say that the Angels don't look anything like I expected. The only way they can beat the Yankees is to play flawlessly, and they are far from flawless right now. Maybe Aura and Mystique have finally arrived at the new ball park in the Bronx.

In any event, the Angels' only hope is the Rally Monkey. I don't think he will be enough this time. 2002 was a long time ago.

As for the NLCS, the guys on the MLB Network made a good case that Chase Utley's hip isn't 100% right, based on an analysis of his throws. If he can't turn the double play, he shouldn't be out there, as they pointed out. Tough choice for the Phillies, and could be the difference in the Series.

MLB will regret a NY-Philadelphia World Series, considering the weather in the Northeast right now. It would be miraculous to get through the whole series without at least one rain- or snow-out.

© Judy Kamilhor 2009

September Thoughts on the New York Mets

2009-09-07T14:09:00.001-04:00

I've been checking in on the Mets, just to see how the players are handling this weird, out-of-the-race September. What I'm looking for is baseball instinct and work ethic, mostly, because non-pressure situations can produce misleading results.

The starters, primarily Pat Misch, Tim Redding, and Nelson Figueroa, have suddenly started pitching relatively well. The real talents--Mike Pelfrey and Bobby Parnell--are pitching erratically; one game they look like future Cy Youngs, the next, like Anthony Youngs.

What I want to see is how do the young guys handle challenges. When Parnell recently got out of a bases loaded, no out situation in the 7th inning of a close game, I was impressed. Whether he ends up a starter or a reliever, that kind of mental toughness bodes well for his future.

Pelfrey looked good in his most recent game, but his mental inconsistency scares me. I don't know if he will ever truly put it together, game in and game out, season in and season out. He needs to work with someone like Dr. Richard Crowley, who has had some success treating people with the yips (aka Steve Blass Disease). Ultimately, if he doesn't toughen up, he may be better off in a not quite as relentless environment as New York.

The other three deserve a chance to stick around, at least to be invited to Spring Training in 2010, unless they can get something useful in trade.

Judging the bullpen is harder in "meaningless" games, because adrenaline is such a huge part of reliever performance. The current mindset has produced relief pitchers that can only be their best under very specific circumstances. Even Mariano Rivera sometimes struggles in tie games, because he is programmed to thrive only in one inning save situations.

One of my priorities if I were in charge of an organization is to deprogram the pitchers completely and start over with a focus on thriving in any situation. Every time you get the ball you should be able to compete, whatever the situation. This is old school baseball I know, but there's a reason that mentality lasted for a very long time. Ask Goose Gossage about relievers then and now.

The position players are providing valuable clues to their strengths and weaknesses. One observation that I'm sure about is that Angel Pagan and Cory Sullivan should switch positions. Sullivan should play CF and Pagan LF. This pair reminds me a little of the Jose Reyes/Alex Cora pair in that Pagan has much more natural ability, but Sullivan has much more baseball instinct. Their numbers are pretty similar, Sullivan's OPS is .811 and Pagan's is .832; Sullivan gets on base a bit more; Pagan has a little more power.

Defensively, I'm not clear on why Jerry Manuel has decided Pagan should play CF when the two are in the lineup. I've been wondering about the defensive depth chart for a while now. On both CBS sports and Yahoo Sports, Pagan and Reed are listed as the top CFs, while Sheffield and Sullivan are listed in LF. After watching them this year, I would have Sullivan as the CF (behind Beltran, of course), and Pagan and Reed in LF. Reed can't throw as well as the others, and Pagan simply can't handle the responsibility of captaining the OF.

If I were in charge, I would look to trade Pagan in the off season, to help restock the prospect pool. His natural abilities and current numbers might be attractive enough for a team to offer a decent prospect. The Mets are very fortunate that there is no statistic for baseball instinct, yet. Over to you, Bill James.

I like Jeff Francoeur much more than I thought I would. His energy and enthusiasm, along with his power, have given the Mets a huge lift. I was wrong about this trade. It was a good move after all. If nothing else, Francoeur seems to have the grit to show up every day and play, whether he's hurt or not. That goes a long way on this team.

In the infield, I have not lost faith in Daniel Murphy. I believe he will be a good major league player. Now that he has been put in the proper position, first base, it is up to him to find a way to improve his offensive production. He needs to get back to having the great eye from 2008, while retaining his overall aggressiveness. I see 15-20 home runs, a .300-.320 batting average, and a high on base percentage as his typical year moving forward. In this new era of decreased performance enhancement, I think he would be an asset as a regular first baseman, as long as they got more power from the other positions.

Luis Castillo has had a terrific year, surprising almost everyone. The funny thing about Castillo is that his numbers this year are very typical for him. Last year was the aberration:

2008 .245 .355 .305 .660

2009 .311 .399 .361 .760

Career .293 .369 .355 .725

Castillo is a better than average major league second baseman, and the Mets might be better off trading him at this point, as long as they can get a legitimate return. His flaws, from my perspective, are a tendency to get hurt fairly often, a maddening lack of effort on defense at times, and a general lack of energy and leadership. I think the team would be better off with Alex Cora playing second base most of the time, with Anderson Hernandez filling the rest. Hernandez is a tremendous defensive second baseman, and not a terrible hitter. Cora is a leader, and would be the perfect partner for Jose Reyes up the middle, if Reyes ever plays for the Mets again.

David Wright is fine. I've never considered him a home run hitter, as he puts too much topspin on the ball. Citi Field has just exaggerated things. Wright is much more likely to win a batting title than a home run title, which is fine as long as he keeps his average in the .330 range, and hits more consistently than he has so far. The team has too many extreme streak hitters, and needs to focus on improving consistency as much as anything else.

At this point, I would say the Mets have no choice but the keep Beltran, and to let Carlos Delgado leave as a free agent and take the draft pick(s) as compensation. They need to keep Reyes, at least until he proves he is back to his old self, which I sincerely hope is next April at the latest.

Catching is the easiest position: keep Josh Thole and Omir Santos, and let Schneider leave. Thole and Santos each hit both righties and lefties well enough that a strict platoon isn't sensible. I would rather assign the catcher to the Mets' starting pitcher, give Santos three guys to work with, and Thole two. Nurture the relationships to improve the starters' comfort levels. Most important is to find a catcher other than Schneider for Pelfrey. If they have to keep Schneider as a third catcher, just to work with Pelfrey, they should do it, or trade Pelfrey if he can't adjust.

I've said it many times, but I would start the front office from scratch and let the new GM to choose his manager. This won't happen, so the team seems stuck with Jeff Wilpon, Omar Minaya, and Jerry Manuel. In either scenario, though, the most important thing is to hire some better player development people, and change the team's philosophy to focus on acquiring youth, pitching, and defense, and just as importantly, work ethic, endurance, and baseball instinct/winning players.

© Judy Kamilhor 2009

Let's Put On a Show

2009-08-26T15:15:00.004-04:00

Now that the situation is totally out of hand, let's do what Mickey Rooney and Judy Garland used to do. Let's gather the neighborhood kids--that includes everyone on the rosters of the New York Mets, Buffalo Bisons, and Binghamton Mets--and ask for volunteers to put on a show in The Show.

The first 12 pitchers and 13 position players to raise their hands get to finish out August, and then the next 15 (if there are that many) volunteers get to join the Mets on September 1. This will be their chance to try a new position, try batting from the other side of the plate, whatever they care to work on, in exchange for risking life and limb putting on a blue and orange jersey that says New York on it.

Pick the lineup out of a hat, use a dartboard to determine who plays where, it doesn't matter. We need some tough young men to go where no man has gone before (or seemingly wants to go), being on the field when the 2009 Mets finish their season.

Thank you, baseball gods, for Johan Santana not needing Tommy John surgery at the moment. Thanks, too, for Jeff Francoeur's fighting spirit, and David Wright's leadership. This gives Met fans all over the world a glimmer of hope that 2010 won't be as bad as 2009.

Time To Start Over, Mets

2009-08-25T11:54:00.005-04:00

Now that Johan Santana has admitted he has been pitching with elbow pain, it is time to assess the future of the New York Mets organization. It is undeniable that the problems with the team go all the way to the top, and the solution must start there, too.

Here is my recommendation: ask Jeff Wilpon to remove himself from baseball operations, and hire Bobby Valentine as President. Give him full authority to hire the baseball operations staff, starting with a new General Manager. This new General Manager will get to hire a new manager.

It is clear that the team needs to focus on talent evaluation and development, and all hires should have proven expertise in player development, including draft specialists, scouts, and statistical analysts.

Spending smart has to be the approach, focusing on getting younger and more athletic, rather than spending most of their money on big-name veterans, the Omar way.

What Went Wrong This Year

1. Solving last year's problems with this year's moves.

Yes, fixing the bullpen was necessary, since 2008 proved that a weak bullpen can sink any ship. However, Omar Minaya did not look forward to analyze the 2009 roster's strengths and weaknesses, such as injury-prone position players (Reyes, Beltran, Delgado, Castillo, Church, Pagan, Schneider, and Castro) and a questionable starting rotation after Johan Santana.

In the end, he fixed the main 2008 problem by acquiring Francisco Rodriguez, J. J. Putz, and Sean Green, but he did not anticipate the 2009 problems well enough, even though many writers and fans were screaming about the need to improve the rotation, and to consider trading Delgado while he still had marquee value.

2. Injuries.

First of all, I don't believe in bad luck when it comes to injuries, any more than I believe in bad luck with relationships. You create your own luck by being physically, mentally, and emotionally prepared to show up to work for a full season of competing.

The Mets have somehow collected a bunch of guys that are not willing or able to do whatever it takes to show up from the beginning of Spring Training to the last out of the season. They have many players that are not capable of handling one or more of the following key challenges of a baseball season: adversity, opportunity, success, and pressure.

The energy of this team is so bad that even guys that I would say are total gamers, like Alex Cora, Johan Santana, David Wright, and Jeff Francoeur, have succumbed to injuries.

If I were the Mets' sports psychologist, I would diagnose the team as afraid of sustained success. With success comes responsibility to maintain that success, which leads to pressure. Pressure is trying to hold on to a 7 game lead with 17 games to play, and watching it slip away.

It is my contention that the same mentality that caused the team to collapse the past two seasons manifested physically this year as all the injuries. A mental breakdown that turned into a physical breakdown.

The only way to avoid it would have been to change the team's core during the off-season, which many people were demanding. The best move, of course, would have been to fire Omar Minaya and brought in someone fresh, but the Wilpons are either fiercely loyal or fiercely cheap.

3. Top-Heavy Roster Construction

Too much money has been invested in too few players, leading to a top-heavy team with a weak bench and Triple A roster. Once a few core players got hurt, the Mets were doomed. Teams like the Yankees and Red Sox have been better able to replace key guys, and it's not just money, it's also planning ahead.

Too many prospects have been traded away the past few years, and not enough effort has been put into replacing those prospects. Over hyping their prospects has been a classic Met move since Gregg Jefferies, if not before, and the team seems to forget the truth about their young talent.

4. Poor Roster Management

Joel Sherman has recently pointed out that losing Darren O'Day was a big blunder early in the year, but to me, this is just another example of a basic fault of Omar Minaya, the inability to be prepared for unforeseen circumstances. Losing Jesus Flores to the Nationals in the Rule 5 draft a few years ago was another blunder that continues to haunt the team.

Talented youth simply has to come before holding onto veterans, some of whom were never any good to start with. I've said it over and over, baseball is a young man's game again, and Omar Minaya is an old man's GM. It's a miracle the Mets never signed Barry Bonds.

5. Not Getting Rid of Veterans When They Had the Chance

How is Gary Sheffield still on this team? How is Billy Wagner still here? How come Minaya couldn't get something, anything, for Livan Hernandez back when he still looked useful?

The only thing I'm not sure about is how to approach the rest of the season. Some fans seem to want to call up a bunch of minor leaguers to finish out the schedule instead of the guys the Mets currently have. I think the team needs to find some guys that really want to be there, who are willing to give themselves fully to winning as many remaining games as possible.

Clearly, Gary Sheffield does not fit that description, so he needs to go. On September 1, so he can't sign with another team and be eligible for the post-season roster. Yes, it's vindictive, but he deserves it.

I would love to see some of their prospects get the call for September, and see how they handle the opportunity in a relatively low-pressure situation. I'd like to see Nick Evans back, and Brad Holt in the bullpen, and any other top prospect who is over 21, not injured, and up for a challenge.

The Mets need some enthusiasm to carry them through the dog days that will stretch all the way to the end of September this year. Good luck.

© Judy Kamilhor 2009

Chchchanges . . .

2009-08-07T16:43:00.003-04:00

Well, now that he's in the starting rotation, Bobby Parnell most likely won't end his career as the only player ever to have a 1.000 batting average and a 1.000 fielding average. But it's cool while it lasts.

Good luck, Bobby. Don't hurt yourself.

Congratulations to Mr. and Mrs. Pelfrey. Please be careful with the baby, and don't even think of bringing little Chase to Citi Field. There's no DL for infants.

This just in: the Mets have placed their entire fanbase on the 60-Day DL with social anxiety.

copyright Judy Kamilhor 2009

Time to root for the Braves to win the NL East

2009-07-19T21:23:00.002-04:00

Last week, I cancelled my DVR recordings of Met games. This week, I am officially rooting for the Braves to beat the Phillies, since obviously the Mets have no chance. I am also hoping against hope that Omar Minaya starts turning some veterans into prospects, otherwise known as "selling."

If he is afraid to sell players because ownership wants to sell tickets, he does not have a good read on the emotional state of Met fans. Most fans, including me, would rather see some hungry, young players brought in to finish the season, instead of watching this collection of broken-down, and/or broken-spirited guys.

It is time to start planning for the future, or at least the part of the future that is 2010. Anyone that is not part of the long-term plan needs to go, especially those guys that have some value to someone else. The Mets should be willing to eat most of their salaries, in order to maximize the return on players such as Gary Sheffield, Livan Hernandez, Brian Schneider, Elmer Dessens, and Luis Castillo. If Carlos Delgado returns this year, I would also include him in the list. It's probably too late to trade Jose Reyes this year, but I would shop him in the off-season.

Castillo, under the most intense fan dislike that one can experience, has actually been the Mets' most consistent offensive contributor this year. If they can entice another team to give up something useful, now is the time, before he gets hurt again, or starts to play like it was 2008.

Baseball is a young man's game, and Omar Minaya is obviously an old man's GM. He needs to adjust or get fired, simple as that. If I were the Wilpons, I would get rid of Minaya, Tony Bernazard, and any other front office guys that are causing division in management. It is time to hire player development experts and fill the organization with great teachers, especially at the lowest levels.

One great move would be to fire Dan Warthen, and hire Greg Maddux to be the pitching coach. The Braves have always had a better GM, a better manager, and usually a better pitching coach than the Mets. It's time to steal one of their great minds and start training pitchers in the Braves' way.

Caroms Off the Wall

You know your team is in trouble when an injury to Fernando Nieve is the final nail in the coffin.

© Judy Kamilhor 2009

Pretty vs. Gritty part two

2009-07-04T12:30:00.004-04:00

I ran into an old friend (a Yankee fan) yesterday, and he said he'd read the Mets were grittier than they used to be. He thought that they'd be in great shape when the parade of injured stars comes back in the next few weeks. I agreed that the Mets would certainly be adding more talent than any other team over the next few weeks, even if only half their guys actually make it back. But what happens when you add pretty to gritty? Does the grit rub off on the stars, and make the whole team tougher, or does the pretty rub off on the gritty role-players, and everyone goes back to the way the Mets have played the past two Septembers: full of stars and no toughness at all?

Then the Mets go out and play a crappy game against the Phillies, losing to a guy who hasn't pitched in the major leagues since 2007. Okay, so the team used to be about a 3 on the grit scale of 1-100, and then they went up to about a 22. Much grittier, but in the scheme of things still way behind the Phillies (were a 90, now maybe a 55?) and the Marlins (always at least an 80, even though they kick the ball around a lot). Even the Braves have a good chance to end up ahead of the Mets this year, since they have always beaten the Mets in the player development and player acquisition departments.

When teams get in the mode of waiting for stars to return, they often slump once the guys get back in the lineup, because the guys who have been carrying the load subconsciously ease up. The returning stars haven't gotten their timing and confidence back yet, and suddenly the whole team is spiralling down again.

The key players for the Mets over the next few weeks will be Johan Santana, David Wright, Francisco Rodriguez, and Ryan Church. The current leaders will need to step up and keep it up while the team transitions back into the star-studded, underachieving team of the recent past.

Most importantly, they need Santana to get back to his dominant self that we haven't seen in many weeks. I just think he has to be injured for his slump to go on this long. He doesn't look right at all, his velocity has been down, his strikeouts down, walks up, and his temper has been flaring up an awful lot. The team rarely plays well behind him (true since he joined the team), and it seems to be getting to him.

Fair or not, he has the team on his back, and he needs to do some heavy lifting, with help from Wright, Church, and Rodriguez. If the team expects Reyes, Beltran, Delgado, Maine, Perez, Putz, and Wagner to dramatically improve the results right away, they will be sorely disappointed.

Caroms Off the Wall

About the red hats: give each team a choice of a red, white, or blue hat with the red/white/blue logo, if you absolutely must have these stupid patriotic hats for Memorial Day, July 4th, and whatever else the marketing gurus come up with.

The Mets looked like Phillies or Soviets or Red Chinese. Bad!

© Judy Kamilhor 2009

Maybe Pelfrey needs to sit a bit

2009-06-27T15:41:00.003-04:00

Everyone has been asking the question which starters should be replaced when Maine and Perez return. The consensus seems to be that Redding should be replaced by Maine, and Perez should go to the bullpen for a while.

My thought is that when either Perez or Maine is ready--which looks like a couple of weeks at the earliest for either of them--Mike Pelfrey is the one that should be moved to the bullpen for at least one turn, and then Redding when the other starter is ready. Pelfrey has not looked good lately, and my guess is it is some combination of physical and mental fatigue.

Pelfrey is one of those young guys whose total number of innings increased very rapidly from one season to another, and the "Verducci effect" predicts that he will be injured or less effective the following season. I thought a big guy like Pelfrey would not have a problem with all the work, but he seems mentally susceptible to all kinds of distractions and heavy thoughts, so who knows?

In any event, if/when Maine and/or Perez is ready, it makes sense to give Pelfrey a bit of a break, just to see if it helps him get rejuvenated. Right now, Pelfrey is their number two starter, and he's going need to pitch a whole lot better if the Mets want a chance to make the playoffs.

I'm sure they will be shopping Redding as soon as Maine and Perez have shown they are healthy and reliable (as reliable as they can be, that is). I know this won't happen, but the Mets should really consider being a seller rather than a buyer this July, trying to convert some older guys into prospects and hungry younger players. Sheffield, Livan Hernandez, and Carlos Delgado (if he's ready in time) would be the guys I would look to convert into legitimate younger players, if the Mets are willing to pay most of the vets' contracts.

As I've said here for years, getting younger would actually improve their prospects, so to speak, for winning this year, since it is now officially a young man's game again in the post-steroid, post-amphetamine era.

I wouldn't mind no trades at all, but I absolutely don't want to see more prospects and young players shipped off for a fading veteran or two.

Caroms Off the Wall

Fernando Nieve looks like the real deal to me. What a break if it turns out to be true.

© Judy Kamilhor 2009

A Tale of Two Popups

2009-06-13T15:36:00.002-04:00

Last night, the Mets visited the new Yankee Stadium in the old Bronx, and the game ended with a predictable outcome: the Yankees won. How it got there was less predictable, although more than most people would think.

The Mets played like they bet against themselves. The game ended on a dropped popup to the second baseman with two outs and runners on first and second. Yes, it was horrifying, but what really stood out to me was that the runners and the batter did not assume the ball would be caught. Mark Texeira scored from first base on a dropped popup in very shallow right field.

I guarantee that if the situation was reversed, the Mets would not have scored two runs on that play. The runners would have given up, assuming the ball would be caught, and the runner on first would probably be standing on second base, not even realizing how big a mistake he just made. The batter probably would have been thrown out at first, and the game would be over with the same outcome: the Mets lose.

Obviously, that was the key play that determined the outcome. Catch the ball, Mets win; drop the ball, Yanks win. However, there was another play that the Yankees made that I doubt the Mets at full-strength (no injuries) would have. Popup over the mound. The pitcher fades back, and at the last moment, the shortstop barrels in, full-speed, to snatch the ball right above the grass. Derek Jeter made the play; Jose Reyes never would have.

Reyes is faster than Jeter, and a better athlete in every way except one: Jeter possesses great baseball instinct--the ability to create the perfect play at the perfect time--and Reyes does not. Reyes would have seen the pitcher, and veered off at the last moment to avoid getting hurt. We've seen it time after time.

For what it's worth, I think Alex Cora would have caught the ball. The Mets, when/if healthy, can have baseball instinct with mediocre talent, or no baseball instinct with huge talent, at the key defensive position on the diamond. Of course, they choose Reyes 99% of the time when both are available. What Reyes gives in talent, he takes away in laziness, fear of getting hurt, and a basic lack of baseball instinct.

My point is that whether the Mets had their regular starting lineup, or the lineup they put on the field yesterday, they still would have found a way to lose this game to the Yankees. And this game is the perfect demonstration of why the Mets have not made the playoffs since 2006, and why they fail in the clutch time after time.

© Judy Kamilhor 2009

I Was Wrong About Gary Sheffield

2009-05-31T12:57:00.003-04:00

I need to admit I was very wrong about the Mets' decision to acquire Gary Sheffield. I was wrong in thinking he was done, and I was wrong about his effect on the clubhouse. He seems to have become an ideal veteran teammate, if he wasn't all along.

The reports of his outspokenness convinced me he was trouble, and the stories of his immaturity early in his career colored my opinion about him. I don't know how long he can continue his hot hitting, but I am not worried about him hurting the team's chemistry. Now that Daniel Murphy is playing first base, I'm not concerned with Sheffield taking away playing time from him. Now that Ryan Church is on the DL, Sheffield can't take away his at bats either.

Delgado's injury opened the door for Sheffield to become an every day player again, and so far so great. The trick from now on will be to give Sheffield enough rest to remain sharp. He is older, and does seem to need periodic rest, which Jerry Manuel seems to recognize.

I still say that the best thing the Mets can do is to trade Jose Reyes (plus Toronto's choice of Redding or Oliver Perez plus half his salary) for Roy Halliday (and Marco Scutaro). The one thing the Mets need more than anything is another ace, one that is a proven winner with a tough mentality and someone to lift his teammates to a higher level of production. I believe that Roy Halliday is that pitcher. Clearly, the Mets have shown that they can win without Jose Reyes. They are a more fundamentally sound team and a grittier team without him. Once Alex Cora returns, I would feel comfortable with Cora and Scutaro sharing the shortstop position.

They don't need to upgrade on Tim Redding with another fifth starter, as some baseball writers are suggesting. They need to upgrade on Oliver Perez as their number two starter, with a second ace. Since they can't photocopy Johan Santana, trading for Roy Halliday is the next best thing.

And I'm really pleased Omar Minaya traded Castro instead of demoting Omir Santos. That bodes well. Santos is clearly at his best right now, and sending him down would make absolutely no sense. Between him and Brian Schneider, the Mets have two starting catchers who work well with their pitchers. They still have Robinson Cancel for depth in Buffalo, so catching becomes a relative strong point for the first time in several years.

Caroms Off the Wall

I want to see more of Wilson Valdez, the new shortstop who sounds like an oil spill. He already showed some good instinct when he decoyed a baserunner into hesitating at second on a hit and run base hit, and not scoring.

© Judy Kamilhor 2009

Thank the baseball gods for Nolan Ryan

2009-05-29T09:52:00.001-04:00

Here's the best news about baseball I've seen in a while. Nolan Ryan is transforming the Texas Rangers into the kind of team I want to see, with starting pitchers pitching deeper into games, and staying healthy. I hope it succeeds, so all the other teams will be forced to follow suit.

Go Rangers!

copyright Judy Kamilhor 2009

Gritty and Pretty, Part One

2009-05-25T10:37:00.002-04:00

Just when I counted the Mets out for the season, they shocked me by winning two of three in Fenway Park. I expected them to win one game at the most, and only because Johan Santana was pitching the first game Friday night.

Saturday's game was one of those delicious baseball games that I thought Boston had about a 99% chance of winning, and yet, in the most stunning of 9th innings you will ever see, the Mets scored two runs on a disputed homerun by my new favorite, rookie catcher Omir Santos, off one of the most dominant closers in the world, the Irish Jig master himself, Jonathan Papelbon.

The bottom of the ninth was almost as amazing as the Mets' infield defense channeled their 1999 version and made one great play after another to preserve the victory for substitute closer J. J. Putz, who weirdly throws the ball five miles per hour faster when the scoreboard says it's the 9th inning rather than the 8th. (Can't the CitiField scoreboard operators just pretend it's the 9th inning whenever this guy pitches?)

I've been saying for years that the Mets have a lot of talent, but they lack the killer instinct necessary to be a championship team. Several years ago I came up with a list of psychological skills a team or an individual needs to be a winner in professional baseball (or other sports):

1. handling adversity
2. maintaining success/killer instinct
3. handling pressure (of the situation or the setting, such as New York)
4. seizing opportunity/handling expectations and hype

This year, I realize there is one crucial mental skill that is needed in order to win:

5. baseball instinct

The Mets have been handling adversity quite well the past few days, as almost half the team is injured to some degree or another, including most of their big stars, Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, Francisco Rodriguez, J. J. Putz, and several of their important role players, Alex Cora, Oliver Perez, and Brian Schneider.

Their ability to maintain success is generally weak, often following up a hot streak with a streak of dreadful play that causes the fans to question the team's toughness. They have been one of the streakiest teams the past few years, although it seems that this year every team is going through a series of alternating extreme hot and extreme cold streaks that stand out for being so unexpected. The Red Sox, Marlins, Orioles, and Padres are a few teams that have been particularly volatile.

Handling pressure is something the Mets struggle with. The pressure of living up to Johan Santana's greatness usually causes the team to make too many mental and physical mistakes whenever he pitches. His last start on Friday, it seemed like Santana simply decided that he was going to win no matter what his teammates did. The Mets' broadcasters made the same point during the series, and it rang true. Maybe the team can rise above that specific pressure from now on. Unfortunately, the general New York fan/media pressure seems to defeat the team as often as their opponents.

As for seizing opportunity, well, Omir Santos has totally demonstrated that ability. If the Mets send him down when Schneider comes back from the disabled list, then the Mets really don't deserve to win this year. Omir Santos has shown me that he is the best all-around catcher of the three. If I were the GM, I would look to trade either Castro or Schneider, and keep Santos as the starter. I know that won't happen because contracts and reputation are overvalued and performance is somehow undervalued in today's baseball economics.

Santos is one of the few gritty, intense players, and they need his energy. The Mets have too many pretty players (Beltran and Reyes above all), and not enough gritty players (Santana, Santos, Cora). They have a few players who have the potential to be gritty players but aren't quite there yet, for various reasons.

David Wright seems to be evolving into a gritty leader, but it is a long process. Ryan Church seemed like the kind of guy who would run through a wall to make a catch, but between all the concussions and his weird relationship with Jerry Manuel, his grittiness seems to be evaporating this year. I don't expect him to last the year with the Mets, as it seems like he has some kind of mental obstacle that he needs to overcome, and New York might not be the place to do that kind of deep growth work. He has struggled with overcoming adversity, maintaining success, and seizing opportunity in the past two years, and missing third base the other night is a clear example of missing baseball instinct or even self-sabotage.

Daniel Murphy is a gritty player with (usually) good baseball instinct that is struggling mightily this year with the heightened expectations of the team and the fans. I think he will be fine; I'm glad he's at first base, where he belongs. He reminds me of John Maine in that they both put extra pressure on themselves to be perfect, and it hurts them more than it helps. Perfectionism doesn't work in baseball, or in anything else for that matter. Murphy and Maine need to learn to relax and just play within their talents. They are both very talented young players, and should have successful careers with the right coaching and support from teammates and, dare I say, fans.

Delgado and Castillo have been disappointing more for a lack of leadership than for anything they have done on the field this year. I think they have both struggled in making the New York adjustment. Delgado doesn't seem to like the fans very much, nor the media, or maybe his injuries have kept him from taking an active leadership role. In any event, he is very smart and very talented, and the younger Mets need him to step up when he comes back, or else it's time to consider trading him at the trade deadline and giving Murphy first base for the rest of the year and beyond.

Castillo has played well, but I still get the feeling that he will disappear one way or another when the Mets most need him. With Alex Cora hurt, a Castillo injury would be disastrous unless Tatis can play second base well enough to handle the position for an extended period.

Ramon Martinez had an impressive rebound from his horrible start, at least defensively, which is what they need from him right now. I didn't realize that he was actually still rehabbing from a sports hernia when they abruptly called him up. He has handled adversity remarkably well. They still need Cora back as soon as possible, and off course Reyes needs to be healthy and happy, at least until they trade him for Roy Halladay and Marco Scutaro (in my perfect gritty world).

Caroms Off the Wall

David Ortiz is having the same first half this year as Carlos Delgado had last year. Let's hope his second half is as good as Delgado's was last year. I doubt it, though. There is no way he is only 33 years old, by the way. More like 37.

© Judy Kamilhor 2009

I love Jerry Manuel but . . . .

2009-05-18T17:20:00.002-04:00

Murphy in LF and Jeremy Reed at 1B? Murphy's best position is probably 1B and Reed is only on the team because of his superior defense in the OF. I would have put Sheffield in LF, Murphy at 1B, and Reed in RF. And I would have switched Castillo and Cora in the batting order.

When I saw Cora shaking out his hand on second base after his double, I knew the Mets were in trouble. They have been winning with him playing SS. He's grittier and more a winner than Reyes will ever be.

Jose Reyes reminds me of Alex Rodriguez in that they are the two best examples of physical talent and emotional immaturity/lack of baseball instinct I've ever seen. Not that emotional immaturity and lack of baseball instinct are related in general, but in those two players, it seems unlikely their teams are going to be winning World Championships anytime soon. They make me think of Marbury. I had the feeling when the Knicks picked him up that they weren't going to be winning much while he was their leader.

Emotional immaturity is something you can grow out of, but lack of baseball instinct is another matter. Did you see the incredible play by Joe Mauer yesterday, when he tagged out Brett Gardner at home after a grounder richocheted off the pitcher? He instinctively pump-faked to first, hoping to pick Gardner off third. He had the incredible presence of mind to adjust immediately when he saw that Gardner wasn't going back to third at all, but barreling towards him at full speed. He ran and dove towards home, tagging the runner out to prevent the winning run! Amazing. No-one on the Mets would have been able to do that. That's baseball instinct in a nutshell.

© Judy Kamilhor 2009

Now is the time to trade Reyes

2009-05-16T18:06:00.002-04:00

The Mets look pretty good right now. They are still not a championship caliber team. They are doing the tease they sometimes do, to convince their fans that they have a chance, but I don't buy it.

My solution is the answer to the question that NY sports writers have been asking lately: Yes, it IS time to trade Jose Reyes. For Roy Halliday and Marco Scutaro of the Toronto Blue Jays. It looks like Adam Schein has proposed a Reyes for Halliday trade in the past couple of days, but I had this thought last week. Scutaro is one of those guys that helps teams win, even though he has modest talent. Halliday is exactly what they need, a second ace and a proven winner who deserves a chance to pitch in the post-season. The Mets can offer Toronto a choice of Oliver Perez, Livan Hernandez, or Tim Redding, if they want to replace Halliday in the rotation while waiting for their injured starters to come back.

The point is, and I've had seven years to observe this, Jose Reyes does not, and will never, possess winning baseball instincts. I've played a lot of softball in my life, and I know that you can't teach instinct. Derek Jeter has it; Craig Counsell has it; Jose Reyes doesn't. It's that simple.

The Mets might make the playoffs with their current team. They might choke in the last month like they have the past two years. If they want a real chance to win in the post-season, they need to make this trade or one like it.

If anyone is at fault for the Mets lack of killer instinct, I have to say it's Omar Minaya. He has constructed a very talented team that lacks grit and savvy. It's time to start fixing that problem, Omar. Here's a way to start.

© Judy Kamilhor 2009

Another Baseball Tragedy

2009-04-11T16:19:00.003-04:00

Whenever a baseball player dies, it always hits me hard. This week, 22-year old Nick Adenhart, a rising star pitcher with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, was killed, along with two young friends, in a car accident.

My thoughts are with his family, friends, and the Angels organization.

© Judy Kamilhor 2009

Aaaaaargh!@!?#!

2009-04-05T11:17:00.002-04:00

Well, as far as I'm concerned, the Mets' season is ruined. My two least favorite players are Billy Wagner and Gary Sheffield. Now the Mets have both of them, at least contractually.

If the Mets are smart (which I obviously don't think they are), they will have a trade in place to dump Wagner the second he is able to pitch again. With Sheffield, I sincerely hope they are ready to pull the plug on this stupid experiment sooner rather than later.

40 year old former steroid abusers do not age well under any circumstances, and when you throw in Sheffield's general sour disposition, and extreme arrogance and self-absorption, this experiment can't end well. How many teammates and staff will Sheff throw under the bus before he is booted out of town?

Gary Sheffield should either retire or play in Japan. Or, if this were the NBA, get a ten-day contract to hit his 500th home run and then be released. The greatest harm here is that both Ryan Church and Daniel Murphy will get fewer at bats, and will feel like the organization does not believe in them. This move only makes sense if the National League suddenly announces that the DH will be used starting right now, or if Sheffield is willing to be a pinch hitter exclusively, which I highly doubt.

In any event, I am not going to Citi Field, or buying any Mets' stuff until Sheffield is gone. Wagner I am willing to tolerate, just as long as he keeps his big mouth shut and doesn't actually pitch for the Mets again.

© Judy Kamilhor 2009

Is Daniel Murphy the new David Wright?

2009-03-22T12:11:00.003-04:00

The latest news out of the Mets' camp is that Daniel Murphy will bat 2nd, and Luis Castillo 8th. I like it, at least to start the season, because it balances the lefties and righties, and gives the Mets a much better chance of having a big 1st inning. People have pointed out that you don't need a number two hitter to bunt when you have Jose Reyes on first. I agree. Murphy will get fastballs, and get to hit with the first baseman holding on Reyes a lot of the time. Otherwise, Reyes will be in scoring position or the bases will be clear, most of the rest of the time. All good situations for Murphy with his line drive bat and great eye.

Castillo batting 8th has pros and cons, and even the idea of batting Castillo 9th has been floated, by fans at least. If Castillo bats 8th, he will get on base by single or walk, and the pitcher will get to bunt him over. Castillo has always had a higher on base percentage than Brian Schneider, so that part works well. If Castillo is bunted to 2nd, he has a much better chance to score on a Reyes single than Schneider or Castro.

On the other hand, Castillo has never been able to drive in runs because he can't reach the gaps or get the ball down the line past the corner outfielders. You want your 8th place hitter to be able to get some two out RBIs, and clear the pitcher so Reyes can lead off the next inning. Of course, the Mets have Santana and now Livan Hernandez hitting, and they both hit the ball farther than Castillo, so maybe when those guys start, you drop Castillo to 9th.

Right now, the lineup and defense looks good enough to make the playoffs; the bench looks better than last year, with some depth at Triple A with guys like Sullivan, Kielty, and Cancel. My biggest concern with this team is the starting rotation.

As I predicted a couple of months ago, the Mets did the "safe" thing by returning most of last year's rotation, which wasn't good enough last year and probably won't be this year, either. Tim Redding and Freddy Garcia look like busts, and Livan Hernandez is a nice 5th starter, but what if one of the top four gets hurt or loses his effectiveness? Jon Niese might end up being the guy to save or sink the playoff hopes, like Pedro was last year. We know how that worked out, but I like Niese and think he has a good future. There's also Bobby Parnell, who seems to be passing Niese as the most major-league ready pitching prospect. He will probably start in the bullpen, but could be brought into the rotation if one of the others falters.

I do hope the Mets don't resign Pedro Martinez. I've said it before, but it bears repeating: you don't want to be the team to have to tell Pedro he's done. He should probably retire, but if someone takes a chance on him, he'll be out there until he breaks down again. A sad end to one of the most glorious careers of all-time. I wish him well, but not at Citi Field.

Caroms off the wall

Nick Evans offers more than Marlon Anderson right now. Nick Evans is probably better than Fernando Tatis right now. I would offer Marlon Anderson a minor league managerial job (Brooklyn?) and keep Evans. I would shop Tatis to the teams that lost their thirdbasemen, the Astros and Yankees, and see if I could get a top prospect or useful lefty reliever for him.

More Mets

2009-01-18T15:54:00.003-05:00

For the Mets now, the obvious solution to their starting pitching problem would be to sign Oliver Perez for a few years and a lot of money. And to me, all that would accomplish is basically bringing back the exact same rotation from last year, except Tim Redding replaces Pedro Martinez.

And as we all saw, last year's pitching wasn't good enough to make the playoffs. It wasn't just the bullpen that hurt them. Other than Santana, the starters faded down the stretch, from injury (Maine), to fatigue (Pelfrey?), to loss of focus (Perez), and inexperience (Niese). If it weren't for Santana, the Mets would have been out of it long before the last weekend of the season, so I believe the Mets need to upgrade the rotation, not bring it back.

I would suggest something along the lines of signing several high-risk, high-reward guys, and let them fight it out. Guys like Mulder, Sheets, and Freddy Garcia would give the Mets a chance to upgrade, without costing a fortune. For Sheets, a short-term, incentive-laden contract would make sense. Mulder and Garcia might be willing to sign minor league deals, and work their way back in AAA if they are not ready to go in April, as long as they know they have a good chance to join the rotation when they are ready.

There seems to be a new phenomenon in baseball: the second half starter. Roger Clemens is probably the most notable example, but it seems that some older pitchers and those rehabbing from injuries are aiming towards being ready in June or July, when teams will surely be needing rotation support. It reminds me of the former hockey star, Glenn Anderson, who did the same thing late in his career.

To avoid resentment from teammates, it's better for these guys to sign contracts before the season starts, and spend the time rehabbing, rather than taking the Paul Byrd approach, and announcing that you are available to sign a deal mid-season.

For the Red Sox, having a guy like John Smoltz ready to join the rotation a month or two into the season, and possibly be fresher for the pennant race and post-season, makes a lot of sense. Curt Schilling might be willing to do something like that this year, as well, and despite his big mouth, he could help a team like the Mets get over the hump in September.

Caroms off the wall

Congratulations to Rickey Henderson and Jim Rice on getting into the Hall of Fame. I'd like to see Andre Dawson join them sooner rather than later.

© Judy Kamilhor 2009

Follow up to previous post

2009-01-11T13:03:00.002-05:00

Trade Brian Schneider and a pitching prospect (Eddie Kunz?) to the Red Sox for Justin Masterson or trade Schneider even up for lefty reliever Javier Lopez.
Sign Brad Ausmus.

© Judy Kamilhor 2009

Let's Go Mets, Let's Go, Already

2009-01-10T14:11:00.003-05:00

Mets should:

trade Evans, Parnell, Delgado, Castillo to Angels for Chone Figgins and Scot Shields
sign Manny Ramirez for 1 year $30 million
sign Orlando Hudson to a back-loaded 4 year deal: 2009 $5 mil, 2010 $10 mil, 2011 $10 mil, 2012 $10 mil.
sign Lowe to 3 year deal: 2009 $16 mil, 2010 $14, 2011 $12, vesting 4th year option $12 mil
trade Brian Schneider for a decent lefty reliever
And get a younger, defensive specialist catcher to split time with Castro (I read Adam Rubin's article on the results of Mets' pitchers with Schneider and Castro catching last year.)

lineup:

Reyes SS
Hudson 2B
Ramirez LF
Beltran CF
Wright 3B
Murphy 1B
Church RF
??/Castro C

bench: Figgins IF/OF
Tatis OF, 3B, 1B
Castro/?? C
Reed OF
Pagan OF

Santana
Lowe
Maine
Pelfrey
Redding/Niese/Parnell

F. Rodriguez
Putz
Shields
Green
Feliciano
Sanchez
Another lefty

The big trade proposal with the Angels makes sense because the only way to get rid of a contract like Castillo's is to entice the other team with something(s) they need. The Angels need a bat like Delgado in a big way, and the two prospects make up for the ages of Delgado and Castillo. Figgins and Shields are valuable, but the Angels can spare them, since it will vastly improve the offense for this year, and give them two young guys for the future. Plus, the Angels are one of the few teams that has some money to spend right now.

The Rubin piece on Schneider is mind-bending, and even if the effect is exaggerated, why take a chance on repeating those numbers? Schneider's whole value is his supposed positive effect on pitchers, so if there's even a chance that he is actually hurting them, for whatever reason, there's no point in keeping him.

Now that the Mets have signed Redding, it's time to go all-out for Lowe. I really don't care if they overspend a little on him. If he goes to the Braves and the Mets end up with Ollie or someone worse, it means that the pitching isn't much better than last year's disaster. That would put a lot of pressure on Putz to return to his dominant form, and on Maine and Pelfrey to improve from last year. And, God forbid, one of their top starters get hurt . . . .

I don't miss Steve Phillips as GM very often, but he was excellent at coming up with creative ways to get rid of bad contracts. That's the challenge for Omar Minaya right now, to get Orlando Hudson in at second, and upgrade from Delgado to Manny for a short-term investment. By 2010, Fernando Martinez will take over LF, and by then, Daniel Murphy should be getting closer to his prime, which I see as all-star level, consistent offensive production, along the lines of John Olerud or Keith Hernandez, unfortunately without the superb defense of those two guys.

Caroms Off the Wall

The Red Sox are doing this offseason in a brilliant way. They are taking low cost risks for potentially high reward players like Smoltz, Saito, Baldelli, and Penny. The Yankees have spent a lot more money, but at the end of the year, I still like Boston's chances to make the playoffs, now and for the forseeable future. The guy the Mets really need is Theo Epstein.

© Judy Kamilhor 2009

I want to wake up tomorrow with Lowe and Hudson under the tree

2008-12-24T13:18:00.002-05:00

Of the remaining moves the Mets should make, I prefer Derek Lowe over Oliver Perez, and Orlando Hudson over Manny Ramirez. However, I would certainly rather have Oliver Perez and Manny Ramirez than nothing.

I'd also like to see the Mets sign Tim Redding and maybe take a chance on one or two of the rehabbing pitchers like Mark Mulder or Takaishi Saito, with a minor league contract with lots of playing time bonuses. After all, you can never have enough starters or closers.

There is still a need for one or two lefty relievers, perhaps Will Ohman or Joe Beimel.

I am hoping that Pedro Martinez realizes that it's time to retire. It was painful to watch him last year, and he is hurting his legacy by hanging on too long. He's one of the best pitchers of all-time, and should start the Hall of Fame clock right now.

Happy Holidays to all my loyal readers!

© Judy Kamilhor 2008

Relief At Last

2008-12-14T15:17:00.003-05:00

Well, the Mets did not follow my blueprint for 2009, but I'm not upset. What they have done instead is to blow up the bullpen and turn it into a monster pen. I really like the moves to get K-Rod and Putz (which sounds like a radio show). The best part of these acquisitions (in addition to getting rid of a couple of guys that the fans had turned on viciously, and unfairly) is that it allows Jerry Manuel to use one closer at the most critical point in the game, and another closer for the 9th inning.

I am one of those people who believe that the way closers are commonly used is not the most effective way to win the most games. My philosophy is that the turning point of most games occurs in the 6th-8th inning, and that is where I want my most dominant reliever. I want my best guys to pitch when the game is tied or within one run either way. I don't want my best guys pitching just the 9th inning, and often with a three (or even more) run lead.

Of course, Manuel will probably do what most managers would do: use Putz for the 8th inning with a one, two, or three run lead, and then use Rodriguez for the 9th if it's still close.

What I would do if I were the manager is this: Put in Putz in the 7th with a tie score, or a one or two run lead and let him pitch two innings, and then use K-Rod. If the Mets are trailing by one in the 8th, I would also use Putz to keep it close, and give the Mets a great chance to tie it up or go ahead. If the Mets have a larger lead (3+ runs) in the 7th, I would put in Putz as soon as the tying run comes to bat. I would ask K-Rod to get 4 outs once in a while if Putz has thrown a lot of pitches in the 7th and 8th.

When the game is tied, or the Mets are trailing by one or leading by one or two, I want Putz and Rodriguez in the game whenever possible. I want my starter to pitch into the 7th or beyond as often as possible, and skip the middle relievers in the really close games.

I hope the Mets keep Feliciano and use him as more than a lefty specialist. He is capable of pitching multiple innings, and he can get out righties better than most lefty specialists. I trust him in pressure situations, and would use him to protect 3+ run leads in the 8th or 9th inning, especially if one or more tough left handed batters are due up. I would use Brian Stokes in a similar way. Sean Green may be able to contribute in these situations as well, so I would try him early in the season and see how he handles it.

The key change I would make is to reprogram relievers to learn how to pitch whenever they are called on, regardless of "role" or expectation. Let the manager decide how to best give the team a chance to win. The starters are not the only pitchers that have been babied, and it has hurt the game immensely. A manager that is willing to do it in a more innovative way will be rewarded with success. I hope Jerry Manuel is one of those managers this year.

© Judy Kamilhor 2008

Beginnings and Endings

2008-11-17T13:34:00.002-05:00

It's that time of the year again; time to fix the broken parts. Addition by subtraction, addition by addition, multiplication, and winning the division. Should the Mets get a closer first and then a starter, or do it the baseball way, starting with starting and ending with ending?

I like the idea of signing Kerry Wood to a two year contract, and then getting Derek Lowe for three years. I'm okay with Oliver Perez and Pedro Martinez leaving, and with all the other free agents going away as well. Trading the whole bullpen except Joe Smith and Brian Stokes works for me. Making sure Billy Wagner never wears a Met uniform again, I'm all for it.

Trade Luis Castillo or release him. Please sign Orlando Hudson for whatever it takes. Keep the catchers and try to trade for a "catcher of the future." Keep Ryan Church if he wants to be here. Play Daniel Murphy every day.

With the advantage of a full year with Jerry Manuel, this team would have a good chance to make the playoffs:

Johan Santana
John Maine
Derek Lowe
Mike Pelfrey
Jon Niese

Wood CL
Smith
Stokes
Anonymous Lefty #1
Anonymous Lefty #2
Anonymous Righty #1
Eddie Kunz or Bobby Parnell

1 Jose Reyes SS
2 Daniel Murphy LF
3 David Wright 3B
4 Carlos Beltran CF
5 Carlos Delgado 1B
6 Orlando Hudson 2B
7 Ryan Church RF
8 Brian Schneider/Ramon Castro/Catcher of the Day C

bench: Argenis Reyes IF
Nick Evans UT
Endy Chavez OF
Fernando Tatis Spiritual Leader and Utility player
Catcher of the day (keep 3 catchers to let Castro PH and stay fresher longer)

Assuming they can get some decent relievers on the cheap, this team should be good enough to win, as long as they can get over the psychological scars of the past couple of years.

And my one crazy idea: give Brad Holt a shot at closing if they can't sign or acquire a proven guy. If the Mets have a Joba in the woods, it's Holt. Closing doesn't require as much minor league seasoning as starting does, and if anyone can make the leap from A ball, it's this gem.

Let's go Mets!

© Judy Kamilhor 2008

My Worlds Collide, But in a Good Way

2008-11-17T13:15:00.004-05:00

While we're waiting to find out how each MLB team will redesign itself for the 2009 season, there is news from across the Pacific that reminds me of an old dream. A Japanese schoolgirl has been drafted by a Japanese professional team.

Maybe some day my dream will come true, and a woman will play in the major leagues in North America. Until then, good luck to Eri Yoshida on her journey to make history.

© Judy Kamilhor 2008

2008-09-13T13:08:00.002-04:00

Here we go. Because of rain outs, this weekend, the Phillies and the Mets each play three games, as do the Red Sox, Rays, Yankees, and Blue Jays. In other words, the NL and AL Eastern Divisions will move closer to their final standings in a great big hurry. And the Phillies are playing the Brewers, so the NL Wild Card will be greatly influenced as well.

Right now, it looks like the division races will go down to the last few games. I think the Mets will hold on, and that the Red Sox will squeak past the Rays. It looks like Toronto will edge out the Yankees for third place, not that too many people care. I think Minnesota has a good chance to pass the White Sox, and it looks like Joe Torre is a genius after all.

The Astros are playing the role of last year's Rockies, something they have done recently themselves under Phil Garner, and will press the Brewers until the last weekend. There is another case where the manager is key; Cecil Cooper deserves a lot of credit, and I have to wonder why Ned Yost still has a job. I think the Brewers will hold on, but just by a thread.

As for individual players, the news about Aaron Heilman pitching all year with a knee injury makes me angry. Why do players think that they are helping their team by not admitting the injury and getting it taken care of right away? Wouldn't the Mets be better off now if Heilman had been put on the DL and gotten surgery or rest, and be 100 percent healthy for the pennant race? Now, he is probably done for the year, and they got virtually nothing good from him all year.

With all the babying of pitchers that goes on these days, this kind of "toughness" is totally counterproductive. And speaking of babying pitchers, is Mike Pelfrey suffering from overuse, or simply fear that his arm is going to fall off if he throws too many pitches this year? With the advances in sports medicine, and the improved size, strength, and conditioning of today's players, how come they are treated like porcelain dolls?

If Tom Seaver and Bob Gibson could pitch eight or nine innings every fourth day for years, how come a huge guy like Mike Pelfrey, in his physical prime, shouldn't be expected to pitch 200 innings a year?

There have been a tremendous number of pitching injuries that past few years. There's no questioning that. However, a lot of pitching injuries in the past few years have probably been caused by steroids (since the tendons and ligaments get weakened by steroids, and then have to support increased muscle mass and harder workouts).

And I think a lot of injuries have been caused by fear of injury. Once you plant the idea that pitchers are so fragile, it sinks into the subconscious and affects the way a pitcher does his job, and the way he is treated. Of course, we'll never really be able to test this, but I'd love to see some team try.

How about taking one minor league team in an organization and trying some different methods of developing pitchers, such as using a four man rotation, or building up pitch counts so that pitchers are pitching much deeper into games?

Baseball needs to change the mindset that it's acceptable for a starter to pitch five or six innings a game, and that four or five relievers are needed to finish each game. With the shortage of quality arms, this is the exact opposite of a winning approach. When the White Sox won the World Series in 2005, their starters were completing games left and right in the playoffs. It was great to see.

Of course, most of those guys suffered the next year, but that's as likely to be due to the sudden change in use, rather than any inherent inability to pitch that many innings. What baseball needs is the anti-Tony LaRussa, someone who is willing to experiment with the way pitchers are used, and come up with some new approaches.

There is too much specialization, and not enough good pitchers who can succeed in any situation. The only pitchers who can thrive no matter what are the ace starters and the top few closers, and even then, you have oddities like Mariano Rivera blowing so many tie games this year, because he is conditioned to thrive only with a small lead.

I suppose it's all part of the "designated-hitterization" of baseball, where being good at only one thing is rewarded handsomely. The real beauty of baseball has always been that good players had to be good at everything: hitting, fielding, base running, and whatever needed to be done. Even pitchers used to contribute with the bat, at least by bunting well when asked.

Oh well, maybe I'm just too much of a traditionalist to fully appreciate the way baseball has changed the past few decades, but I still love a good pennant race, and this year we have some great races.

Caroms off the wall

Billy Wagner is done, and I for one am okay with it. I just wish he would shut up and go recover somewhere far, far away. I couldn't see the Mets going very far in the post-season with even a healthy Wagner closing games. The Mets need to pull an Adam Wainwright to go all the way, but it's been done before. Joe Nathan would look great in blue and orange next year.
© Judy Kamilhor 2008

Labor Day Observations

2008-08-30T13:02:00.015-04:00

I never thought I would say this, but I almost feel sorry for Alex Rodriguez. Here is an interesting set of statistics (RISP=running in scoring position):

RISP w/2 Outs: AB Hits RBI Ave. bbOBA SLG OPS

Alex Rodriguez 53 13 18 .245 .452 .415 .867

David Wright b 66 15 26 .227 .363 .409 .772

In Flushing, David Wright is a MVP candidate, beloved by the fans, and a perennial All-Star third baseman. Over in the Bronx, Alex Rodriguez is also a perennial All-Star third baseman, but is constantly booed, and is the face of the "underachieving" Yankees.

Rodriguez, like Wright, is struggling in clutch situations, but his extremely high on base average also indicates that pitchers aren't giving him anything to hit. If he ever becomes willing to take the walks in those situations, his numbers, and his teams', will improve.

Season: bb AB Hits RBI Ave. OBA SLG OPS

Alex Rodriguez 423 130 79 .307 .395 .579 .974

David Wright b 520 152 100 .292 .385 .515 .900

I have been watching David Wright the past few days in clutch situations, and he really seems to be pressing, just like ARod. Wright's excellent behavior and relatively low salary give him a pass from the criticism that ARod has to deal with all the time. Poor, poor, rich ARod. Maybe he can find solace in the Kabbalah.

Right now, David Wright is more clutch defensively than offensively. He is playing an exceptional third base these days, and deserves another Gold Glove (more than the one he got last year).

As for the Mets, the obvious team and maybe NL MVP is Carlos Delgado. Another sentence I can't believe I'm writing! I've never seen a turnaround like his, in all my baseball watching life. And it is another reminder that baseball is not about brute strength, because Delgado was hitting some monster homeruns even while he was struggling terribly.

No, baseball is about timing, agility, balance, and confidence, as much as strength and speed. Delgado somehow found his happy zone, in spite of half of New York (including me, unfortunately) wanting him out of town on the next subway. Truly Amazin'!

As the season reaches its final month, the big questions are:

Can the Red Sox catch some Rays with an injured Josh Beckett, J. D. Drew, Julio Lugo, and Sean Casey? I say yes, but just barely.

Can the Mets stay gritty enough to hold off the Phillies? Can Jon Niese help?

Can the Rockies make another miracle run? They are only six games behind Arizona, with a whole month to play.

Who will end up on top in the crazy AL Central, White Sox or Twins? If it's the Twins, Ron Gardenhire should get the Manager of the Year award in addition to Joe Maddon.

Caroms off the wall

If the Cubs do end up meeting the Los Angeles de Anaheim in the World Series, it would be fitting. The Cubs will need to defeat the representatives of the heavens to end their curse! And it is odd that the Rays are doing so well now that they have lost the Devils from their name. As usual, the baseball gods are rolling down heavenly hills, laughing their heads off.

Everything That Rises Must Diverge

2008-08-16T20:03:00.004-04:00

The Yankees are finally having the kind of season I've expected since they beat the Mets in the 2000 Subway Series. And their timing is bad, since Tampa Bay is having the kind of season that no one has ever expected of them, at least in this decade.

More surprising than the Yankees' poor play, however, is the concession speech by Hank Steinbrenner. I couldn't believe that anyone connected with the Yankees, let alone a Steinbrenner, would ever give up on a season in August.

If I had to speculate on why it is happening now, there are two obvious answers. One is that they tried to rebuild the pitching staff on the fly, with very little margin for error.

The other is that the baseball gods are really pissed that there will be a replacement Yankee Stadium next year. The costs are skyrocketing, and it seems like the new building is already cursed, and is emanating invisible noxious fumes that are weakening Aura and Mystique and ARod and Jete.

It will be really interesting to see how they play the rest of the way, and today's extra inning win is certainly a good sign that the players haven't given up. Looking at their lineup and pitching, though, they really aren't a playoff caliber team right now, and Carl Pavano certainly isn't the answer.

Moving on to Mets, who are finally ten games over .500, I have to say that I am impressed by Jerry Manuel. The Mets should remove the interim tag and sign him to a three year extension as soon as possible. Even if the Mets end up losing the division again, I have to say it won't be the fault of the new manager.

I am excited, too, about the young guys--Daniel Murphy, Argenis Reyes (not so young), Nick Evans, and soon, Jon Niese--and am really glad the Mets didn't give up more prospects to get another aging star. That strategy doesn't work anymore, and if the Mets acquired someone like Gary Sheffield, I'd have a hard time rooting for him.

Once (if) Ryan Church comes back healthy, the Mets look to be in very good shape as far as offense and defense are concerned. The pitching is obviously the key, but even with all the problems they have had, especially in the bullpen, the Mets' pitching is still better than everyone else in the NL East top to bottom.

The thing about this season is, unfortunately, is that it looks like the Cubs and Brewers are the class of the league, and even if the Mets make the playoffs, I doubt very much that they will win more than one series. But that's the beauty of baseball, isn't it? You never know until you know.

Caroms Off the Wall

Boston and Los Angeles de Anaheim look like the two best teams in the AL, again, and I expect them to meet in the ALCS. Tampa Bay will hang on, but come back to the pack a bit, and I think Boston will squeak past them now that Longoria and Crawford are out. Not even a great team can withstand the loss of their two best all-around players for any major length of time, and the Rays aren't quite a great team yet.

Who in the world would have expected that Oliver Perez and Mike Pelfrey would be the Mets' most reliable and winning starters? Not me, that's for sure. I really hope Santana wins about eight starts in a row to make up for the team's miserable performance behind him. I wonder if there isn't some resentment and even jealousy going on behind the scenes?

© Judy Kamilhor 2008

Addition By Subtraction for the BoSox

2008-08-03T20:11:00.004-04:00

All the Yankee fans that I work with were thrilled to hear that Manny Ramirez was no longer on the Red Sox. He's a Yankee-killer, and they figured the Red Sox would be worse off without him. But baseball is a psychological game as well as a physical one, and in this case, the Red Sox should do better on the field now that Jason Bay is in LF and Manny is in LA.

The Red Sox are unsentimental, but they know how to run a business. Their GM, Theo Epstein, took a poll of his players, and they agreed, almost unanimously, that Manny must go to return the harmony to their clubhouse. Yes, they gave up a couple of decent prospects and a lot of money, and didn't get "equal" value in return, but they got something much better: peace of mind.

Jason Bay is almost as good as Manny right now, and could even be better by next year. Better yet, he doesn't cause trouble and he's Canadian. His dad is a huge Red Sox fan, which can't hurt, and he has another year on his contract for an incredibly reasonable $7.5 million. Which means that the Red Sox will have all kinds of money to spend to upgrade as needed. Although really, they don't need much, maybe a reliever or too.

The Red Sox are still one of the few top teams in the major leagues, and I expect them to win the AL East, and play the Angels in the ALCS. The Angels look like the best team in baseball, like in 2002, but their last two losses to the Yankees make me wonder a bit.

The wild card in the AL will still come down to whether Tampa Bay learns how to win on the road, especially in Boston and NY. My guess is that the Rays will just hold off the Yankees to make their first playoff appearance ever, and will lose to Los Angeles de Anaheim in the ALDS. The Red Sox will beat the Twins in the other ALDS.

The National League is more intriguing, because only the Cubs seem to really have a good shot at maintaining their lead. No one in the NL East is any good, and it almost doesn't matter who wins, because they have no chance to advance. It really looks like the Cubs will get to the World Series for a shot at an every-hundred-years championship.

I keep expecting the Diamond Backs to pull away, but they are not playing very well. I think they regret trading their closer, Valverde. Now that they have sent Micah Owings down to the minors, maybe they should make him a two-way player. He's still their best hitter, and they could use him more at the plate than on the mound.

As for the Mets, I will repeat what I have said before: they will never win the World Series with Billy Wagner as their closer. He is a smaller, left-handed version of Armando Benitez, with a big mouth. That ten game winning streak almost fooled me, but they didn't quite get to ten games over .500, which is what I was looking for as the sign that they are a legitimate contender. Now they are only five games over, and John Maine is on the DL.

It's time to see what the young guys (Murphy, Kunz, Niese, even Fernando Martinez) can do. In the past, that would have meant conceding this year, but now, bringing up your top prospects is the best way to win right now.

Caroms off the wall

Fernando Tatis is playing almost exactly as well as Moises Alou would have, and provides the same calm confident leadership as well. I call him Little Buddha. What a brilliant move by Omar Minaya! Unfortunately, there were too many bad moves in the off-season--like Luis Castillo's four-year deal, and relying too much on Pedro Martinez and Orlando Hernandez--which weighed the team down with too many older, unproductive/unhealthy players.

© Judy Kamilhor 2008

When I'm wrong, I'm really wrong

2008-07-12T18:53:00.002-04:00

The Mets have won eight games in a row for the first time since June, 2006. Right after I said here that their season was over. Boy, was I wrong! And I'm glad to say it. I should have known better than to make any kind of definitive statement about this team, this year. They are the epitome of unpredictable.

I caught them at the bottom and forgot that when someone (or some group of someones) hits bottom, it can only mean that they have nowhere to go but up. A lesser team would have given up at that point, but maybe Jerry Manuel really is the right guy to lead this talented group to playing consistently good baseball, the way they did for most of 2006.

There are lots of good signs, the main one being the play of the bench and the bullpen. One way to judge a manager is to look at the statistics of the bench players. On a team that plays together for a common goal, the bench usually contributes significantly to the team's success. On a team that has quit on the manager, usually the bench players play poorly, and have a negative attitude about their situation.

Manuel seems to be doing a better job getting contributions from the bench than Willie Randolph did this year. I attribute most of this to his calm demeanor and honesty. At least for now, the players seem to believe in their leaders and themselves. All the adversity from last year and the first half of this year will serve them well, as they have proven to themselves that they can overcome obstacles.

If Pedro Martinez can get over his shoulder issue and continue his resurgence, the Mets have a very good chance to make the playoffs. Even if he doesn't, they still could do okay, given that the Phillies are really struggling, and the National League is so weak that it won't take all that much to succeed.

Another outfielder would be nice, as long as they don't have to give up one of their few remaining prospects. Angel Pagan and Ryan Church should be back soon; Luis Castillo has become irrelevant, and perhaps trade bait when he comes back. The Mets have enough talent to win, and now that they have discovered some grit and killer instinct, who knows what they can accomplish?

© Judy Kamilhor 2008

Sad July and Quiet October in NYC?

2008-07-05T12:09:00.003-04:00

There's not much to say, except it's getting late early around here.

What would Yogi do? He'd say it's over for New York baseball teams making the playoffs.

Go Rays!

© Judy Kamilhor 2008

Glimmer of Hope

2008-06-22T10:53:00.003-04:00

So far, the Mets have the same kind of mediocre record (2-2) under Jerry Manuel that they had under fired manager Willie Randolph for the past calendar year. And I have to say, that at the time of the firing, I really didn't think that a managerial change was going to get the team into the playoffs, because the problems go much deeper than Willie Randolph's managing.

There have been enough good signs this week, however, to suggest that the Mets may get it together in time to make the playoffs this year, as most experts expected before the season started.

I like Jerry Manuel. His intelligence and vision give him a chance to get the players' respect, and get them to play together for a common goal. He seems much more comfortable than Randolph ever did as manager, and he is not afraid to make changes and hold people accountable.

The incident with Jose Reyes in the first inning of Manual's first game as manager of the Mets was a gift for the team, and may serve to get Reyes moving in the right direction. I've said it many times, in many ways, but Jose Reyes needs to go from being a supremely talented player to a winning player. It may never happen, because Reyes does not seem to possess enough baseball instinct (compared to Derek Jeter, who always seems to be in the right place at the right time). Randolph seemed unable to get through to Reyes, but Manual may have more success here, which is one of the most important changes that needs to be made for the Mets to succeed as a team.

The acquisition of Trot Nixon was a good move, since he is the kind of player they need more of. Hard-nosed and a winner, one who leads by example, not by shooting his mouth off. This only works, of course, if Nixon has some productivity left. That remains to be seen.

Speaking of wondering whether someone has some productivity left, Carlos Delgado's bat looks much better in the past couple of weeks. He looks more balanced, and is taking better swings at more suitable pitches. Maybe he finally made those adjustments everyone has been talking about. That would be great, but he still may end up as a .250 hitter with 20 home runs, not very good for a first baseman with poor defensive skills.

Now is the time for Omar Minaya to prove that he deserves to keep his job. His first task should be to get Tony Bernazard out of the organization, at least if all the reports of his playing politics to get rid of Randolph are accurate. The last thing the Mets need is to split into two camps, like the Yankees did a few years ago. Brian Cashman did a great job bringing his team back together, and Minaya needs to do the same thing now.

Bringing in Wayne Krivsky was a good move. He made some great trades with the Reds, and may be able to help Minaya retool this team for a pennant race. The need is for youth and athleticism/health/energy, not overpriced, over-the-hill veterans. In other words, the Mets need to act more like the Oakland A's, and less like themselves.

Some day I would love to see the list of players who failed amphetamines tests, and the dates of the failed tests. I think the weaning off of speed is having a huge impact on players' performances, and the fans have no way to know what is happening in this area. The whole idea that the first failed test is not reported is one of the silliest things I've ever heard of. This is not a recreational drug issue; it is a cheating issue. Cheaters don't need rehab; they need deterrence.

Caroms Off the Wall

What if Pedro Martinez is done? It seems clear to me that Orlando Hernandez and Jose Valentin are finished, but the Mets are still counting on Pedro to contribute to winning this year. He has been very erratic, in addition to being ridiculously injury-prone, all year, and if he doesn't get it going, they may have to consider replacing him in the rotation. With the unpredictable Oliver Perez and Mike Pelfrey already in the rotation, the Mets desperately need another reliable and effective starter to go along with John Maine and Johan Santana. Signing Freddy Garcia would be a good move to increase their options for the last third of the season, but they may need another young starter right now. Bronson Arroyo comes to mind.

© Judy Kamilhor 2008

Post Memorial Day Reality Check

2008-05-31T11:45:00.002-04:00

The baseball season is about one third complete, and it's a good time to assess what has happened so far, and look towards the future. The biggest surprises so far are still the Marlins and the Cardinals on the overachieving side, and the Indians, Tigers, Mets, Mariners, Rockies on the underachieving side. I am surprised the Royals are playing so poorly, and that the Reds aren't doing a little better, but maybe these teams need another year to make the transition to competitive young teams under new managers. I'm not surprised at how well the Rays are playing, and I still think they have a decent chance to make the playoffs as the wild card.

In the National League, it looks like the Phillies are once again getting more out of their talent than the Mets are. The Braves are a little worse than I expected, but are certainly in a good enough position to make a playoff push. The Marlins will drop down to 4th place or even 5th most likely, but you have to give Fredi Gonzalez a lot of credit for keeping them over .500 for so long.

The Cubs and Diamondbacks still look like locks for their division championships, with less competition than expected. The wild card will probably come from the East, and the question will be whether the Mets can make themselves relevant again, or will the Braves and Phillies battle it out for the two playoff spots.

The Mets are a .500 team until they prove otherwise. This has been going on for a year now, so it's no longer a slump or a collapse, it's who they are. A popular benchmark of competitiveness is to get to 10 games over .500, so if and when the Mets get to that point, I might consider them a contender this year. The way I see it, big changes need to be made before that will happen.

If I were running the Mets here are some things I'd consider:

* Sign Scott Hatteberg and release Carlos Delgado.

* Send Mike Pelfrey to New Orleans when Pedro comes back Tuesday. Pelfrey is killing them and needs to go back and work on his pitches and his mental approach.

* Trade for Kevin Millar, Xavier Nady, and/or Jason Bay. These names are bouncing around all over the trade rumors and the writers are correct that one or two of these guys would help, without costing too much. Millar isn't much better than Delgado, but he might just be the fiery leader they have needed for the past couple of years. It's time to cowboy up. A platoon of Millar and Hatteberg, with the other available for pinch-hitting, would be more productive and less miserable than Delgado.

* Trade Oliver Perez if they can get a young starter in return. He's leaving after the season anyway, and he just is not reliable enough. I'd much rather have a less-talented, more consistent pitcher this year. Kind of like Brian Bannister.

* Send Raul Casanova back to New Orleans, and recall Argenis Reyes. They should have done this even before Castillo got hurt again. That injury was beyond inevitable, given that Castillo has been playing practically every inning of every game for way too long now. As has Reyes, Wright, and Beltran, by the way. How long before Beltran pulls something?

* Sign Freddie Garcia to be the fifth starter when he is ready to pitch again.

* Release Orlando Hernandez. That ship has sailed.

* Add Jose Valentin to the coaching staff, with the major task of teaching Jose Reyes how to be a winning baseball player instead of just a great talent. Reyes is getting on base, but he is not sparking the team the way he did in the past. He is also not backing up bases and doing the little things that winning teams do. I wish he would model himself after the younger version of Derek Jeter and today's Jimmy Rollins, because that's what the Mets need from him. He makes too many physical and mental errors, and the Mets aren't good enough to keep overcoming them.

I would fire Randolph and Rick Peterson and start over, but since they chose to stay the course, the players need to be shuffled until they find an effective combination.

Carlos Delgado needs to go, and not just because he is not performing on the field. The fact is that Delgado does not seem at all comfortable playing for the Mets, and in New York. I think he hates the fans for booing him ruthlessly even before he became a Met. When he was with the Marlins, the fans booed him for his refusal to stand for God Bless America, and for his comments about the way Omar Minaya tried to recruit him as a free agent.

I don't think he ever wanted to play for the Mets, and he looks conflicted and unhappy all the time. The media is pressuring him to be a vocal leader, and he doesn't want to, mostly because he knows that he is not playing well enough to lead by example. The best thing for all concerned is to release him and let him play somewhere else.

It's really unfortunate, because he is one of the most intelligent and cultured players in baseball, and deserves a better end to his wonderful career. I always respected him before he came to the Mets, and nothing has changed that. He just isn't a good fit for the Mets now, and they need to admit they made a mistake in trading Mike Jacobs for him.

In the American League, one point that needs to be made is that the Yankees are incredibly fortunate that most of the teams that were predicted to contend have played below expectations. The Mariners, Tigers, and Indians were supposed to be much better, thus making it more difficult to win the wild card. Instead, the main competition for the wild card looks like the A's, Blue Jays, and Rays, and it gives the Yankees a decent shot at making the playoffs even though they probably aren't all that good, as their record shows.

Before the season I thought the Mets had a better chance to make the playoffs than the Yankees, but the way it is playing out, the Yankees have a better window of opportunity due to the weakened competition in the American League. Joel Sherman of the NY Post has written about why the National League has seemed to surpass the American League as the dominant league this year, and he made some good points about the NL being younger and less home run happy. He connects it to fear of being outed for steroid use, and I would add that the younger players have had to succeed despite tougher drug testing in the minor leagues.

The answer for teams that want to win now is to get younger. Since that has always been the answer for teams that are rebuilding, it will put an even greater premium on young talent, making it much harder to acquire young stars. The team with the best scouting and player development systems will dominate from here on out. In other words, Brian Cashman is on the right track with the transition to young pitching, and Omar Minaya may have given up too much young talent recently, causing the Mets to fail in their quest to be a dominant team in the near future.

Judy Kamilhor © 2008

Mets Looking Up, But Will It Last?

2008-04-20T13:25:00.003-04:00

The beauty of baseball is that just when you think you know what will happen, everything turns upside down. Last time I posted here, the Mets looked flat, and very unlike a championship team. Now, things are certainly better, and Jose Reyes has gotten his groove back.

The starting pitchers are pitching very well, and who could have expected Mike Pelfrey and Nelson Figueroa to pitch as well as they have so far? The bullpen has been mostly good, except for a few more homeruns allowed by Aaron Heilman. The offense is waking up, thanks to MVP-candidate David Wright, with solid contributions from Ryan Church, Angel Pagan, Brian Schneider, and now Reyes, too.

Duaner Sanchez is back, Moises Alou and Pedro Martinez are on the way in the next few weeks, and maybe even Ramon Castro will make it back onto the field before the All-Star break. As for El Duque, how do you say "The Boot" in Spanish?

Right now, it seems like the Arizona Diamondbacks are the class of the National League, and I expect them to stay on top of the league all year. The other top teams that I expect to be there at the end: Milwaukee, Chicago, Rockies, and Mets.

I am not impressed by the Phillies or the Braves right now, but of course, that could change in a heartbeat. The Phillies desperately miss Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino, not only their top of the order hitters, but their two best defensive players at the prime defensive positions.

National League surprises so far: The Cardinals and Marlins are playing way over their heads, and should fall back to the bottom half of their respective divisions sooner rather than later. I have to say that if the Cardinals make the playoffs this year, Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan should be sent directly to Cooperstown.

In the American League, it looks to me like the AL Central is going to be the most interesting division in baseball, with all five teams being about average or slightly better. It wouldn't surprise me to see all five teams clustered around the .500 mark well into the season before someone pulls away. The White Sox and Royals have as good a chance as the favored Indians and Tigers to end up on top. The Twins always seem to overachieve, so don't count them out, either.

The Red Sox and Los Angeles de Anaheim, as expected, are the best teams, and most likely to make the playoffs. After that, it's wide open. The Wild Card could be the Mariners, A's, Blue Jays, Yankees, or even the Rays (who should be called the Tampa Rays, not the Tampa Bay Rays). I doubt any of the AL Central teams will be in the Wild Card race.

American League surprises: Baltimore, and to a lesser degree, Oakland are overachieving, and will slip back towards the bottom soon. Cleveland and Detroit are much better than their records, but may never recover to the degree that was predicted. Sabathia is a concern, and the Tigers really need a healthy Curtis Granderson and Joel Zumaya to get back to the top.

Mets' Notes

I am not a fan of Willie Randolph in general, but I have to give him credit for moving Ryan Church to the second spot in the batting order. It balances the lefties better, and allows Church to get more fastballs to pound. Castillo is a good number two hitter in many ways, but his total lack of power and his obsession with bunting is not what the Mets need this year.

My usual complaint about Randolph is his use of his bullpen, and this year I am also concerned about his insistence on pitching his starters on five days rest instead of the usual four. The first thing I would have done this year is pencil in Johan Santana every fifth day and squeeze everyone else in around him. That would give Santana around 36 starts, and allow them to skip the fifth starter a few times.

So far, Pelfrey and Figueroa have far exceeded expectations, but you still need to maximize your ace, especially with the injuries to Martinez and El Duque.

Randolph is still overusing some relievers and underusing others. Heilman has pitched in 11 of 16 games, a total of 12 innings, and Feliciano has only pitched in 7 games, for a paltry total of 3 and 2/3 innings. From what I've seen, Feliciano's control and effectiveness increase the more he pitches, so basically Randolph never gives him a chance to get into a rhythm. Feliciano is as good as Heilman, and often as good as Wagner, so I don't understand the way he is used.

When injured players such as Alou, Wise, and Martinez come back, the Mets will have some tough decisions to make. My suggestions: Alou should return to be the primary LF, but should only play about 2/3 of the games. There is no reason to play him until he drops again, like Randolph did last year. With Pagan and Endy Chavez around, there is no reason for Alou to have to start every day.

I would also ask Alou to take some grounders at 1B, to see if he can handle spot duty there. The Mets lack a true backup at 1B, and Alou makes the most sense, since he lacks range in the OF, and seems to get hurt diving for balls and running into fences.

I have a feeling Matt Wise will not contribute much to the Mets this year. I like him, and think he's a good pitcher, but I'm not sure he can handle New York pressure. Mets' fans are getting worse every year, having this perverse need to pick a scapegoat (usually a relief pitcher, going back to the days of Doug Sisk) and run him out of town. Scott Schoeneweis and more recently Aaron Heilman are the current scapegoats, but I could see Wise getting booed after a couple of bad performances, and not handling it well.

The fact is, unless they trade Heilman, Sosa, or Schoeneweis, they don't really need Wise anyway. Smith and Sanchez look fine, and are probably better than Wise from here on out.

Martinez is going to be the most interesting "acquisition" this year. I don't really expect him to give the Mets much. I was fooled by his excellent Spring Training, and expected a good year, but he really is too brittle, and seems to be preparing for retirement in his mind.

In any event, they are going to have to get rid of a pitcher or two one way or another, and I'd prefer to lose the old guys rather than the young ones.

Yankees' Notes

I can't wait to see what they do about the poor start, especially by the young starters and old position players. They should stay the course, but will the new Steinbrenners have the patience to ride out a bumpy, probably non-playoff level, season? What's remarkable isn't that the Yankees are struggling this year, but that they continued making the playoffs every year, even though they got off to terrible starts in most of the past few years.

I agree that Joe Girardi was a good choice as manager, and that it was time for Joe Torre to go, but you have to give Torre all the credit in the world for getting them straightened out every time. Remember Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon saving the day? There are only so many times where that can happen before it all comes crashing down.

Time to trade Moose and Damon, and turn Giambi into a pinch-hitter. Go with the kids, and let them learn on the job. Next year, the Yankees should be back at the competitive level they are accustomed to, if they don't panic . . . .

© Judy Kamilhor 2008

In For a Wild Season

2008-04-09T15:37:00.002-04:00

The Tigers are 0-7 and the Orioles are 6-1. Everything is going exactly according to plan, in Bizarro Baseball World. The Mets look just like last year's model, and the Yankees look like a good team that is rebuilding on the fly.

Teams that are improving include the Royals, Rays, and Reds. I expect them all to stay competitive all year, and even stay in the playoff race for longer than most people expected. The Orioles, on the other hand, can't possibly maintain their good play for very long.

Why is that the Angels are always the good team that plays well, no matter what? The Red Sox will be fine once they readjust to Eastern Daylight Time. The Brewers and Cubs look like they will replay last year, with the Brewers getting out to an early lead, and the Cubs having a better second half and ending up on top. Eric Gagne is a disaster, and the Brewers bullpen is going to have to step up to avoid a repeat of last year. Good luck with that.

The Mets look like they need a kick in the pants from somewhere, and I don't see Willie Randolph providing it. I honestly think they need to fire Randolph sooner rather than later, and bring in a real leader. What's Davey Johnson up to these days? Or Felipe Alou . . . .

They may even need to clean the whole slate and fire Omar Minaya, too. This team does not look like a championship-caliber team to me so far, and with all the money they have spent, it really should.

Caroms off the wall

I miss Ruben Gotay already, and so will the Mets if Castillo has to go on the DL. I predict that Argenis Reyes will spend at least part of the year as the starting second baseman for the Mets.

© Judy Kamilhor 2008

Moises Alou and Orlando Hernandez

2008-02-24T13:09:00.002-05:00

The Mets have two players that might appear to be at similar points in their illustrious careers. Moises Alou and Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez are both older and extremely injury-prone, but there are two important differences between them. Alou is either on the DL or playing well; Hernandez is either on the DL, hurt and pitching poorly, or healthy and pitching well.

The major difference, though, is that Alou is professional and mature, not causing a distraction when something is wrong. El Duque, as great as he has been when healthy, is a head-case and always has been when something hurts.

I see El Duque becoming a major distraction at some point this season as the Mets try to ease him out and Pelfrey in. His ego is bigger than his talent at this point, and Pelfrey has probably already surpassed him. The best thing that could happen for the Mets is probably that Pelfrey pitches even better than last Spring Training, and El Duque agrees to have surgery and retires.

© Judy Kamilhor 2008

The baseball gods deliver Johan Santana to the Mets

2008-02-03T12:14:00.001-05:00

Yi-hah! It took a while, but it was worth every agonizing minute, and now Johan Santana is the ace that the Mets have craved ever since Pedro Martinez started showing signs of age and an increased susceptibility to injury.

Every once in a while, a team is clearly one player away from being a legitimate World Series contender. It was practically unanimous around here that Johan Santana was that guy for these Mets. The last time this happened, it was Mike Hampton in 2000, and he did help the Mets get to the World Series, only to lose to the Yankees.

A lot of Met fans seem to have forgotten that Hampton did exactly what he was brought over to do, and then, fortunately for the Mets, he decided not to stick around. Met fans have never forgiven him for leaving for the better school systems of Colorado, but really, his career has been a disaster ever since.

Back to Santana and 2008. Pitchers are always risky, and even the best of them are never guaranteed to stay healthy and at the top of their game for the length of their contracts, but Johan Santana comes as close as anyone I can think of as a great bet to dominate and lead the Mets to great things. He's a great athlete, has a bulldog mentality, according to everything I've been reading, and he wants to pitch and win for the Mets.

In addition to his dominance on the mound, he won the 2007 Fielding Bible Award for the best defensive pitcher, and his career .258 batting average (with a triple and double) shows that he will likely contribute with the bat, as well.

Now that the 2008 Mets are basically set, other than the final bench spot(s), and figuring out the bullpen, here are some observations and recommendations:

Lineup:
1 Reyes SS
2 Castillo 2B
3 Wright 3B (and MVP)
4 Beltran CF
5 Delgado 1B vs. RHP; Alou RF vs. LHP
6 Alou RF vs. RHP; Delgado 1B vs. LHP
7 Church LF
8 Schneider C vs. RHP; Castro C vs. LHP

Bench:
Chavez OF
Castro C
Anderson IF, OF, PH extraordinaire
Easley IF, OF
Pagan OF
Gotay IF, OF?

Starting Pitchers:
1 Santana
2 Martinez
3 Maine
4 Perez
5 El Duque (first half); Mike Pelfrey (second half)

Bullpen:
Wagner Closer
Heilman
Feliciano
Sanchez (fingers crossed)
Wise (or maybe Schoeneweis if he looks good in Spring Training)(Joe Smith by mid-season?)
Sosa (first half); El Duque (second half)

Ryan Church led all regular left fielders in putouts per 9 innings last year, and was 8th in the Fielding Bible Award voting for LF. Alou played play RF as recently as 2006, and last year, Ryan Church did not play a single inning in RF. So switch them, and have dominant defense in two out of three OF slots. Chavez is there to come in around the 7th inning for defense in place of Alou whenever the Mets have the lead. Please, Willie, do not play Alou until he gets hurt; give him a lot of breaks by resting him twice a week and replacing him early and often with Chavez.

Ruben Gotay, one of my favorites, really does not have a spot right now, but I would send him to Triple A and turn him into a super-utility guy if he had an option left, which I recently found out he doesn't. I've been saying this for a while now, but he would be really valuable as someone who could play most positions and, of course, pinch-hit. He doesn't look like he'll ever become a regular second baseman, for the Mets at least, but he is a good offensive player, and I think he's athletic enough to play just about anywhere.

Notice that I have recommended 11 pitchers and 14 position players. With Santana around, there is less need for the extra reliever, and maybe this will force Willie Randolph to let his relievers pitch to more than one batter in an appearance.

Similarly to Alou, I think it's time to plan ahead for Orlando Hernandez's inevitable injury. Instead of pitching him until he gets hurt, give him scheduled time off once or twice during the season. Also, I would like to see him moved to the bullpen for the second half and (hopefully) the post-season, giving Pelfrey a half season of Triple A to learn to dominate, and to pitch deeper into games.

The Mets could use one more bench player to replace Pagan. They should be on the look-out for a right-handed batter or switch-hitter that hits better from the right side, that plays above average defense at 1B, 3B, SS, LF, and RF (or as many of those positions as possible).

One player that comes to mind, and is available, is Brandon Inge of the Tigers. He can also catch and play CF, which is a nice bonus. He is a right-handed batter with decent power. If they could get him in the right frame of mind, he would be an awesome utility player, and he would allow Castro to be used more as a pinch-hitter. Mark DeRosa is another guy that fits the bill, but it looks like he will be the Cubs' starting second baseman this year. If they trade for Brian Roberts, the Mets should ask about DeRosa.

Caroms off the wall

If the players are determined to put last year behind them, and develop the killer instinct needed to get to, and win in, the post season, this team is talented enough to do it. Santana helps enormously in the killer instinct department, and the players have to be pumped up that Santana is on their team. Now they just have to get out there and focus consistently for six months and want to win more than everyone else.

© Judy Kamilhor 2008 revised 2/24/08

Santana and the Mets

2008-01-07T11:04:00.000-05:00

Here's a thought on the Mets strategy. The Mets acquired Angel Pagan, giving them another relatively young CF possibility. What if they are planning on making the following offer to Minnesota for Johan Santana:

Endy Chavez or Angel Pagan (to play CF in 2008)
Carlos Gomez or Fernando Martinez (top OF prospects)
Deolis Guerra or Kevin Mulvey (the Mets' top 2 pitching prospects)
Aaron Heilman, Mike Pelfrey or Philip Humber (major league or major league ready pitchers)

This keeps the Mets from losing both Gomez and Martinez, and makes sure the 2008 outfield depth is still there. As for the pitchers, they only lose two top young guys, or one plus the established Heilman, depending on what the Twins are looking for.

© Judy Kamilhor 2008

Happy New Year!

2007-12-30T15:55:00.000-05:00

Pitchers and catchers report February 14 and I'm really looking forward to baseball in 2008. This past year was full of great accomplishments and lots of craziness. The curtain was pulled open on a lot of bad behavior, and the past few weeks have been like a chaotic parade to the confession booth.

The most moving story that I have read lately is that of former Yankee Dan Naulty. It takes a lot of self-acceptance to admit that he never would have it to the major leagues without steroids, and a lot of courage to admit that he was suicidal even though from the outside it would have seemed that he had the perfect life. I wish him the best on his journey, and thank him for telling his powerful story. I'm sure his experiences will benefit others, and maybe prevent some young athlete from making the same bad choices that he once did.

As bad as the Mets' season ended up, it looks like the Yankees are having a worse off-season in many ways. The one thing that the Yankees have always had over any other team is their history of championships that will never be equalled. The events of the past few months have called some of those championship teams into question, with the revelation of steroid and HGH use by many former players on those teams.

Read the NY papers these days and you wouldn't even realize that it was the Mets who suffered through a horrendous late-season collapse. The Mets are barely an afterthought right now; the Yankees are the ones getting all the negative attention for their off-field behavior past and present.

My hope is that more players will come forward and admit to their wrong-doings from the past, and humbly ask for forgiveness, so we can move forward. It is time for athletes to drop their arrogance and start finding some humility before fans completely turn their backs on sports and find better things to give their passion to.

I'm glad Barry Bonds has some company to share the negative spotlight. All he has to do to stop being the most despised baseball player in recent memory is to come clean and accept the consequences. I don't want him to go to jail, but I do want to hear him admit that he cheated by using steroids and other substances knowingly, and express some regret.

Of course, that's not going to happen any time soon, if ever. In addition to the 2008 pennant races and 2008 Presidential Campaign Race, we will get to witness the "Future Hall of Famers Breaking the Denial Race" in which Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds compete to see who will break down and tell the truth first. Expect that race to last the longest, and be the hardest to win.

© Judy Kamilhor 2007

Johan Santana: How Much Is Too Much?

2007-12-02T11:31:00.000-05:00

For the Yankees to get the top available starting pitcher, they might have to give up two of their top three young pitchers, and their young center fielder, Melky Cabrera. If they trade Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, their new rotation would be:

Johan Santana
Chien-Ming Wang
Joba Chamberlain
Mike Mussina
???

The Steinbrenners would have to fly down to Texas and kidnap Andy Pettitte and make him pitch at gun-point.

With Pettitte, you would have to say that is a top-notch rotation, and gives the Yankees a decent chance to catch the Red Sox, but certainly not a guarantee. The Red Sox rotation right now is:

Josh Beckett
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Curt Schilling
Clay Buchholtz
Jon Lester
with Tim Wakefield available in case of injury or one of the young guys struggling.

If it came down to a game 7 in the ALCS, I think Beckett and the Sox would still beat the Yankees and Santana. Nothing against Santana, but Beckett is the best big-game pitcher since Sandy Koufax and Bob Gibson. The Red Sox lineup and defense is still better than the Yankees, especially without Cabrera in CF.

The Red Sox don't need Santana, and have no reason to offer more than they want to for him. This whole deal comes down to how desperate the Yankees are to beat the Red Sox in 2008. It looks like the Yankees are pretty desperate, but maybe not enough to give up Hughes and Kennedy along with Cabrera. I agree that those three would be too much for Santana at this point in his career. Maybe a couple of years ago, but not now after he has shown some signs of returning to the pack of top starters.

Taking a look at where the Mets stand in the Santana sweepstakes, it seems that it is very simple: including Jose Reyes is the only way they get Santana, and Omar Minaya says no way, Jose. As critical as I have been about Reyes's immaturity, I agree that it makes no sense to trade him for Santana right now. If the Twins included Joe Nathan, however, I would reconsider.

This is a time that Omar Minaya needs to get creative. There is always a way to get something done, if you are willing and able to think outside the box. The Mets as they stand right now will look something like this:

1 Jose Reyes SS
2 Luis Castillo 2B
3 David Wright 3B
4 Carlos Beltran CF
5 Carlos Delgado 1B
6 Moises Alou LF
7 Ryan Church/??? RF (platoon with Carlos Gomez, Ben Johnson, Damion Easley, or someone not in the system at the moment: best idea I've read: Bobby Kielty, a free agent)
8 Brian Schneider/Ramon Castro C (platoon)

bench:
Ramon Castro C
Endy Chavez OF
Damion Easley IF/OF
Marlon Anderson IF/OF/PH supreme
and one more from the RF group or perhaps Ruben Gotay if Easley is the RF platoon partner

Starters:
Pedro Martinez
John Maine
Orlando Hernandez
Oliver Perez
Mike Pelfrey/Phillip Humber/Kevin Mulvey/Jason Vargas/???

Bullpen:
Billy Wagner
Aaron Heilman
Pedro Feliciano
Jorge Sosa
Joe Smith
Duaner Sanchez
Scott Schoeneweis

Some recommendations:

Sign a guy like Bartolo Colon or Mark Prior and make him a setup guy.
Consider trying Heilman in the rotation, just to see what he can do.
Sign Livan Hernandez to replace his older half-brother for the half of the year that El Duque will be injured.
Shop Billy Wagner (and offer to pay most of his salary) to get some top prospects.
Shop Carlos Delgado and even Carlos Beltran, just to see if there's a market for them.
If they trade Wagner, go after Joe Nathan big-time. He's much better than Wagner and is not a clubhouse problem like big-mouth Wagner.

None of those things will happen, of course, but I assume there will be several changes before the season starts, but nothing huge. This is basically the same team as last year, with a better defensive catcher, and younger and faster RF (than Shawn Green), and more experience for Maine and Perez. The key may again be Pedro Martinez. I think he will have one more very good year before he really starts to break down. He would be really interesting as a closer in a couple of years, by the way. I always thought Roger Clemens would have been an intriguing closer once he passed 40. I guess that's why the baseball gods invented Strat-O-Matic!

On the downside, the old guys are a year older, and the young pitchers haven't really impressed anyone yet, and may never be good enough to stick around.

The thing about the Mets is that it's not really about talent anyway. It's all about attitude. This group could win the World Series if Willie Randolph manages to instill a killer instinct and eliminate all the dancing hysteria and pouting (Jose) and whining/sniping (hello Billy Wagner). The Mets should sit down as a group and watch the New York Rangers play hockey, to see what teamwork and hard work look like. In hockey, the team that wants it more usually wins, and I think this is true in baseball too, especially in September and October. That is the only reason the Phillies beat the Mets last year; they absolutely wanted it more.

If the Mets played baseball like the Rangers play hockey, they would at least reach the World Series in 2008 with or without Johan Santana or anyone else.

© Judy Kamilhor, baseball gods productions, 2007

Now the real work begins

2007-11-05T14:32:00.000-05:00

This is the time of the year when I wish I would have pursued working in baseball when I was a lot younger, so I could be part of the planning process for the coming baseball season. Most of what happens between now and pitchers and catchers happens behind closed doors or on cell phones, with only bits and pieces being reported. I would love to help make the decisions for once.

I will say, without reservation, that if I were a general manager, or anyone connected with the player development department of a MLB team, I would not sign Alex Rodriguez under any circumstances. It's not even the exorbitant salary requirements that have convinced me, but something much more basic. Alex Rodriguez is not a winner. All the talent in the world is not enough to overcome his emotional fragility that plays out by sucking the life out of his team. I would take Mike Lowell over A-Rod any day, and best of all, Lowell is much cheaper, allowing a team to spread the money around.

Even if A-Rod were not a proven playoff disaster, I would still not tie up 20-30% of my payroll in any one player. This is not the NBA, where one superstar can have such a huge impact that it may be worth it when a once in a lifetime player becomes available. I firmly believe that any team that signs A-Rod is guaranteeing that they will not win the World Series as long as he is the center of attention. The best thing that can happen for the Yankees in 2008 is for the Red Sox to sign A-Rod.

Nothing would make me happier than for A-Rod and Barry Bonds to remain unsigned on April 1, 2008. Maybe they should apply for an expansion team and play together, along with a bunch of undrafted college players, or more realistically, just the two of them, one on each side of the field, or taking turns pitching.

2008 Mets

I am so disappointed with last year's finish, that I would put every single Met on the trading block, except for David Wright. Players I would like to see in Flushing include Yorvit Torrealba, Johan Santana, Scott Kazmir, Joe Nathan, Aaron Rowand, and David Eckstein. I wouldn't mind Curt Schilling replacing Tom Glavine, because even though Schilling has a big mouth, he is obviously a better big game pitcher than Glavine. I think Glavine's last start is the most disappointing pitching performance I've ever seen. I respect what Glavine has done in his career, and much of what he did for the Mets, and I think he's a stand-up guy, but it's time for him to go.

Repeating something I've said many times, I don't think a team with Billy Wagner as its closer will ever win the World Series. The more important the game, the worse he pitches. He also has a big mouth, and is often saying things that should not be said to a reporter. I trust Pedro Feliciano and Aaron Heilman more to close under pressure than Wagner, but I know the Mets won't make a switch like that until Wagner's contract expires. I would trade Wagner now, while he still has some value, and even pay part of his salary, to get some top prospects or young players to help now.

I wonder how much the loss of Jose Valentin affected Jose Reyes last year. Valentin seemed to be a real mentor for Reyes, and that's what he needs right now: someone to push him to get the most out of his off-the-charts talent. Maybe Luis Castillo can be that person, I don't know, but Reyes made so many mental errors the second half of last year, that he made me lose faith in his value to a winning team.

The moment I knew the Mets were in trouble this past season: when the announcers and reporters were debating whether John Maine or Oliver Perez should be moved to the bullpen for the playoffs. Very premature, and foolish when you consider how Orlando Hernandez and Tom Glavine finished up.

Next year, the rotation includes Pedro Martinez, John Maine, Oliver Perez, and an ace acquired by trade. The fifth guy will probably be whichever prospect they don't trade, of Kevin Mulvey, Phil Humber, or Mike "Charlie McCarthy" Pelfrey. Not too bad, really.

The reconstruction of the bullpen will be the greatest task ahead, and I think the Mets need to go for quality and quantity. J.C. Romero would be a good pick-up, to replace Schoeneweis. It's time to release Guillermo Mota, before a deranged fan runs onto the field and pretends to be Mike Piazza.

Picking up Moises Alou's option was smart. With Beltran, Milledge, Chavez, and Gomez, there is no real need for another outfielder, although I would shop Beltran, just to see what's out there.

Catching is going to be interesting, as all four of their current catchers have already filed for free agency. I would try to resign Castro and sign Torrealba to start. Castro's arthritis was a shocker, and makes him questionable as a number one catcher from here on out. He's the best backup catcher in the game, in my opinion, so the Mets should definitely bring him back.

At second base, I really like Ruben Gotay, and think he can be an excellent all around player. I wouldn't mind signing Luis Castillo or David Eckstein for 1-2 years, but if they don't, it wouldn't be a terrible thing.

The Mets have enough talent to win, what they really need is an attitude adjustment. They could use someone like Jason Varitek to kick their butts once in a while, because I don't think Willie Randolph really commands that kind of respect at this point.

Next time, the Yankees . . . .

© Judy Kamilhor 2007

The World Series Begins

2007-10-24T09:28:00.000-04:00

In the ALCS, I had a feeling that game 2 was going to be the key, that if Boston won, the series would be over quickly, and if Cleveland won, it would be down to the wire. Usually in a post-season series, the first game is in many ways the least important, and certainly the least predictive of the eventual winner.

This year's World Series is different, though, and I think game 1 will be the key. It's the irrestible force vs. the immovable object, the rolling Rockies vs. Josh Beckett. If Beckett continues his dominance and breaks the Rockies' incredible run of success, I think Boston will win the series easily. However, if the Rockies beat Beckett, they have a huge edge the rest of the way, especially with the lack of the DH in the middle three games.

My sense (and I said I was out of the prediction business) is that Beckett will dominate and Boston will win game 1. The Red Sox are what the Mets want to be and aren't quite; talented, ultra-competitive, and possessed with the killer instinct of a champion. I am rooting for the Red Sox, but if Colorado wins, I won't be too unhappy. They are impressive and a classy organization, and have been an amazing story this past few weeks.

© Judy Kamilhor 2007

Creativity vs. the usual moves

2007-10-17T14:22:00.000-04:00

While watching this year's bizarre and refreshing post-season, it occurred to me that it may not matter whether managers get creative or stay with the status quo. It all comes back to the real determiners of post-season results: the baseball gods. Why fight it?

On the other hand, if I were managing, here are some things I might have tried, just for kicks:

Boston:

Everyone talked about the choice of Wakefield or Beckett in game 4, and how it would affect the rest of the rotation. Only two options were mentioned, but there was a third, which I might have tried:

Game 4: Beckett
Game 5: Wakefield
Game 6: Schilling
Game 7: Beckett

This gets Matsuzaka out before he commits ritual suicide, and gets an extra start for the best post-season pitcher in the world, Josh Beckett. This occurred to me before the announcers mentioned that Beckett's back may have prevented him from coming back on three days rest, but my point is that a little creativity can go a long way, and it's rarely displayed these days.

I also would have started Jacoby Ellsbury in RF, and batting leadoff, moving Pedroia down to the bottom of the order. From what I've been reading on the Internet, I'm not alone with this idea, as most of Boston seems to want some variation of this switch to be made.

The way they are expressing their disdain for J. D. Drew, however, is pissing me off. It's the old "gratuitous insults to women" issue all over again. I used to keep a file with all the quotes from players, fans, and media comparing poor performances by major leaguers with women.

The recent Drew examples include calling him "Nancy Drew," and saying clever things like "he hits like my kid sister," etc. As a female athlete, I am sick of this. Reality check: J. D. Drew hits better than 99.999% of people on earth, including the idiots who call him Nancy Drew.

And there are plenty of women, such as Jenny Finch, and everyone else on the women's US Olympic softball team, that hit a lot better than those same idiots. It's time to give it a rest, and be more creative with your insults.

Arizona:

Game 4: Not only would I have pitched Micah Owings, as they did, but I would have batted him leadoff. I actually think that Owings is the best hitter and slugger on Arizona, period. His slugging average was .615, better than virtually every hitter in the NL this year. Batting him first is like giving him an extra at bat, which is certainly a good thing given their lack of offense. I wish they would make him a first baseman, by the way, and use him as a relief pitcher once in a while. He's not going to be a star as a starter, but I'd sure like to see him bat four times every day. I still miss Brooks Kieschnick, the last pitcher/hitter in MLB.

What I'm trying to say here, is that creativity is good, even when the baseball gods are being their usual inscrutable and devilish selves.

© Judy Kamilhor 2007

Someone Else's Agony Now

2007-10-04T13:32:00.000-04:00

Something cosmic has been going on, and all my National League picks fell apart at the end. There was a time this season when all my first place predictions were actually in first place, or at least tied, and then the Brewers, Padres, and Mets sunk like anchors into the ocean. Congratulations to the Phillies, Cubs, Diamond Backs, and Rockies for playing like they wanted to win something. And now, it's someone else's heartache as each playoff series ends, and one more team is eliminated.

At least my American League picks did a lot better. Before the season, I picked Boston, Los Angeles de Anaheim, and Detroit to win their divisions, and the Yankees to win the Wild Card. 3 out of 4 isn't bad. I'm not surprised Cleveland played well, but I really expected Detroit to play better. It just proves how hard it is to get to World Series; everything has to go well for most of the season, which isn't as easy as it seems.

For the post-season, I am rooting and not predicting. It's less stressful and more fun. So, I am rooting for the Red Sox, Indians, Cubs, and Rockies to advance.

The Mets' collapse really hurt, although it wasn't totally surprising, as I was seeing small signs of their lack of killer instinct over the past couple of years. The biggest disappointment has to be Jose Reyes. His performance in the second half of the season was a huge step backwards in both performance and attitude, and he could become a real problem for Willie Randolph if Willie doesn't step up and make clear demands of how he expects Reyes to go about his business.

It's obvious to me that if Jimmy Rollins and Jose Reyes switched teams before this season, the Mets would have won the division. Rollins showed that he is the MVP this year, and Reyes showed how immature he still is.

The Mets' leaders have managed to put themselves in the same position as the Yankees, as far as needing to win the World Series to keep their jobs next year. At least the Yankees won some World Championships under Torre before they got to that point.

This offseason is going to be very interesting for the Metsies. Next I'll address some changes I would make if I were GM.

© Judy Kamilhor 2007

RBI Cycle and Strat-O-Matic

2007-08-22T12:51:00.001-04:00

Garret Anderson's 10 RBI game held an unusual tidbit: he knocked in 1, 2, 3, and 4 runs in 4 at-bats, giving him the extremely rare RBI Cycle. I don't know if anyone has ever done this before.

The Joba Rules remind me of playing Strat-O-Matic as a kid (and as an adult). In order to get realistic usage of relief pitchers, there would be this chart with how much rest a pitcher needed before and after pitching a certain number of innings. Like Joe Torre needs more things to worry about.

I like the Jeff Conine trade for the Mets; he's Damion Easley, except he can back-up at 1B more reliably than anyone they've had for a few years, and he has excellent post-season experience. Way to go, Omar Minaya.

One question. Who is the Mets' backup shortstop right now? It might be a good idea to have Anderson Hernandez on the roster on August 31, to keep him eligible for a post-season roster spot (replacing the 12th pitcher).

© Judy Kamilhor 2007

Mid-August Report

2007-08-17T12:41:00.000-04:00

The next six weeks of baseball are going to very interesting for the two New York teams. Steve Phillips has predicted that neither the Mets or Yankees will make the post-season this year, and I think he might be right. The Yankees need to show that they can win series against teams like Detroit and the Angels, and that their recent hot streak was not another tease.

The Mets look tired, and shocked that other teams can keep clawing away until they come back. The game last night was possibly a microcosm of the whole season, get out to an early lead, and then watch the other team creep back, and end up on top after a complete bullpen breakdown. The Mets season may well depend on how Pedro Martinez does in his comeback. That could be asking too much from their future Hall-of-Fame pitcher.

The player that personifies the Mets season so far is definitely Carlos Beltran. He is one of the most talented players to ever play the game. There isn't a skill he doesn't have; his speed, defense, and power are top-of-the-line, and he makes the game look easy. However, he also does not run hard when he assumes there won't be a play, he gets skittish when he might collide with another player when chasing a fly ball, and he does not seem to want the responsibility of leading by his actions and words. Since he joined the Mets, there have been at least 3 times where he had a seemingly minor injury, and ended up on the DL a week later, costing the team all those games playing a man short because he couldn't play with pain.

What the Mets need more than anything is for Beltran to continue his hot streak, play every day, and find his inner leader. He needs to show some passion for winning, and the rest of the team needs to develop some killer instinct before they find themselves in third place in the NL East.

I expected the Braves and Mets to be neck-and-neck all year, and thought that the difference would be the Mets' willingness to spend money at the trade deadline to upgrade their weak spots. As it turned out, the Braves were the ones who upgraded, and the Mets only addressed one weakness by replacing Ruben Gotay with Luis Castillo. While Castillo is a pro, and brings a lot to the team, Gotay wasn't exactly their major problem. He was one of the few players who brought energy to the team, and his hitting was phenomenal.

I still have big problems with the way Willie Randolph uses his bullpen, and last night was a good example. Pedro Feliciano is one of their three best relievers, and he has pitched to one batter in the last week. Guillermo Mota is allowed to put runner after runner on base, and Willie stays with him, but as soon as Feliciano puts one guy on, that's it. Feliciano can't get out of his slump by pitching to one guy a week. And last night, it looked like Feliciano hates Randolph so much that he doesn't want to play for him anymore. His expression when Randolph took him out was scary. I don't blame him; I just hope he can work his way back to where he was the past two seasons, because the Mets need him desperately.

Guillermo Mota should not pitch with a small lead, in any inning, in any game that is important. He isn't a good pitcher, simple as that. Righty, lefty, eventually it comes down to whether someone can get out hitters, and he can't do it well enough to justify the situations he is being used in.

So far, the Yankees have done a good job handling adversity, and have mounted an impressive attempt to get back in the playoff chase. I still don't see them passing Boston, but obviously the wild card is there for the taking. My hunch is that they will fall just short. They've won mostly because of their offense, with just about everyone hot at the same time. This never lasts, and once a few guys cool off, the pitching will be the deciding factor, and not in a good way.

One interesting thought is that Joba Chamberlain, who is pencilled in as a starter next year, should become the next closer. Rivera has not pitched like his dominant self all year, not just this week, and he doesn't have a contract for next year. He might not be worth what he will command in salary, and the Yankees may make a bold move by getting rid of him a little too soon, rather than way too late. If anyone is suited to closing, it's this Chamberlain kid. Even I'm rooting for him, because I'm a sucker for a great back story.

Caroms Off the Wall

Congratulations to Rick Ankiel on his amazing return to the big leagues. I truly hope he can sustain it, and become a successful every day player. It will all depend on his ability to handle all the attention. I hope he is mentally prepared for the tremendous response he will get everywhere he goes.

© Judy Kamilhor 2007

Baseball's Most Obsessive Time of Year

2007-07-25T14:05:00.000-04:00

Here we are, the week before the non-waiver trade deadline. Every day there is a new rumor, raising my adrenaline level and making me keep checking the baseball web sites for new information. The Mets and Yankees are always in the middle of everything, as teams that are in the playoff hunt and with lots of cash to throw around for that veteran who will help put them where they want to be, October baseball.

Will the Yankees current hot streak make them more likely to surrender a top prospect for someone that will help them now? Will the Mets injuries cause them to make a move that hurts them in the future? Will the Red Sox make a move simply to prevent the Yankees from improving? Stay tuned....

If I were Omar Minaya, I would look to get rid of some of veterans, as well as adding some. Four guys they should consider trading are Paul Lo Duca, Shawn Green, Scott Schoeneweiss, and Guillermo Mota. Billy Beane is an expert at being both a buyer and seller at the trade deadline, which is one reason the team never aged rapidly and needed to completely rebuild. The Mets should follow this path, to get some prospects or young major leaguers back for the guys they should replace or already have replacements for.

I would like to see Ramon Castro become the number one catcher, with Sandy Alomar, Jr. backing him up. I think Castro contributes more than Lo Duca, especially when you take into consideration their different temperaments. Castro keeps everyone light and loose, while Lo Duca is temperamental and negative a lot of the time, like right now.

Shawn Green is a player I have always liked, and his offense isn't hurting the team, but his lack of range in RF is killing the Mets time and again. In last year's loss to the Cardinals, it was Green's lack of range that led to two huge hits, and may have cost the Mets the series. There are teams that could use Green as an offensive upgrade, and maybe he could be a DH somewhere. He's a better hitter than Johnny Damon these days, for example. Jermaine Dye would be an upgrade defensively, and will probably hit for more power the rest of the season.

The bullpen could really use an upgrade, and since the Mets are not sure what Pedro Martinez will contribute, they can't be sure they will be able to move Jorge Sosa into the bullpen to replace Aaron Sele, or one of the two guys I mentioned earlier. If they trade for a starter now, it will improve both the rotation and the bullpen, and make Pedro's return less essential. The problem with trading for a starter is that none of the names I've seen are really better than Sosa. The guy I've wanted for a while is Dontrelle Willis, but I would not want to give up too much for him, since it looks like he may have an alcohol problem. When the Marlins send a pitcher to rehab, it is just as likely to be for substance abuse as an injury. I would be willing to trade Mike Pelfrey for a considerably better than average starter or reliever, if there is one to be had. To me, Pelfrey lacks the killer instinct that is required to become a consistent winner in the major leagues. He also looks like Charlie McCarthy with that teeth grinding contraption he was wearing the last time he was called up. If you are too young to get the reference, Google it.

It's not a coincidence that the Mets have been playing better with Lastings Milledge and Ruben Gotay playing most of the time. They are both high energy guys that hit the ball hard and seem to enjoy coming up in pressure situations. The Mets are probably fortunate that Jose Valentin got hurt when he did, because he wasn't contributing enough since he came back from the knee problem. I don't think they need a new second baseman, but if they could get someone like Grudzielanek without giving up a real prospect, it would probably make sense. At this point, they can't even think about trading Milledge, because Moises Alou is so unreliable. He really is more injury prone than Cliff Floyd, which is hard to believe.

As for the Yankees, I agree with Brian Cashman that trading one of his top pitching prospects is a mistake. They should be looking to dump some of their overpaid, underperforming guys, not add more expensive contracts for marginal upgrades. Trading Johnny Damon and/or Bobby Abreu would be priorities, along with Kyle Farnsworth. I was right about it being a mistake to resign Mike Mussina, especially for two years. He is probably untradeable, but they should investigate anyway. The Yankees need to get younger and more athletic, rather than older and more expensive. Carl Crawford would be the kind of guy they should be going after. Their bad pitchers are better than Tampa Bay's "good" pitchers, so maybe there's a fit there somewhere.

Yes, the Yankees look pretty good right now. And when Phil Hughes comes back, it should help a lot. I don't think they have a chance to pass Boston, because Boston is still a better team, and I can't see the Yankees playing that much better than Boston the rest of the way to make up the deficit. The Wild Card is more realistic, and could be had if Cleveland struggles and none of the other teams gets hot. My recommendation for the Yankees all along has been to get some hungry young guys who are ready to prove themselves on the biggest stage, and get rid of the old guys that are deteriorating before our eyes. Rather than a salary dump, I think this would result in a better chance to make the playoffs.

Caroms off the wall

Congratulations to Jon Lester on his excellent comeback performance. I hope the Sox don't trade him.

If Alex Rodriguez opts out of his contract, the Texas Rangers will dance for joy, and the Yankees will be screwed. I dislike agent Scott Boras, but you have to give him credit for A-Rod's ingenious contract. And of course, A-Rod discovered the key to success in New York, which is something many people didn't expect him to ever do.

I have a feeling that Buddy Carlyle is about to become a household name. Like Al Downing.

© Judy Kamilhor 2007

Midseason's Night Dream

2007-07-04T12:55:00.000-04:00

Halfway through the 2007 baseball season, and the Mets and Yankees are having strange seasons. The Yankees are one of the streakiest teams of modern times, with a 9 game winning streak closely followed by a 2-9 streak. Now they are on a mini hot streak, playing very well for the past two games, and looking like the Yankees of old. Don't get used to it. The only real question for this team is who to get rid of, rather than who to add. If I were Brian Cashman, I would take this opportunity to trade some overpaid, over the hill players like Damon, Mussina, Abreu, and Matsui for as many prospects and young major leaguers as possible. Joel Sherman suggested trading A-Rod, with the idea of resigning him next year, and that is not a bad idea, too. Each of these veterans might be attractive to a contending team looking for one more experienced hitter, and the Yankees need to get younger and more energetic sooner rather than later. These moves would actually make it more likely that the Yankees would make the playoffs this year, counter to the usual thinking. Last year's Phillies made a great playoff push after trading Abreu to the Yankees, and this happens because it takes some pressure off the guys that remain, and it injects new life into a tired clubhouse.

As for the Mets, they might be in for a tough stretch, with two sudden injuries to starting pitchers Jorge Sosa and Oliver Perez. I have to question the choices for replacements that the Mets have made. I would have called up Brian Lawrence and Dave Williams for recent starts made by Mike (I'm not ready) Pelfrey and Jason (I need a year at AAA) Vargas. This is the time for veterans to fill in, not young guys who have very limited major league success. Both Lawrence and Williams have been much more effective in their time at New Orleans recovering from their injuries. It's not too late to make a switch, though, as they can still send Pelfrey and Vargas down before they get another chance to decrease the Mets' lead in the division.

I would also recall minor-league veteran Andy Tracy, a right-handed hitting first baseman, to replace Julio Franco. Tracy is having a great year at New Orleans, and this might be his last chance to contribute to the major league team since he is in his early thirties. Every time Julio Franco starts at 1B, I want to cringe, not because he can't field the position, but because he can't hit nearly well enough to play there. And, when he starts, he can't do the one thing he can do adequately, namely pinch-hit.

To give credit where credit is due, Willie Randolph finally left a reliever in to pitch the 9th inning. A few days ago, he let Pedro Feliciano finish the game and get his first save of the year, instead of bringing in Billy Wagner with a four run lead, like he usually does. Feliciano has been the team's most effective and reliable reliever for two years, and Randolph is usually much too quick to take him out. Thank you, Willie!

Paul Lo Duca is a decent player, and brings some needed fire to the Mets, but he is also incredibly immature. I saw a recent interview, and he sounded like a whining seven year old who wasn't getting his way. Now that he has promised to stop talking to the media, maybe some of the team's more mature and controlled players will have to step up and speak once in a while. Maybe the reporters will have to be more creative when collecting post-game quotes, and go to some new voices. It can only help the team. Next year, it would be nice to see Ramon Castro as the number one catcher, or at least splitting the job with someone new.

At first, I was against the Mets trading for a starter like Mark Buehrle, but now I think they need to upgrade. In addition to the two injured guys (and three if you include their best starter, Pedro Martinez), they have an injury-prone Orlando Hernandez, showing signs of fatigue or injury recently), and a less-reliable Tom Glavine. John Maine has become the ace, but they need more reliable pitchers in their prime. I would be willing to trade Pelfrey and a mid-level position prospect for Buehrle, on the condition that the Mets sign him to an extension. I don't think Pelfrey will ever develop into a dominant starter, because he doesn't seem to have that killer instinct that guys like Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, and Josh Beckett have.

Caroms Off the Wall

The Red Sox should trade for Omar Vizquel to replace the fatigued/burnt-out Julio Lugo at SS. Since the Red Sox traded Nomar Garciaparra, the position has been cursed, except for the sorely-missed Orlando Cabrera. Omar Vizquel would look awfully good for the Sox in the playoffs, making every play, and contributing a big hit or two along the way.

© Judy Kamilhor 2007

Am I wrong about the Yankees?

2007-06-11T16:32:00.000-04:00

The Yankees are playing pretty well right now. They are clicking on most cylinders for the first time all year. They also just played the Pittsburgh Pirates in Yankee Stadium, which is almost like playing against a Triple-A team with a few good young pitchers. They were smart to start Clemens against such a weak team in his first start, because he probably would have gotten pounded by a team like the Red Sox or Tigers pitching the way he did in his first game.

I'm surprised at how well Bobby Abreu is playing, because even major league scouts were saying he looked like he had never played baseball before just a few weeks ago. Melky Cabrera seems to be sparking them with some youthful energy and speed in the outfield. One question: is Johnny Damon a good enough offensive player now to be a regular DH? I think not. He is reminding me a little of Chuck Knoblauch at the end of his mostly successful career. The Yankeed moved him all over the field, trying to find a place where he could contribute, and he never did again. Damon looks like he doesn't have much left to offer a good team. Maybe it's time to trade him while they can still get something in return.

I expect the Yankees to trade for Mark Texeira or Todd Helton sooner rather than later. There is no way they will go any length of time with Josh Phelps and Miguel Cairo playing a premier offensive position. They are probably also looking to upgrade the bullpen and maybe get a more experienced 5th starter. It would be funny if they traded for Shawn Chacon again, hoping he can repeat what he did a few years ago for them.

If they make the playoffs this year, Joe Torre should go straight to sainthood, with a brief stop at Cooperstown to make his Hall of Fame acceptance speech. Yankee fans don't know how fortunate they have been the past decade to have the kind of success they have had.

© Judy Kamilhor 2007

Mets a mess

2007-06-11T16:07:00.000-04:00

This is probably going to end up as the low point of a successful Met season, but it sure is ugly. It doesn't help a team to have all five of its top outfielders hurt at the same time. And a few for extended periods. Lastings Milledge would have been playing every day if he hadn't gotten hurt early on for New Orleans, the Mets' Triple-A team. Beltran didn't go on the disabled list recently, but he is definitely not 100%. His power seems to be gone at the moment. He said he has another quad injury, and he is the kind of player that gets all his strength from his legs.

In addition to the outfield problems, Carlos Delgado is really hurting the team. He has not been able to sustain any kind of hot streak, and he seems to always come up when they need a big hit, and he has rarely delivered. He's one of the players I respect the most, but something needs to change. My suggestion is to move him down to 6th for a few weeks, moving David Wright up to 4th and Shawn Green 5th. It's also time to move Lo Duca back to 2nd, because Reyes is not scoring when he gets on nearly as much as last year, and I think Lo Duca is the best number two hitter on the team. It's time for some hit-and-runs with those two.

Reyes' lack of power, and occasional lack of hustle is getting worrisome. I've noticed that he is not running hard when he hits a grounder right at the 2nd baseman or 1st baseman. He actually looks tired to me, but it's time Willie Randolph reminded him that he needs to run hard whenever he hits the ball.

The bench needs some rearranging, too. I would like to see Ruben Gotay turned into a super-utility guy. He has been almost exclusively a 2nd baseman in the past, but he seems athletic and strong enough to play anywhere except catcher and pitcher. There is no reason in the world why Julio Franco should ever start at 3B with a guy like Gotay around. Again, it's time to start Franco's coaching or managing career. They can't afford to keep him around for his wisdom when he is contributing nothing on the field. One guy that is available right now is Brady Clark, and he would help until all the injured outfielders come back.

When/if Moises Alou returns, I would give him a first baseman's glove. Right now, Shawn Green can play first, and then Franco. I would give Delgado some more rest, and it would be nice to be able to move either Alou or Green to 1B for a game or two when more speed is needed in the outfield (like when Perez or Maine pitch).

The pitching has finally given out, after trying to win with no offensive support the past few weeks. The two guys who are contributing the least are Guillermo Mota and Scott Schoeneweis. Mota I can understand, because he just came back from a long suspension, but Schoeneweis needs to go on the DL. He says he has a torn tendon in his leg, and he sure pitches like it; he's all arm, with no follow-through. He's not good enough to pitch well at less than 100%, and they need another lefty to replace him.

As far as how the pitchers are being used, I was really shocked when Randolph removed Pedro Feliciano after a walk with Ryan Howard coming up. He went to Wagner in the 8th, always a bad idea. Feliciano is their best setup guy right now, and their best pitcher against lefties. He's on the team to pitch to Ryan Howard in the 8th inning! Just because he walked one guy, doesn't mean he is having a bad outing. To me, Randolph was just asking for Wagner to blow his first save of the season, when they could least afford it.

The Mets have been very fortunate that the Braves have been struggling with injuries and poor play of their own, but that won't last. The Phillies have woken up, and the Marlins are surprisingly close to the top again. I think the Mets need to trade for at least one more reliable reliever, and even consider upgrading at 1B or 2B. Mark Texeira and Todd Helton might be available, and they are huge upgrades over Delgado right now. Jose Valentin is back, but he's not fully healthy, and his knee could give out at any time. It might be a good idea to get a better, younger, and healthier guy to play every day, and put Valentin on the bench or trade him.

© Judy Kamilhor 2007

What Kind of Team Are the Yankees?

2007-06-07T18:46:00.000-04:00

The Yankees won two out of three against the Red Sox. Then they lost the first game against the struggling White Sox. Then they won the next two games. They have won only four of their past ten games, and are in last place with a 25-31 record. What does it all mean? They play like a .500 team at best. They can't maintain a high level of success for more than a few days at a time, which is a bad sign. When Clemens starts his latest tour of duty, will he give them that psychological edge that they seem to need? My guess is that unless he pitches consistently and exceptionally well, and for more than five innings a game, the Yankees are going to end up out of the playoffs for the first time in a very long time. If I had to bet, I would say they will be playing golf in October, a week or two earlier than usual.

The Mets will have some interesting roster decisions to make in the next few weeks. When Valentin, Green, and Alou come back, who gets sent down/away? I hate to have to say it, but it looks like Julio Franco's coaching career should start very soon. If I were the Mets, I'd offer him a player/coach job for their Double A or Triple A teams. He just doesn't offer enough on the field at this point to keep him.

The moves I would make are: send down Gomez and Newhan, and release Franco (assuming he passes through waivers, he can choose whether to become a free agent or accept a job in the Mets organization). I would keep Ben Johnson and Ruben Gotay, to give them a more athletic and powerful bench. Endy Chavez's injury might open the door to the next move: recall Lastings Milledge as soon as he is ready to play. He becomes an important player, especially if Alou doesn't start healing fast.

© Judy Kamilhor 2007

Drugs and Baseball

2007-06-04T14:25:00.000-04:00

I want to know. Who did what, when, and perhaps why. I want to know the truth about steroids, human growth hormone, amphetamines, recreational drugs, and gene splicing, or whatever comes next. And at the same time, I don't want to know. Not if it means dozens of players getting suspended mid-season, or someone deciding which records should have asterisks next to them.

What we know for sure is simply that a handful of players have failed drug tests in the past few of years, and that more than the 5% threshold failed tests in the survey year of 2003. We have an admission of guilt, sort-of, from Jason Giambi, we have the book about Barry Bonds that has not been challenged legally by Bonds, and we have a whole boat-load of suspicions and rumors about all kinds of players.

The problem is obvious, the solution not so much. Here's what I would like to see:

amnesty for honesty
no asterisks
stronger testing
Bud Selig showing up when Bonds breaks Aaron's record
players taking responsibility for their actions

Amnesty for honesty

From here on out, if a player admits to using steroids or other performance enhancing drugs in the past, he should not be suspended. There should be a publicly available list compiled, that says what the player was taking, and when, so the fans can make their own decisions about how much impact the drugs had on the player's performance. This does not prevent suspension for failing tests from now on, however.

On the other side, if a player is proven to have used these drugs and doesn't come clean, he should be suspended for at least 50 games. We want to know, but it's not about punishment, unless the player keeps denying the truth.

The reason this is important is that there are several ongoing investigations that are likely to result in a huge list of names of current players. It serves no purpose to suspend all of them at once, which would ruin the season for everyone. I think it is punishment enough that everyone knows which players cheated and when.

No asterisks

It isn't fair to put asterisks next to some records, because the truth is that many players were cheating that did not get caught. Remember Brady Anderson's 50 homeruns? Since there is absolutely no way to sort out the "clean" records from the "dirty" ones, it's best to avoid placing markers on records by confirmed drug users. By the end of this process, we may know the names of a lot of these guys, and we can hold onto our suspicions about the ones that don't get caught or come forward.

One logical flaw that I hear all the time is that since Barry Bonds cheated, Hank Aaron didn't. The fact is, one thing has nothing to do with the other. I doubt very much that Aaron did steroids, but we don't know anything for a fact. We do know that many players have been using amphetamines for decades, and we will never know what impact they had on older records. Tom House admitted to experimenting with steroids and other substances in the 1960s, and several people have suggested that other players were doing it, too. Unless they come forward, we'll never know, but it is wrong to assume that our childhood heroes were all perfect angels, and that today's players are all cheaters. Everything wrong with the game now, has been wrong since the beginning; we are just much more aware of the problems now because of the increase of media coverage, and the changing standards of reporting on sports heroes.

Stronger testing

The current system is an improvement, but it is far from adequate. For one thing, there needs to be a lot more off-season testing, and no way to avoid those tests. Secondly, I think it's time to move to blood testing, which is much more reliable, and can detect drug use for longer periods. The best thing that could happen with all of this new attention to the use of drugs, is to create a new generation of players that don't want to cheat, and don't worry that they have to cheat to keep up. Part of that involves better education on the health effects of using steroids and other drugs. There are some pretty nasty side effects that I'm sure most players would be happy to live without. Has anyone seen that PSA with the shrinking basketball?

Bud Selig showing up when Bonds breaks Aaron's record

The commissioner needs to be there, regardless of what he thinks about Bonds becoming the all-time homerun leader. He does not have to act happy, but he needs to acknowledge what has happened. Bonds hasn't failed a drug test that we know of, and until there is proof, he needs to be treated with the respect that comes along with this accomplishment. I don't like Bonds any more than anyone else likes him, but there needs to be some demonstration of acknowledgement from MLB that something historic has taken place. Let the courts prove that Bonds is a cheater/criminal if indeed he is. If/when Bonds passes Aaron, it is a good time to examine the steroid situation and have a frank discussion of what it all means. The idea that people should not talk about steroids is stupid and pointless. We need answers, not more secrecy.

Players taking responsibility for their actions

Jason Giambi and Guillermo Mota are two of the very few players who have attempted to be honest about steroids. I applaud them for that, and don't think Giambi should be punished for talking. I'm fine with him playing out the rest of his contract and then walking away. I know he cheated, and I know (unlike Giambi himself, apparently) that his use of steroids inflated his power numbers for many years. I saw what he used to look like, and can imagine that he would have been a good hitter, with lots of walks, and average power, if he made a different decision. He probably would have been healthier in the long run, too, and wouldn't be breaking down now. I don't need to see Giambi suspended, and I think it would only serve to keep other players from taking responsibility for their own actions. If you want trust, you need to act in a trustworthy way. Telling the truth is a great way to do this.

Caroms Off the Wall:

It's weird that the Mets are missing their entire starting outfield and their second baseman, and that for most of the season, the Yankees were missing production from those same positions, even though all of their playes were more or less healthy. The Mets and Yankees are both older teams, but the Mets play young and the Yankees don't.

© Judy Kamilhor 2007

Trades, trades, and rumors....

2007-06-01T14:31:00.000-04:00

Now that Jason Giambi is unavailable, look for the Yankees to make a big push for Todd Helton and Brian Fuentes of the Rockies. I don't have any special info here, just common sense. The Yankees are desperate, the Rockies aren't going anywhere this year, and Helton fills a big need for the Yankees at 1B and in improving the tired offense. My guess is that the only reason this hasn't happened yet is that the Rockies are asking for Phil Hughes and/or the rest of the Yanks' top prospects.

© Judy Kamilhor 2007

Something I thought I would never see

2007-05-28T16:55:00.000-04:00

This weekend produced an abnormally high number of series sweeps, including all four series involving the Mets, Braves, Yankees, and Red Sox going the way I wanted. The odds of that happening are about 1 in a million, and show just how far the Yankees have fallen. Of course, they were playing Los Angeles de Anaheim, a team that always seems to have their number.

It is only a matter of days before the Yankees start firing/trading/executing people. They miss Gary Sheffield a lot more than they, or I, expected. Watching Sheffield hitting against Fausto Carmona last night reminded me of why Sheffield is so intimidating. He is an angry man with an angry swing. Even when his numbers aren't great, he makes the players batting in front of and behind him that much better, as shown on ESPN's telecast of the Detroit-Cleveland game last night. The Yankees aren't scaring anyone anymore. Aura and mystique are on the DL.

Losing Mike Gonzalez to Tommy John surgery is a huge blow to the Braves. It's the difference between the Braves having a bullpen about as good the Mets, and the Braves having a clearly inferior pen. The Mets rotation is much deeper than the Braves, and now that Tim Hudson has slowed down after an awesome start, it puts too much pressure on John Smoltz to do it all himself, which no pitcher can do. Chipper Jones being out certainly isn't helping things, either. Watch out for the Phillies to make a run at the Braves for 2nd, although they won't end up ahead of the Braves at the end.

Milwaukee has been slumping since they played the Mets, but I expect them to have a great second half and run away with the worst division in MLB. The only question is who will come in 2nd, and whether that team will be over .500 at the end. The Pirates are doing better than expected, with all their young pitching, and may just claim their first 2nd place finish in forever.

Caroms Off the Wall:

Curt Schilling should pitch more and blog less. He can't stand being the 4th best starter on the Red Sox (until Lester comes back, and he falls to 5th), so he is having an attention addict temper tantrum. I loved his criticism of Bonds and then the retraction, thus making himself look like a stand-up guy, and getting another couple of days of headlines. It's like Munchausen's Syndrome by Proxy, where a mother makes her child sick and then comes to the rescue in dramatic fashion.

© Judy Kamilhor 2007

It's May 19, and all is well in my baseball universe

2007-05-19T21:28:00.000-04:00

On Monday, May 21, the Empire State Building will be blue and orange, to honor the Mets for winning the first Subway Series of the season. My guess is that if the Mets sweep tomorrow, someone big will pay, probably Joe Torre, and maybe Brian Cashman, too. I wouldn't be surprised to see Joe Girardi, currently a broadcaster for the Yankees, and last year's Manager of the Year of the Florida Marlins, named to replace Joe. The owner is fuming down in Tampa, and I don't know how much longer he can wait before doing something drastic.

As for the Mets, as great as they look right now, it will be a long and challenging season to stay ahead of the Braves. As I write this, the Braves are demonstrating one of the signs of a winning team: after getting blasted 13-3 in the first game of a day-night double-header by the Red Sox today, they are now leading 8-0 in game 2 behind their ace and future Hall-of-Famer John Smoltz. A good team will follow up a terrible game with a great game. A bad team will get beat again, and start to doubt themselves more and more.

On the other hand, people seem to forget that the Mets have more injuries right now than the Yankees, and are missing more key people, and that they should get stronger as guys like El Duque, Pedro Martinez, Jose Valentin, and Moises Alou return. They are even getting Guillermo Mota back in a few days, after his steroid suspension. I never liked the guy, but I have to admire someone who actually admitted to cheating and apologizing right away.

It sure looks like 1986 again, Mets-Red Sox in the World Series. Trivia for the day: Roger Clemens and Tom Seaver both pitched for the 1986 Red Sox! Maybe the Mets should sign Seaver for an inning once old Clemens is back on the mound for the Yankees. The only way Clemens will pitch in the World Series this year is if he gets traded from the Yankees at the trading deadline to a contender.

Short Hops:

I was wrong about Mike Pelfrey figuring things out. He was rightly sent down to get it together in New Orleans. He'll be back, but he needs to develop some killer instinct. Jorge Sosa has been so good in his first three starts that the Mets may not even need Pelfrey this year.

© Judy Kamilhor 2007

My Article on the Advocate Web Site

2007-05-19T21:04:00.000-04:00

Please click here to read my article on people chosen last in sports as kids that is on the Advocate's Web site.

Monthly Review and Looking Forward for the Mets and Yankees

2007-05-02T11:31:00.000-04:00

After one month, the Mets look as good as last year, except they have much more competition. The main change from last year is the Braves returning to almost elite status, promising to make a more interest playoff race in the NL East.

The NL Central is finally going as I have been predicting for a couple of years, with the Brewers seeming to have made that step up to the top of the division, and the Cardinals finally letting go of their grip on the top spot. It almost seems like time is going in reverse, and the Cardinals won the World Series last year to honor the memory of Josh Hancock, their 29 year old relief pitcher who died in a traffic accident a few days ago.

The NL West is unpredictable as usual, and any of four teams could end up on top when the last game is played. Jake Peavy is finally pitching like the ace he always seemed to be, but Trevor Hoffman seems to be going through the same thing as Mariano Rivera, aging closer syndrome. My theory--and of course we will never know--is that older pitchers are having a harder time adjusting to the new drug testing system than younger pitchers who have had tougher testing in the minor leagues for a few years. It's no accident that most of the top pitchers in the NL this year are relatively young. And it's not just steroids, I think amphetamines are more of an issue for relief pitchers, especially closers. Just my intuition, but it would be interesting to find out who failed amphetamine tests last year besides Barry Bonds.

The AL East has developed oddly, with the Yankees fighting to get out of last place. The last few years they have gotten off to bad starts, and somehow managed to win the division anyway. Not this time. They might still end up in the playoffs (I predicted a wild card for them before the season), but they aren't beating Boston this year. Boston's pitching is much better, and the offense and defense is close enough to allow the pitching to be the difference. Joe Torre is the best man to turn things around, but there are only so many times that can happen. There is no Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon to come out of nowhere and pitch like all-stars.

The AL Central is going to be a great race, with four good teams going down to the wire. The Tigers need Kenny Rogers to come back strong, and I think they will eventually end up on top, by a hair. The Wild Card probably won't come from this division, only because they will all beat each other enough to hurt their won-lost records and allow the Yankees or Toronto to win the Wild Card.

The AL West is falling into its usual pattern. Look for Oakland to make their annual second half charge, but Los Angeles de Anaheim will prevail.

Looking at the Mets in more detail, the biggest surprise is Shawn Green's hitting, and the biggest disappointment is Aaron Heilman's relief pitching. Joe Smith (needs a great nickname) is clearly better than Heilman, and everyone else in the bullpen, and he should slide into the 8th inning role sooner rather than later. Wagner is pitching better than I expected, but we'll see how he does when the pressure is on.

The starters have been very good overall, and the best news is that Mike Pelfrey seems to be learning what Rick Peterson and Tom Glavine have been telling him about location and movement being more important than velocity. Last night, he really looked good after a terrible first inning. It was almost as if I could see the light bulb go on over his head, as he started throwing 91-92 mph sinkers instead of 95 mph straight fastballs that were either out of the strike zone, or easy to hit. Look for Pelfrey to have a strong rest of the season, and not a minute too soon. With El Duque having the first of his usual assortment of injuries, it is very important for Pelfrey to step up. Chan Ho Park looked dreadful in his first start, and I don't know how long they are going to stick with him to fill in.

The position players have been good overall, but there are some things that need to be addressed. At times, the defense and baserunning have looked surprisingly passive, and they need to get back to the swagger and aggressiveness that made them successful last year. Every once in a while, Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes, their two MVP candidates, look a little afraid of getting hurt. Beltran seems to shy away from contact on balls hit in the gap, and Reyes looks tentative on tag plays at times. It's understandable that they would want to avoid injuries, since the Mets would have a very hard time replacing either of them, but it's worrisome nonetheless. Players are more likely to get hurt when they hold back than when they go all out.

For the Yankees, the Philip Hughes injury is devastating, because now it comes back to Carl Pavano to bolster the shaky rotation. Look for a trade in the next few weeks for a veteran starter who can pitch deep into games. The guy they could really use is Livan Hernandez of the Diamondbacks. Getting Roger Clemens is not the answer, unless they use him in the bullpen to pitch 3 innings every 3 games. Clemens is a 5 inning pitcher, the last thing they need right now. This trend of using relievers for no more than one inning at a time is really foolish. At the rate the Yankees are going, they will need an entirely new bullpen by July.

© Judy Kamilhor 2007

Mets and Braves Deja Vu

2007-04-20T17:06:00.000-04:00

Weirdly, the Mets get ready to play the Braves, their only real division rival (sorry, Jimmy Rollins), after winning three straight blow-outs, just as they did earlier in the season. The Mets went to St. Louis and blew the Cards off the field three times, and then blasted the Braves in Atlanta in game one. The next two games were close games, and the Braves managed to win both, which perturbed Willie Randolph.

So here we are again, Mets are on a roll, and they get to play their old-time nemesis three times at Shea. Baseball often gives teams and players chances for redemption, or at least opportunities for improvement. Of course it's still very early, and I think the Mets and Braves will battle it out till the end this year, but here is a chance for the Mets to make a statement about just how dominant they are this year.

Better than last year, that's how dominant. Moises Alou replacing Cliff Floyd gives the Mets a much better left-right balance, and another power bat that Cliff wasn't providing last year. And, as much as people worry about the starters, remember last year's ridiculous parade of Jose Lima, Geremi Gonzalez, and Manny Aybar? I would rather take this year's rotation than last year any day. (Good-bye, Steve Trachsel.)

The only question mark is the bullpen, a place where the Braves may be better than the Mets, but so far, it looks fine. The Mets cannot afford an injury to any of their key relievers, but if things break right, they should be fine until the injured reinforcements come back. I'm expecting Pedro Martinez to win some games at the end of the season, and maybe move one of the starters into the bullpen. I don't expect Duaner Sanchez or Guillermo Mota to help much if at all.

Mets vs. Braves, bring it on.

© Judy Kamilhor 2007

What does the future hold for one pitcher?

2007-04-20T14:14:00.000-04:00

Rick Vanden Hurk. Remember the name. He's a rookie starting pitcher for the Florida Marlins, and he might turn into something special. Watching him pitch against the Mets last night made me wish Tom Seaver was providing the color commentary. Seaver was one of the announcers when Brandon Webb made his first major league start against the Mets, and Seaver said that Webb was going to be great. I think he would have said the same thing about Vanden Hurk, even though he ended up getting lit up by the relentless Met offense.

The key for this extremely inexperienced former catcher from the Netherlands is to learn how to handle adversity and most importantly, to learn from his mistakes instead of getting down on himself. He was sitting on the bench after the Mets pummeled him last night, and he looked like he was in shock. I hope someone talked to him about it, and found the positive, which is that his stuff is unhittable. His fastball is mid-90s with rising action, and he has a wicked curve ball that the Met announcers were already comparing to his country-man Bert Blyleven (who belongs in the Hall of Fame).

Keith Hernandez made the point several times that this kid would be better off in Triple A right now, learning how to pitch while dominating his opponents with his two plus pitches. His third pitch, which was either a tight slider or cutter that rarely moved enough to fool anyone, needs a lot of work, and the major leagues is not the place for that to happen.

He got beat because he made a lot of bad pitches, and seemed to get discouraged when the Mets were able to make him pay for most of his mistakes. He still managed to make a lot of Mets look silly, and that's not easy to do. If he learns from his mistakes, he's going to be a star.

Caroms Off The Wall

Jose Reyes looks like the NL MVP to me. No one influences a game like he does. He has gone from a speedster who never walks and gets hurt all the time, to a player who draws almost a walk a game, gets intentionally walked with runners on base, and plays every inning of every game. Plus, he's a gold glove shortstop, and has 30 homerun power, and will lead the league in triples every year. Jose, Jose, Jose!

Observations on the first few days of the season

2007-04-05T11:03:00.000-04:00

The Mets look awesome. After an erratic spring training, people in NY were questioning whether the Mets were going to be as good as last year. So far, they look better than last year, especially the starting pitchers. The old top two starters (Tom Glavine and Orlando Hernandez) look as effective as ever, and the old outfielders that looked even older in the spring, Moises Alou and Shawn Green, look young again. The defense has been spectacular, turning double plays and catching every catchable ball all over the field. The Mets certainly look like the best team in the National League, and they should win the division again, assuming the bullpen doesn't implode.

The first two games provided a glimpse of how Willie Randolph will use his late inning guys. He brought in setup man Aaron Heilman in crucial situations in the 8th inning in each game, and then removed him for the 9th inning, choosing to go with closer Billy Wagner. It worked both times, but I wouldn't manage the bullpen that way. In game one, I would have double-switched to bring in Endy Chavez to play right field and lead off the 9th inning, and left Heilman in to finish the game. He threw 2 pitches, getting a phenomenal double play from Jose Valentin, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Delgado. The Mets went into the bottom of the 9th inning with a 5 run lead; to me, there is no reason in the world to bring Wagner into that situation.

In the second game, the score was closer, and Heilman got a huge fly out with 2 runners on base and the best hitter in baseball at the plate in Albert Pujols. Heilman threw 5 pitches. The Mets went into the 9th inning with a 4-1 lead. Why take Heilman out? I know most managers automatically put their closer in to start the 9th inning in any save situation, but I don't have to agree with it. I personally would rather have Heilman pitching in a clutch situation than Wagner; Wagner even admitted it himself that there are other relievers on the Mets with better stuff than his, mentioning Heilman specifically.

It is hard for me to imagine any team with Billy Wagner as its closer winning the World Series. He reminds me of Armando Benitez, except that Benitez was much more dominant than Wagner early in the season when he was with the Mets. Wagner has not dominated at all, usually putting at least 2 guys on base every inning he pitches. The more important the game, the more likely that Wagner will blow the lead.

The rest of the bullpen is very unpredictable, although I really like Joe Smith, and am glad the Mets had the guts to put him on the team ahead of some more experienced pitchers. I think Pedro Feliciano will have another great year, and will get more late inning work than Scott Schoeneweis, who does not impress me. He's a veteran, but he's never been consistently effective for any length of time. I think the Mets will end up regretting trading Heath Bell and Royce Ring for Jon Adkins and Ben Johnson, unless Johnson develops quickly and gets a chance to play.

As for the other teams, I predicted the Red Sox to win the AL East again. I have done this just about every year, and it's hard to tell if it's wishful thinking or not. Obviously in 2004, I was ultimately right that the Red Sox would surpass the Yankees, even if I expected them to do it in the regular season as well as the playoffs. This year, I think the key is Curt Schilling. He didn't look good in the opener, and if he is not one of the league's best starters, it will make it very difficult for the Red Sox to finish ahead of the Yankees, no matter how well Beckett and Matsuzaka do. I am rooting for Jon Lester to come back from cancer to help in the back end of the rotation.

I was really looking forward to seeing Jonathan Papelbon as a starter, because I thought that the Red Sox would have one of the best rotations in recent times. Unfortunately, they needed him more in the closer role, where he will help the team more this year. I would have tried Josh Beckett as a closer myself. I think he is actually more suited to closing, for many reasons, including his ultra-intensity and his blister issue. Perhaps pitching 4 innings a week would give his fingers a better chance to stay blister free. As a starter, he needs his curveball, and that is supposedly what causes the blisters. As a closer, he could throw one curve ball a game, as a strikeout pitch.

The Yankees look like a very good team, and Brian Cashman has implemented the plan to build from within by developing young players instead of the old Yankee way of trading all their top prospects for aging all-stars. They should do very well, but I think it's very possible that something big will go wrong, and they won't be able to recover. The most likely trouble spots are injuries to their key players: Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, Chien-ming Wang (already happened), Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, or Robinson Cano. The outfield has 4 good players for 3 spots, so they can afford one injury there, and it also has already happened now that Johnny Damon has a leg problem. I expect that once all their position players are healthy, Melky Cabrera will end up playing more, and Josh Phelps/Doug Mientkiewicz will play less, with Giambi moving to first base, where his throwing yips will drive fans crazy.

Joe Torre looks like he is getting too old to deal with the daily grind of managing the Yankees. I respect what he has done, and I respect him as a person, but it is getting to be time for a change. Don Mattingly might be the best guy for the job either in 2008, or even this year, if the Yanks get off to a bad start.

Caroms Off the Wall

I'd like to wish Josh Hamilton a successful season. I always pull for the great recovery stories, and this guy has hit bottom enough for one lifetime. There's always an opportunity to change your life, or as Yogi said: "it ain't over 'til it's over."

Mike Piazza is finally a DH. I'm rooting for him to add to his Hall of Fame credentials, and help the A's pull their annual late season surge to make the playoffs.

Just to clarify the whole Dice-K thing, his first name is actually pronounced that way in Japanese. It's not an A-Rod like abbreviation like many people think; it's phonics, MLB style.

2007 Predictions (made on 4/1/2007 at 2 PM, before the first game)

2007-04-05T10:54:00.000-04:00

AL East

Boston
New York Yankees
Toronto
Baltimore
Tampa Bay

AL Central

Detroit
Minnesota
Cleveland
Chicago
Kansas City

AL West

Los Angeles de Anaheim
Oakland
Texas
Seattle

NL East

New York Mets
Atlanta
Philadelphia
Florida
Washington

NL Central

Milwaukee
St. Louis
Chicago
Houston
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh

NL West

San Diego
Los Angeles Dodgers
Arizona
Colorado
San Francisco

As baseball fades away from the papers . . .

2006-11-27T18:27:00.000-05:00

This is the time of year I wish I were a General Manager. To me, this is the most interesting part of the process of building a baseball team, and very little of the work gets reported to the fans, unless you have a contact on the inside. Right now, Omar Minaya and Brian Cashman are trying to follow the organizational blue print for designing a World Series winning team in 2007, without destroying the future by trading away too many top prospects. It's always a challenge to focus on improving now, without losing sight of the next few years; both the Mets and Yankees have some older players who will need replacing in the near future.

So far, Brian Cashman has been very creative in getting rid of guys he doesn't want (Sheffield and Jaret Wright), and replaced them with pitching prospects, while keeping Sheffield away from the Red Sox, the Yankees' major division rival. The only move that I disagree with is the resigning of Mike (I'm still recovering from the Japan trip) Mussina. I don't think it's a coincidence that the Yankees haven't won a World Series since Mussina joined the team. Not that it's all his fault, by any means, but he has a really clear pattern of pitching just well enough to lose in the big games. He will need to take whatever Kenny Rogers was taking, if he is to become a post-season asset for the Yankees in the next two years.

As for the Mets, they are doing the typical New York thing: sign old guys with histories of success, and trade away a bunch of young and talented pitchers that may come back to haunt them. In one of the few moves where they actually got younger, they gave up Henry Owens and Matt Lindstrom, both of whom throw close to 100 mph, for two younger lefthanded pitchers who also have potential. Here's where the scouts earn their money; projecting pitchers is extremely difficult, and can be the difference between winning the World Series and not making the playoffs a few years from now. I think Henry Owens will be a very successful relief pitcher as soon as next season, and Lindstrom is probably going to make the Marlins next year as well. With the trade of Heath Bell and Royce Ring, the Mets have given away a lot of their bullpen depth, and haven't noticeably improved any of their weaknesses.

I would have preferred any of the available secondbasemen--Ron Belliard, Mark Loretta, or Adam Kennedy--to resigning Jose Valentin, who overachieved last year, and is another year older. Moises Alou is one of those guys (kind of like Billy Wagner and Carlos Delgado) that the Mets would have been better off getting a year earlier. He missed a lot of time again last year, and is really just as fragile (and older) as Cliff Floyd. On the other hand, he bats right handed, which is a plus, and when he plays he is usually more productive than Cliff.

Of course, if the Mets sign Barry Zito, and trade for Dontrelle Willis, all of the other moves will fall off the radar completely. It looks like they are willing to trade one of my favorites, Aaron Heilman, and Lastings Milledge (the future Albert Belle?), and should be able to get a pretty good pitcher for that package, preferably Willis. I've seen Dontrelle pitch at Shea Stadium each of the past two years, and he has been the best player on the field in both games. He seems to have been born to pitch for the Mets, and I think he would be one of the best acquisitions they could ever make. Zito would also be a good move, because he is more mature than most pitchers, and he should thrive again under Rick Peterson. The best thing is, they won't have to give up young players to get him, just money, and Citibank is taking care of the money these days. Most likely, they will only get one top pitcher, and they can still lose Tom Glavine to the Braves, if the Braves want him back and he decides to return home to finish his excellent career.

The bottom line is that the Mets should still be the best team in the National League next year, and this time anything less than reaching the World Series will be a disappointment, at least to me.

© 2006 Judy Kamilhor

Why I love baseball, once again

2006-10-08T19:58:00.000-04:00

Okay, so my predictions for the first round haven't been stellar so far. The idea of good pitching beating good hitting seems to have been true, at least in the Yankees-Tigers series. Kenny Rogers's performance was one of the most astonishing things I've ever seen in baseball, and I've seen a lot of games in my time. He was pitching like he was possessed, maybe by the spirit of Gaylord Perry. All that cap-touching he was doing reminded me of the old spit-balling Hall-of-Famer. Whatever he was doing, it certainly worked. I think he psyched the Yankees right out of the series.

And I never got to use my line about the Rogers-Randy Johnson matchup, where the only guys intimidated by those two pitchers are the cameramen. In the end, the performances by Mussina, Johnson, and Jaret Wright were fairly predictable, while the Tigers' last three starters exceeded expectations enough to shut down the "greatest lineup of all time" according to Joe Morgan and others. And the Tigers' bullpen showed they were better than the Yankees' group, not a huge surprise, really. Does anyone throw harder than Joel Zumaya? I will miss seeing Alex Rodriguez's pouty face after some of those strikeouts by Zumaya and Verlander, especially. Where will A-Rod be next year? I hear the Yomiuri Giants could still use a slugger.

And, well, I was right about the Mets overcoming some adversity. At this point, they seem to have all the confidence and talent in the world, and the Padres and Cardinals don't impress me very much. Looks like it could be Oakland-Mets, a la 1973.

Even if I weren't a Mets' fan, I would say that baseball needs Jose Reyes in the World Series. Watching him run, play defense, and dance in the dugout are joys to behold, and he would single-handedly convert non-fans to fans with his amazin' smile and talent.

The Twins didn't win, but I think it's more a testament to how ready Oakland seems to be to take that next step up to the later playoff rounds. Both teams have great bullpens, some good young starters, and a few dynamic offensive players. This may have been a case where the Twins used up everything they had in passing the Tigers at the end to reclaim the division title they held a couple of years ago.

Oakland-Detroit looks like a great series, with two somewhat similar teams playing their best baseball of the year. It's good for the game to get some exposure for these guys.

And now I get to use another line: If Huston Street ever pitched for the Mets or Yankees, he'd have to pronounce his name Houston Street.

© Judy Kamilhor 2006